比特币的死穴并不是通货紧缩

比特币的死穴并不是通货紧缩

    


A few days ago in the know to see such a problem:

“If the world is unified with bitcoin, the economy will be more stable?”

The highest ranked answer means “bitcoin this stuff is not as natural deflation monetary use. Will be the fastest speed out of circulation, then invented other currencies.” The reason is that in the case of a fixed amount of bitcoin, commodities continue to increase, which means that bitcoin will continue to rise, while prices will continue to fall. Conclusions: we will return to direct exchange, to the appreciation of the bitcoin store in the hands of.

This is a common view, at first glance very reasonable, but after careful scrutiny, we will find that this common blame for deflation, is wrong.

Firstly, the invention of money to solve the problem of double coincidence of demand, greatly facilitate the exchange of human behavior. People would rather bear a certain degree of inflation is bad, is not willing to return to barter, similarly, a certain degree of deflation will not let people return to barter.

Then, before we discuss the definition of deflation, we must first clear the deflation. The definition of deflation is common in the decline in the overall price level. But this definition covers too many problems, such as we can not distinguish the reason of falling prices is reducing the amount of money, or produce goods increased. A more accurate definition of deflation is to reduce the money supply; in contrast, inflation is the increase in money supply, so that we can see the problem more clearly, it increases productivity, more goods are produced, why prices are still rising? The answer is that there are people through the issuance of more money, put your money into his pocket.

After defining the definition, we will find that, at present, bitcoin is a kind of currency inflation. The number of each day bitcoin will be Nakamoto set increased, until all the coins have been dug out. After that, we count occasionally lost some money, bitcoin is a currency deflation.

Arguably, in a relatively stable money supply, we should not be afraid of productivity brought by falling prices – who does not love his money can buy more things? But some economists tell us that deflation will increase the real debt, killing the total demand, reduced spending led to the company’s sales and profits decline, eventually increased unemployment. So, people gradually formed the harmful deflation — even more harmful than inflation — the views in favor of “mild inflation”. But this argument is reliable?

We first look at the former, the increase in real debt deflation theory. In deflation, people have to sell more goods and services to repay the debt, the creditor will benefit, and the debtor will be damaged. We do not intend to deny this, but we must point out that, in a complex, many people tend to both creditors and debtors, at this time we are unable to determine who is a net beneficiary, and who is a net loss of party. In addition, if deflation rate is expected to in the bitcoin world is the case, the nominal interest rate will change accordingly. The loss will be reduced accordingly. Finally, it also reduces the debt impulse, forcing us to become more cautious.

Look at the stifle demand and consumption in view of deflation. Some people think that triggering deflation — falling prices — will allow people to reduce consumption, as long as the price will be cheaper to wait for second days, people have been waiting, which means less demand. But that is not the case, with the intelligent mobile phone as an example, even though we all know that a smart mobile phone prices will continue to fall after it went on sale, we will still be in accordance with their own needs to buy it, there will be very few people deliberately wait for the mobile phone when the lowest price before delisting to buy. If people because of falling prices and to defer spending, they will be hungry and cold, in rags. In fact, no matter how consumers expect the price changes, people will always be in the current consumption of a certain number of commodities.

To sum up, we should not worry about deflation itself, more details can refer to a forthcoming book “Philip Baggs asked” deflation.

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