Every year since 2016, I have made predictions on the development of the industry in the next year. If you focus on incremental changes year after year, you realize that everything is connected, and you can foresee some exciting results. There is no doubt that 2021 will be the year when blockchain and cryptocurrency will occupy the center of the economic stage, and this is the future I see. 1) In 2020, the world began to understand the intrinsic value of bitcoin as “digital gold”. In 2021, we will witness that Ethereum is also understood as “digital oil”. In the coming year, Ethereum will consolidate its position as the cornerstone of the future global digital economy through the guarantee of global contracts. Contract is the link of the world. Sales contract, university admission notice, employment notice, insurance policy, medical prescription, confidentiality agreement, ISDA agreement and so on are all contracts. Yes, the earth works by contract (not Dunkin ‘). Ethereum makes the contract truly digital, and the digitization of the contract is equal to the digitization of the global economy. At present, the global economic valuation has reached 270 trillion US dollars (by contrast, bitcoin will occupy 18 trillion US dollars of gold market). Ethereum has the opportunity to upgrade the entire economy, not just an asset class. 2) The first phase of Ethereum 2.0 will be implemented successfully. On December 1, Ethereum community successfully launched phase 0 of Ethereum 2.0. The network upgrade from proof of work to proof of stack will enable Ethereum to expand and run with less computing power. In 2021, we will see the first phase of Ethereum 2.0 go online and greatly improve its scalability. 3) Bitcoin will reach $50000. Bitcoin has a single purpose, but its supply is limited. As more and more institutional investors continue to buy bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will soar to $50000. 4) Ethereum will reach $2000. The upgrading of Ethereum 2.0 will enhance the network capability and attract more attention from enterprises and institutional investors, thus pushing the price of eth to a new height. 5) Defi’s TVL will exceed US $150 billion, and 2021 will be the year for defi to cross the chain. It is undeniable that Ethereum is the birthplace of most decentralized financial activities. But other networks will come into the field in a more substantive way and put other native tokens into Ethereum’s defi ecosystem. As the various token bitcoin (TBTC, Ren, wbtc) becomes more and more popular, we will see that the market value of bitcoin of $430 billion is mortgaged in defi. This will also multiply the TVL in defi. 6) With the development of Web 3.0, its value will be accumulated at the protocol layer, not the application layer. In Web 2.0, most of the value lies in the application layer of the stack. The world’s largest Internet company is not one that maintains the HTTP protocol, but one that provides the most valuable and deeply rooted experience for end users. However, in Web 3.0, the scope of the application layer will be narrowed down, and we will see the maximum value provided by the protocol infrastructure. 7) Layer 2 solutions will explode, and Ethereum will continue to consolidate its leading position as the first tier blockchain in 2021. Like any technology stack, an application consists of many layers. Taking Ethereum as the basic layer, we will see the explosion of layer-2 solutions. These solutions will enhance the scalability, privacy and interoperability of Ethereum main network with unique functions. The exponential growth of defi on Ethereum has led to a sharp rise in gas costs and a slower transaction speed. The progress of layer 2 technology will provide an extended solution for all micro transactions that do not need to happen on the main network. As a result, 2021 will be a breakthrough year for projects such as ZK rollups and optimism, as more and more dapps will move to two-tier solutions such as state channels, and the transaction throughput will increase to 100 to 2000 transactions per second (TPS). 8) IPFs and filecoin will become the global focus. In 2016, IBM said that 90% of the world’s data was created in the previous two years. Four years ago, the world produced 2.5 trillion bytes of data. Every connected device on the planet (smartphones, smart TVs, computers, cars) is generating data. As the amount of data generated grows exponentially year by year, the demand for cheap, accessible and unlicensed storage will also increase. However, today’s choice of data storage is in sharp contrast to the future demand, and enterprises and consumers will begin to realize the limitations of existing solutions. Entering the era of IPFs and filecoin. IPFs and filecoin are complementary layer 1 protocols that work together to provide decentralized storage. Since the launch of the main network in October, the storage capacity of filecoin has exceeded one exbibyte. The bridge between Ethereum, IFPs and filecoin is under construction. In 2021, we will see the whole workflow, from protocol and transaction to data storage and sharing, using decentralized protocol. 9) “Ethereum killer” needs to find a niche market, otherwise it will be killed. Over the years, all kinds of layer 1 blockchains have regarded themselves as “Ethereum killers”. Many of them promise to provide a faster and more complex smart contract platform, but in the end there is nothing to show off. In 2021, those “killers” who raised millions of dollars on their promise to capture Ethereum’s market share will need to create a niche use case for their platform, otherwise it may become irrelevant before any code is released. Ethereum’s dominance is comparable to Google’s share in search, and other agreements are promoting this hegemony by building a cross link bridge as one of its first integrations. These layer 1 networks are likely to be powered by specific use cases or technology preferences, such as near games, or dfinity will use web assembly instead of solidness. Ethereum may lose a small number of projects, but even if there is a new open source ecosystem around these other agreements, all roads will return to Ethereum as the basic settlement layer. 10) We’re going to see the start of the crypto IPO mania. Blockfi, Celsius and coinbase (which have already happened) will apply for an initial public offering (IPO). Within a year, coinbase’s valuation will rise to more than $40 billion. These companies should endorse some aspect of IPO and introduce a digital security mechanism, because many companies’ success is based on usurping the promise of the system they are about to join. 11) China will launch digital currency electronic payment (DCEP). Tens of thousands of people have tried the new digital currency and will continue to promote it before the 2022 Olympics. International financial centers like Singapore, Switzerland or Hong Kong may become the second country to issue CBDC. 12) The United States will continue to delay CBDC related progress, while more than a dozen other countries are firmly pursuing digital currency. The United States, paralyzed by the ravages of covid-19 and the turbulent presidential election, will spend most of 2021 dealing with the economic impact of the epidemic. Stimulus will continue to be distributed in a slow, simulated way, even as the use case for government issued digital currencies has become increasingly apparent. 13) We will witness the first major application areas adopted by enterprises in the public chain. Under the leadership of Microsoft’s Yorke Rhodes, ey’s Paul Brody and consensys’s John Wolpert, the open-source baseline protocol adopts the public Ethereum main network, and uses point-to-point messaging and zero knowledge encryption technology to connect the enterprise blockchain to the Ethereum public network. 14) NFT will be the main consumer use case for Ethereum. In November, the record for the highest value non homogenized token (NFT), a painting of the God V, worth about $141536.20, was refreshed. However, the record was broken a few days later. NFT has long been touted as an effective solution to fake goods. In 2021, we’re going to see NFT as a digital representation of a unique commodity, whether it’s art, music or collectibles. Innovators such as superrare and sorare will become market leaders in their respective industries. At that time, the children will trade the NFT of European Football League stars in the way they used to trade baseball cards. 15) Crypto venture capital will explode. Venture capital investment in Web 3.0 and encryption companies has grown steadily over the past five years, but 2021 will be a breakthrough year, driven by next-generation encryption venture capital. Considering that there are 100 people in Silicon Valley venture capital institutions who specialize in blockchain technology, these people will leave the company, raise $50 million in funds, and firmly establish the next generation of encryption venture capital companies. 16) The world’s largest derivatives exchange. In February 2021, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world’s largest derivatives exchange, will launch Ethereum futures, making Ethereum the second encrypted commodity registered with the commodity futures trading commission. This will clear the way for Ethereum exchange traded funds (although bitcoin’s development has been difficult so far).