Bitcoin currency market and encryption why in decline?

From $20000 at the end of 2017, to $3700 now, bitcoin falls again, the domestic and foreign currency analysts and industry heavyweights encryption, with analysis of reasons of bitcoin crash, hard BCH bifurcation, American SEC up ICO, old money Hailun, conspiracy theory etc..

The famous Silicon Valley venture capitalist Andrew Romans from a micro perspective to analyze why the encryption market in decline, and stood in a venture capital experts point to predict the trend of investment in 2019 encryption market.

In 2017 investors – particularly in the fourth quarter, investors want to buy bitcoin and etheric coins, the only purpose is to convert bitcoins into specific ICO tokens they want to invest in.

Bitcoin currency and etheric buyers do not actually want to have bitcoin currency or ethernet. They just want to buy ICO tokens, but they need to buy bitcoin currency and Ethernet as the short path to obtain what they want in the end.

These money holders do not want to sell their coins and etheric coins, they are waiting for prices, they are also bitcoin believers and etheric fang. Therefore, in a “business world”, bitcoin prices rose.

Then, those who completed the ICOs venture company into whale, they begin to polymerize into a small group, in December and January to sell their tokens, which will be a huge demand for dynamic bitcoin currency and Ethernet transfer to all sellers and etheric bitcoin currency. In the new year after the hangover subsides, startups need to convert their assets to pay for encryption of legal tender, to the engineer and support their startups.

Then there is a run on the bank panic, 2017 Q3 and Q4 US regulators because of the pressure of ICO suspended in early 2018. After a stop or a sharp slowdown in ICO. The new token issuer began to accept the legal tender without through the etheric coins, which kills more demand, leaving only the seller and hawker, and no buyers.

In the “business world”, the market dilemma. An interesting dynamic of the current market is all encrypted currency prices are highly correlated with each other. Just look at the CoinMarketCap on any token price, you will find there a perfect correlation between the majority of tokens. Bitcoin currency moves up and down together and etheric, most of the other tokens in the same way related.

The market should not be like this, but if there is no bank of these start-ups for analysis and reporting, like apple, Amazon, Microsoft and other companies do, now is the case. Therefore, bitcoin can raise or lower the price of other tokens, but now it seems that gravity works in two directions.

In 2018, there are also some things developed. Obviously, all these funded ICO was not achieved by the real rich technical experience angel or venture capitalists, they are not really want to invest in your hand. Previously, all these tokens with bitcoin and etheric coin prices, but now instead of drag them. They are related to each other, fall bitcoin currency and other mainstream currency and Ethernet is making “encryption” ship sank.

And what will happen is that all these vulnerable startups will eventually be eliminated, leaving some decent, giant companies better market performance. Today, South East Asia and around the world retail investors no longer gambling, no longer to the nearest ICO throwing cash, even to some block chain projects, but not more than the amount of the fourth quarter of 2017. Institutional investors and investment market in the past 80% encryption 20% retail investors. And from the current market, the 80% is institutional investors.

Andrew believes that if Pantera and 7BC.VC like a16z, Capital such a strong brand of venture capital venture in the level of due diligence, from its extensive investment channels for investment in start-ups, retail investors will be willing to invest, with investment in wind in accordance with local jurisdictions of the securities law.

It is time for the experienced Vc firm to raise the real risk investment funds, these teams are eligible for proper due diligence, to provide funding for the best team, and help the company through portfolio diversification and portfolio management, execution and investor risk. We have seen the return of equity financing reason — not just a token. Investors now have stocks and tokens. Some of the “pure ICO game” need only tokens, but for the real value of the project, only conducted due diligence, really old, investors can pay.

The new company will be funded in 2019, and in 2019, 2020 and 2021, the average listed than similar companies in 2017 is much better, may lead to a rebound in the market. Experienced entrepreneurs by venture capital support is now committed to block chain start-ups, this means that the number of the management team has gone beyond the original bitcoin anarchist.

Bitcoin itself is elastic, it through many “Mentougou incident” and numerous under periodic survival that bitcoin is long-term curve upward and to the right. In the end the sale of ICO and notorious repute tokens disappeared, the market will become more active. Many attempts to ICO managers think BTC and ETH will only be not enough money for encryption under the condition of rising currency. They not only have the business risk, but also increases the foreign exchange risk foolishly.

Therefore, the good news is that these vulnerable, should never be funded startups will be faster than expected to run out of cash, because their currencies in the currency conversion for encryption, as no value and they completed financing ideas. At present, the erosion of these tokens weaken the market will drive the market rose.

Andrew also predicted that we will see some killer startups rise and generate large-scale application scenarios, which will enable users to enter the mainstream of traditional encryption world, which will enhance the traffic encryption market. Some video games may also be because the encryption currency is not the same, such as “angry birds”, may promote the use of tokens. I want to see anyone else thought of things, such as Skype, everyone began to use, it will attract a large number of population into the encrypted world, because the value only in the world of encryption.

All enterprises must be transferred to the block chain, so no one is able to tamper with the number of sales volume or who get paid. All business, government and health care data should be placed in the block chain. Soon, if not signed a commercial agreement and trust the other party to tell you how many widgets in the sales China, America or Africa, it will not be accepted.

Once these commercial transactions or voting record in the block chain, no one can tamper with the data, all parties can trust each other. So, the market will rebound sharply and the long-term upward trend and right.

2019 is an excellent time to venture investment fund or investment venture investment company to block chain chain block as the focus, the Vc firm has a strong entrepreneurial experience, the investment team in achieving the best IRR risk investment performance and cash performance aspects of experience.

Bitcoin, in the sale of second-hand vehicle, I could not help but look at the price of the card

Oh, no, this year, last year, is also in 2018 January, I wrote an article titled “assemble their own computer, cost-effective? “Article, there is such a word to say:

I search for “card” in the Jingdong, according to sales order, the dark is not “out of stock” is “the appointment”.

For the goods, the price is rising, as shown below:

Some media reports said today, the domestic and the world’s largest bitcoin mining machine manufacturers, is a comprehensive settlement of their quarry, and start dumping their mines of second-hand vehicle, and even to “the mill demolished sell accessories”.

See here, I couldn’t help to check the card prices, or search “card” and according to the sales ranking in Jingdong. This time the top 20 cards only show a need to book, most of which is not out of stock card. I query a variety of graphics random price movements, and results in the first row of the ASUS 1060 price trend similar:

You can see from the chart, were significantly and positively related to graphics and the price of bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin prices in December last year reached the highest point in history, the RMB price approaching 100 thousand mark, but then in the wave of rapid decline, has now dropped to twenty-six thousand.

The card bitcoin price response a little delay, the highest price of 1060 above, ASUS appeared in last year (2018) in February, and then gradually lose confidence with bitcoin speculation, prices also continued to fall in the card.

Of course, as previously stated, the card bitcoin response delay, if no accident card price should also fall further.

Bitcoin will be halved in 2020 years: half price will fluctuate around

2012 and 2016: what do they have in common?

Bitcoin has experienced the so-called “half”, namely the annual bitcoin inflation has been reduced 50% algorithm. This is a part of the bitcoin deflation monetary policy, but also Austria economists called bitcoin “hard currency”.

If you look at the bitcoin price chart, you will notice that this year there is a common point. A year ago in half by the price of bitcoin, bitcoin prices rose sharply. In addition, in both cases, resulting in half of the rebound is a brutal parabolic appeared in just a few weeks after the trend in half.

With a bitcoin will halve in June 2020, when investors started to pay attention to this pattern. Historically, bitcoin prices began to price in half just about a year ago, this will lead to bitcoin in early 2019 bottomed out, then began to rebound in May 2019.

But if this is not the same? No, let us explore the reasons.

Bitcoin, gold and hard currency

Gold is the oldest extant form of currency. Unlike cattle, shells, salt and other ancient currency, gold can be said to have a hard encoding economic policy: the limited supply of gold extraction, a small part of the supply of gold a year only, effectively capped its inflation.

Historically, the inflation has been fluctuated between 3% to 2%, while the global gold supply to meet the demand of the Olympic swimming pool, so the relative scarcity of gold. The history and the durability of scarcity, it is long, it becomes one of the main reasons for the world’s reserve assets, the expansion of its market value to 7 trillion dollars.

Bitcoin inflation rate of about 3.8%, 6 to 2020 years, a third block inflation rate will fall to 1.8%, half. This will become the first to make bitcoin harder than gold currency in the world, but also to improve all the shortcomings of gold, is mainly the portability, divisibility and verifiability.

Bitcoin cruel calculation of deflation mode, with its advantages compared with other gold, will begin to let it become large institutions and central banks interested in assets. With deflation curve bitcoin halved in the years after 2020 became more radical, it will inevitably begin to evolve into a large institutions and the central bank for the reserve assets of all quality assets.

A specific event, such as a listed company news conference provided a whoop and a holler, give speculators a speculative date, usually will push up prices before the incident. After the event, even if the event is positive, the price will fall usually, because speculators are not expected short-term price catalyst.

Since the encryption of money market efficiency is low, the effect on the price of bitcoin currency and encryption is more obvious.

A good example of CME group launched bitcoin futures is this phenomenon. By the end of 2017 is affected by the introduction of regulatory bitcoin futures, will open the door for institutional investors, and will be pushed to the peak of hitherto unknown bitcoin. This is one of the main catalyst for bitcoin at the end of the year rose to nearly $20 thousand.

However, as we now know, 12 Nov 17 CME launched bitcoin futures marked the exact 2017 year peak bitcoin bubble.

As twice recently bitcoin halved the data clearly show that in 12 months before bitcoin halved in the same “buy the rumor, sell the news” mode can also be observed. 11 2011, a year ago, which is the first half, bitcoin launched a wave of rebound, after prices rose 300%, at the end of the day in half.

In July 2015, it was a year ago, the second half, bitcoin also began a round of rebound in prices rose 178% after the end of the half. Whether you love it or not, this is the market operation mode. The speculators will be speculation before an important date, bitcoin third half so.

At present, the miners each block of income for 12.5 bitcoin bitcoin, about 1800 a day. Although some miners hold some mined coins, but most miners would immediately sell these coins to the market price to pay electricity and lock in profits.

In May 2020 halved after the miners every day now can only earn 900 coins, greatly reducing the bitcoin on the supply of the market. When the reduction of supply to meet the demand in half after unchanged, prices will inevitably rise, to find a balance. The market efficiency is low, coupled with reduced supply shocks, resulting in bitcoin has two largest parabolic trend.

In 2012 after the bitcoin market halved, with two months to start to feel inflation in half, bitcoin began a round of parabolic motion, the price from $12 up to $142. Interestingly, after half 2016 year, the market earlier felt the fall in inflation, this time bitcoin began to rebound, only a month after the price in half, from 582 rose to $2 million.

The distance between third bitcoin halved in less than 18 months time, time to catch the fatal application of bitcoin. Through the algorithm execution of monetary policy. This kind of monetary policy subversive forces will begin in the price in 2019.

Bitcoin is hit the residual blood, also called aunt money

Bitcoin is hit the residual blood, also called aunt money

This is the first report in 2019 to write on the block chain, digital currency of the article, I three group data tell you, after the digital currency bitcoin is led by the residual blood in 2018, 2019 will be a what state, there is also a graphic called aunt currency will make newcomers feel wonderful.

The first to talk about, why I said bitcoin is playing the residual blood. Please see below the historical high price of 10 yuan. This is a 10 currency bitcoin LED (ranked ninth last year students can be ignored, bitcoin’s grandson, have not experienced the bull market bear market), reached its peak in December 2017 -2018 year in January, and was crippled bear market in 2018. At 10:40 in the morning of January 1, 2019 price comparison, have a drop of more than 81%, said bitcoin canxie 10 but it at least fall in decline. What is 2019? Bitcoin is a big BOSS, difficult to play, or 81% is obviously high defense. Bitcoin is still exciting enough, the probability of falling. But overall has dropped to the limited, at the time of occurrence of low, mostly in 2018 December, and even a few coins in December 15th or December 16th, this can be seen, at present stage, the lowest market allowed is clear, if the day market exceeded the market psychological bottom line, touch to start sharpening. Put some ideas to eat sugar bomb, immediately ran away, with a chestnut flavor from the ignition, but in the bear market, grab a week 10-20% revenue is duly completed, do not take the stock market with the ratio of the stock market, but also the arena, the coin circle bigger arena box operation less. This anticipation, you keep waiting for the bullet, critical moment, maybe when you want to give up the chips that moment, that is the bottom rebound, do not put in the coin ring mixed chips lost.

Then about ten hot search of coins, there was a wonderful name. See Fourth “aunt”, is not that wonderful, outsiders see all feel wonderful, the Internet was just started the Alibaba’s name also makes people feel a bit wonderful, but the aunt of the platform structure is attractive local people, this is not a new currency, is the “old Bi”, can survive is through the baptism of the market relatively useful currency. If you want to join, carefully look at the white paper and the application of these coins. The top 10 hot search not bitcoin, strange. From the top 10 hot search, can also see that the actual application of block chain technology, wave field I did not carefully studied, but EOS grapefruit and ETH Ethernet square, in the application of DAPP is the absolute leader, in a variety of application platform to develop their occupied DAPP major.

Talk about the final, ten large market capitalization, we are familiar with the taste out. Bitcoin leading big brother, Gerbaud, square, the grapefruit platform Ethernet block chain technology in currency list. Here it can be seen that the market turmoil, yet a clear direction. A walk is block chain development of DAPP grapefruit currency recognized by the market. The two is the big bit of cash capital coerced in them. We are not hate big capital, digital currency is to the center of the capital, can make wind up the rain will lose to the center of taste, that is subjective control the risk, but the risk is also big opportunity, the explosion burst down inflation is inevitable, speculators like this. The three is the big brother bitcoin is always the big brother. I no matter what kind of way to go, even after the old big brother, big brother is still. The first position is unchanged. The bitcoin is to shake the foundation of the whole digital currency, can not understand it, you understand bitcoin digital currency market is the queen of England, the emperor of Japan can. The four is to complement the “big brother bitcoin, Wright currency bitcoin not previously divergent, most likely is the Wright currency, after all, is a lot of Bob bifurcation and the chiefs struggle out of the results, but the genuine copycat Wright currency bitcoin’s status will not change. Look at the market float, Wright currency can see bitcoin trend.

The new year opened the first bitcoin, short-term market analysis has left radical operation, also has long term side chips keep advice, said some relevant currency gossip things. If available to you, is my most happy thing. Fingertips, to encourage, spread the common block chain, the value of bitcoins, let our faith no longer alone in the bear market, let us exchange jumped out of the bull market to spark. The coin ring inside and outside, you can read my article, all is the transmission of the blockchain, we are glad to participate in the future of the popular front.

How many people have started in bitcoin blockchain? Who is the richest man in bitcoin?

From 1 August 3 in the first 2009 years of bitcoin birth date (with the first block, is also the birth of the first 50 blocks, the birth of a bitcoin), there are 3 days, bitcoin has been 10 years.

Now, how many people hold bitcoin bitcoin, who is the richest man? The total amount of 2100 million pieces of bitcoin, have dug up how much? Today, we have to talk about these interesting topics.

How many people have bitcoin?

We introduced before the blockchain accounting transparency, anyone can query, therefore, we can query the number of blocks through the chain bitcoin wallet address. A web site (http://t.cn/R4UzafP) of all bitcoin address do statistics, there are currently 22573341 (more than 22 million 570 thousand) address with bitcoin.

Then, to the problem, How much cash address is equivalent to how many coins?

Not, bitcoin address number is not equal to the number of bitcoin holders, There are two reasons:

1, A person can have a lot of bitcoin address, but bitcoin address is anonymous, so can not through the address to determine the number of holding money number. You can understand this, if a bank card is not real name system, a person can handle any bank card, bank card number is not through the bank to determine how many people hold bank card. 2, many users of bitcoin trading center platform, can not be reflected by the block on the chain. Bitcoin trading platform for hundreds of thousands of users, they are in the bitcoin trading platform in a few dozens. A trading platform through the address management, hundreds of thousands of users of bitcoin, bitcoin address number number is far less than the actual have bitcoin.

Therefore, it is very difficult to estimate accurately the number of bitcoin users. A number of media and institutions have conducted investigation, and no clear conclusion, However, the survey results show that bitcoin user number does not exceed 20 million. If you use 7 billion as the total population of the earth, bitcoin users accounted for 0.286% of the population of the planet, that is to say, As long as you hold bitcoin, leading 99.7% people.

Who is the richest man in bitcoin?

Rumors bitcoin founder Nakamoto has about 1000000 bitcoins, but this is the result of speculation.

Inferencebasis, from January 3, 2009 to January 25, 2010 (from the 0# block to block 36288#), these blocks out of coins has been moved, and according to block a characteristic information (ExtraNonce) concluded that most blocks are the same miners dug, the miners probability is nakamoto.

Of course, it is inferred that because the anonymity of bitcoin address, it is difficult to associate the address and the people. So, Who is the richest man in bitcoin is also no clear answer to the question.

However, the block on the chain data, we can find out which address the richest, and the address of the bitcoin distribution is what.

At present, the largest number of bitcoin address is: 3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r, the current balance is. 138660.868 BTC At present, according to the price of bitcoin, The equivalent of more than 3 billion 600 million rmb.

“Most of the first 10 bitcoin address information

We can see a table:

The bitcoin address number and increasing number of data

The above data analysis can be drawn:

1, the current flow of bitcoin, bitcoin is the number has been dug out, more than 1745 million, Bitcoin accounted for more than 83% of the total; 2, More than 100 thousand bitcoin super rich address only 5, more than 10 thousand bitcoin address is not more than 100 The so-called “Chinese; bitcoin man” Li Xiaolai, was claimed to have 6 digit coins, the first number is 1, if all the coins are in the same address, can be ranked in the top five; 3, the first 100 address about current bitcoin total circulation 15.6%; 4, 95.8% of the total circulation of the top 3.11% of the addresses of all; nearly 97% of the number of addresses held no more than 5% in circulation, “gap” (of course, this is significantly affected by the exchange of the centralized effect); 5, Holding more than 1BTC address can be ranked in the top 3.11%, the number of addresses can exceed 96%; 6, 70% address, cash amount of not more than 0.01BTC;

Summary

Because of the anonymity of bitcoin, a user can have multiple bitcoin address and many users stored in the bitcoin trading platform, therefore, it is very difficult to estimate accurately the number of users currently holds bitcoin, bitcoin and who is the richest man.

According to the survey results of a number of media and institutions, the current bitcoin users less than 20 million, as long as Coins over 99.7% of the world; according to hold the address data inference, as long as can firmly hold 1BTC, more than 96% Chibidaigou, have Chibidaigou 0.01BTC more than 70%. Bitcoin you hold now, you can hold what position? To flaunt it fast message area.

2019: the bitcoin system and supervision of the year

More than a year ago, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched the world’s first bitcoin futures contracts, this is the first ever to enter the traditional market bitcoin investment products. Just before bitcoin hit an all-time high of $20 thousand, the two futures began trading. Derivatives transactions reflect the 2017 market frenzy, Cboe futures traded more than 800 contracts in the first two hours after the launch of the (then about $12 million).

With the establishment of the market optimistic expectations, bitcoin debut in Wall Street, to create an illusion. This seemingly unstoppable assets throughout 2017 easily surpassed a record high, will usher in the largest torrent of capital.

Now, bitcoin has been down from a record high of about 80%. It is introduced the mainstream market mechanism, apparently did not take us to a new paradigm, and even some people in society think, futures have had the opposite effect. 2018 is not institutionalized some bitcoin investors hope the year. Perhaps the best example is the trial and the industry failed to get the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved ETF.

Nevertheless, there are still some deadline has not yet completed and the tentative launch date of 2019 may be the year the actual progress in the field of bitcoin investment institutions. Including two kinds of futures products associated with these terms, as well as the long-awaited VanEck bitcoin ETF.

The New York stock exchange parent company Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) was first announced in August Bakkt listing plan. The company’s chief executive officer Kelly Love Le (Kelly Loefller) the platform can be described as “institutions, businesses and consumers in the digital asset telescopic entrance”, the platform is positioned as the encrypted payment solutions, there is an additional benefit: physical delivery futures contract.

With the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (Cboe) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) of different currently available futures products, Bakkt’s contract will bitcoin real settlement. The platform was originally planned to launch in November 2018, has been postponed to January 24, 2019 test run.

There are few institutions investment products like VanEck and SolidX bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that are the industry attention. The SEC has been delayed two times on VanEck SolidX ETF’s decision, but by February 27, 2018, it will have to make a decision, although in reality, may make a decision earlier than this.

In addition to the ETF, the SEC must also make a final decision on the other 9 ETF. The ETF is rejected at the level of staffing, has been requested to review committee.

The NASDAQ (Nasdaq) at the launch of their bitcoin futures outlook in 2018 years, as we enter the 2019 year, the exchange hopes to fulfill his promise. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange did not disclose a lot about futures operation details, also did not provide much information to launch date. We know that their tentative launch date is expected to be 2019 in the first quarter of this year, the NASDAQ has partnered with VanEck to VanEck MVIS bitcoin price index as the source.

Why would a sudden surge in the price of bitcoin? It can return to its original value level?

Why would a sudden surge in the price of bitcoin? It can return to its original value level?

Bitcoin after a period of decline, which seemed to usher in its trough, but recently bitcoin value rose suddenly makes many investors seem to see the value of bitcoin up hope, there is speculation it may rise the value process of a new round of the bitcoin value rose along with the changes in the stock market.

As a kind of virtual currency, to some extent, it is more like a fluctuation in the value of goods, while the stock also has such features, this phenomenon is undoubtedly a good omen for the investment currency of the people, after the continued depreciation of a longer period of time, investors have lost the patient in this market, but many speculators are still waiting for the value of the currency rose appears, there is no doubt that the rise so that they see new possibilities.

As for why bitcoin continues to decline after the return value rose, an important reason is the participation of the United States, an act of Congress that played a role in fueling the bill to bitcoin as a stock or commodity to such holders can normally use bitcoin transactions. Because the stock transaction does not need to pay additional taxes, so if this bill is implemented, then bitcoin transactions will be more convenient, this is undoubtedly in a certain extent, expanded its scope of circulation.

For a suitable for trading currency circulation more times it is more wide, money is a medium of exchange was used, if bitcoin transactions like stocks normalization, then its value will also increase, but bitcoin as a more universal currency this statement for settlement general trading is difficult to put into practice, with the New York Stock Exchange on new projects involving bitcoin skeptical, this makes bitcoin further from general circulation more difficult.

On the side of a doubt promote influence, although bitcoin did not rise to its peak value but there is still no small gain, cause it to rise from the point of view, a sudden surge in the bitcoin may not last long, after all, is because of some external factors that caused changes in it the value of the return.

2019 chiefs said | public chain is in the downstream channel of the Starving people fill the land. new year, but will not imagine what appeared

文 | 齐明,郝方舟

编辑 | 郝方舟

编者按:新一年的钟声刚刚敲响,属于 2019 的喧嚣、疯狂、奇迹、感动正在开启。

2018,作为区块链行业媒体,Odaily星球日报既陪伴了区块链行业疯狂的从零到一,也见证了非理性繁荣的泡沫破裂。有人感叹,这短暂却精彩的时代片段,再也无法被复制了。因此,我们希望记录下那些行业亲历者、开拓者的真实声音,为行业的探索者、守望者指引前路。

《2019 大佬说》是 Odaily星球日报推出的区块链访谈栏目,我们采访了 50 余位区块链行业引领者,将访谈精华整理沉淀为系列文章。

参考互联网发展史,我们就知道在早期的底层操作系统赛道占位意味着什么。同样,自区块链技术进入成长期,作为底层基础设施的公链成为了竞争激烈的领域。

2018 年是第一代公链诞生十周年,也被很多人称为“公链元年”。一批要带领区块链进入“3.0 时代”的公链,视 TPS 为“区块链 2.0”最大的痛点。分片、Plasma、Casper 以及各种共识机制,排列组合出不同的扩容方案,试图求出突破“不可能三角”的最优解。也有团队尝试从业务场景的真实需求反推技术的进化方向,调整底层网络架构(比如搭载 Layer 2)。更有人质疑现在的公链是否已走上错误的道路,认为区块链本身并非为通用计算设计,没必要万事都对标互联网。

无论剑指何方,今年我们的确见证了不少公链(在资本的加持下)上线测试网、主网,运营开发者与用户社区,并大力构建生态。不过,在公链数量多于开发者,以及数字货币踏入“长熊”的窘境下,造血能力弱的公链进行了一轮大洗牌。

所幸,市场上依然不乏现金流和技术能力过硬的少数公链团队,将熊市视为超车的机会,为下一波机会来临蛰伏准备。

近日,Odaily星球日报再次邀请到星云链(Nebulas)创始人徐义吉、本体(Ontology)创始人李俊、Zilliqa CEO 董心书、QuarkChain 创始人周期、Nervos 联合创始人吕国宁、aelf 创始人马昊伯、火币区块链研究院院长(原火币公链事业部总经理)袁煜明,用五问五答盘点公链过去这一年、展望未来的风貌。以下为整理编辑后的问答精华,enjoy~

2019大佬说 | 公链正处于哀鸿遍野的下行通道中,但新的一年会有想象不到的东西出现

Q1. 2018 年,“公链界”让您印象最深的一件事是什么?这件事对人们认知区块链产生了哪些影响?

李俊:从去年年底到今年年底,公链项目从万马奔腾到头部显现,今年主网真正上线而且运营不错的公链很少。

本来我以为公链项目万马奔腾的情况会延续两到三年,但因为熊市来得很突然,所以公链的淘汰进度加快了。不过,目前还只是公链这场马拉松的开头。

董心书:2018 年是公链得到广泛关注的一年,不过公链不是整个区块链行业的全部,公链在区块链中的角色会从目前的焦点演变为后面的促进整个行业发展的作用。

周期:新的共识层出不穷,以及如何改造传统共识适用到区块链上。

吕国宁:今年对“公链届”影响最大最深远的是市场环境。2017 年区块链概念和市场火爆,吸引到相当一大批的来自传统 IT 领域和互联网领域的开发者的关注。区块链技术活动、话题、培训火爆。但从 2018 年下半年开始,我们明显观察到技术热度不断下降,甚至近期非常重要的技术进展,都不再像之前那样被广泛关注。

区块链技术发展跟市场环境直接相关,是这个行业的特点。我们认为行业的高速发展,离不开繁荣的开发者社区,以及大量的潜在开发者愿意转到区块链技术领域。由于市场因素,让很多在区块链初创团队选择退出,让之前关注并寻找机会参与进来的团队打消念头,这些都是此刻普遍的现状。

马昊伯:自 2013、2014 年后,VC 在 2017、2018 年重新关注区块链,一些有影响力的人也开始在关注区块链。

袁煜明:以 EOS 为代表的公链,TPS 突破千位量级后,出现了数据量的暴增,然而大量的数据来自于简单的游戏,并未出现预想中的大面积实用应用落地。

这个事件引发了我对公链真正使用价值的思考。可以做一个近似的假设:以往我们用 Visa 的中心化服务器去记录每一笔交易,为了实现“去中心化”,参考 EOS 的模式我们需要至少 21 个同等服务器去做同一件事情,那么花费的成本也可近似类比成以前的 21 倍,这样对所记录的数据价值要求就会非常高,大量的简单游戏过程数据是没有这样的价值的,等于我们付出了高价值却得到低价值的结果,这样的性价比是非常不合理的。

简而言之,区块链技术的使用对记录数据价值也应该是分层的,不同的层级对应的数据价值不同。大家目前过于关注技术实现或者突破,却忽略了不同定位的区块链对不同价值数据的适用场景分类,如公链上记录的数据价值应该是最高的,有最高级的去中心化需求和价值;联盟链上的次之,更多是联盟间需要公证的数据;私链上基本上可以等同于传统的中心化服务器,以信用做背书,技术上融入区块链技术即可。

Q2. 对比互联网发展史,您觉得公链在区块链世界扮演的角色是什么?现在处于什么样的阶段?

徐义吉:区块链的 2018 和比特币价格一样,经历了一个春夏秋冬,春夏很短,秋冬很长。整个行业也从狂热到冷静,从膨胀到收缩。

李俊:公链在区块链世界中扮演的是中流砥柱的角色。联盟链可以满足局部范围、局部阶段的需求,但最终还是会过渡到公链。

董心书:历史不会重复,但是会惊人地相似。公链是区块链世界的基础设施,不过目前还处于非常早期的阶段。

周期:公链是个底层架构,类似于互联网的 TCP/IP 协议。目前区块链处于早期,公链的迭代速度很快。区块链的发展之所以这么快,是因为两点:区块链和价值直接产生关系;大家都认为区块链行业会产生头部效应。

吕国宁:区块链和互联网有边界,但也互现打通,互为补充和竞争关系。

回到5年前,甚至更早,区块链和其生态都不存在。比特币流行后,我们开始探索点对点电子现金系统和分布式账本的潜力。以太坊流行后,我们开始思考基于智能合约的去中心化应用能给我们带来一个怎样的繁荣生态。

从比特币、以太坊,到 EOS,我们看到的是人们在互联网之外,开拓出了一个新的、之前不存在的疆域,就像发现了新大陆。这个疆域的边界在什么地方还需要继续探索。这个疆域能建立的商业生态还在早期但潜力巨大。所以区块链新领域和互联网一定是互相打通,互为补充和竞争的关系。在这个新领域,会诞生新的商业模式、新的产品、新的价值,去跟互联网竞争,同时也会刺激互联网环境加速进化。

马昊伯:公链是区块链的基础设施,整个行业目前还处于非常早期的阶段,行业也还没有那么大的需求。就像互联网中的电子商务还没出来时,对云计算的需求并没有那么强烈。

目前的区块链特别像 2000 年的互联网,那个时候大家对互联网的认知就是 QQ、门户网站、聊天室。我们再来看现在的区块链,也就是交易所、ICO、加密猫及博彩类应用等。

袁煜明:公链将是 Web 3.0 的基础设施。Web1.0 提供了用户读取的需求,任何东西都可以通过主动去查询来获得;Web2.0 提供了用户互动的需求,用户还能有互动和反馈,但所有的数据都是通过寡头企业的服务器存储记录,用户也会有隐私被人监控的感觉;Web3.0 将提供一个更加扁平的互动模式,所有数据交换将基于分布式网络,以加密的形式分布式存储在网络中,而不是掌握在寡头企业,个体隐私将得到充分的保障。

当然,那时公链的定义可能较当前的定义会有很大的不同,当前以 BTC 支付类型为 1.0 和以 ETH 智能合约为 2.0 定义状态的公链只是这个生态的 0.1 阶段,非常初期的技术迈步,后面的路还很长,发展空间很大。

Q3. 可否在扩容、吸引开发者、社区运营、生态布局、安全、现金流(或者您认为对一条公链最重要的点)之中排下前三名?

李俊:技术(扩容是技术的一部分)决定能走多远,以及如何更好为开发者服务。现金流方面,不管是社区还是技术的发展,都需要有好的经济模型支持,比如对节点、开发者的激励。这个现金流不仅仅只是核心团队的现金流,而要让整个生态都长久、健康、自循环地运作起来。

董心书:这几点都非常重要。其中,安全、扩容、吸引开发者、社区运营这几点在一开始就要做到最好。现金流、生态布局可以稍缓。

周期:安全、社区参与程度、可扩展性。社区参与程度,是去中心化比较明确的体现。对于区块链来说,就是需要很多人去参与、维护这个网络并从中获益。有点类似于电视台与网红,现在网红即便不上电视台也可以火,也可以吸引流量,最后慢慢就形成网红经济。

关于可扩展性,会牵扯到另一个问题,目前为什么有这么多链的存在呢?其实,每个公链是多维空间上面的一个点,这个维度可以是共识、账本、智能合约,将这些维度进行不同的排列组合,就会出现很多公链。比如以太坊就是在智能合约维度、POW 维度进行组合。而我们想做一条线,通过灵活性将不同的点加进来,这条线就是公链所实现的不同维度的功能。灵活性和可拓展性是未来区块链非常重要的因素。

吕国宁:安全、核心团队/基金会、开发者/用户社区。

安全永远是第一,不能做任何妥协。核心开发团队和基金会在开发早期推动和技术决策,财务计划起的作用也很大。长期发展则要看开发者社区和用户社区。

马昊伯:第一是公链的易用性,也就是对 C 端用户足够友好,对 B 端开发者足够简单。这两点是公链非常核心的事情。

第二是当用户增加后,公链能否提供稳定高效的运行环境。开发者在选择生态时,不能只看哪个生态的用户多,比如比特币的用户多,但是我之前做比特币支付的效果并不好。我希望有产业的开发者进来开发 DAPP,比如马云做区块链的淘宝,肯定比区块链里的人做强很多,因为马云懂卖货的逻辑,区块链里的人不一定懂这个逻辑。

袁煜明:公链自身的定位,价值数据,将是第一位。剩下几个都属于同一个概念,开发者足够也意味着生态布局和安全足够。

Q4. 公链项目现在遇到最大的瓶颈是什么?

李俊:公链目前都在做应用,但是实际落地的突破还不明显。公链发展到后面不仅仅是技术问题,还有业务场景、商业机制的设计以及在不同行业的拓展。这些难度都很大,挑战的东西很多,需要在不同的行业设计新的行业规则、新的商业流程,才能把区块链技术应用进去。

董心书:最大瓶颈是公链如何深入到现有的业务中,如何平衡各方利益,这是非技术层面的东西,我认为这是最大的挑战,也是我们最大的机会。

从长远来看,区块链可以提高效率,降低成本,但是目前阶段会有比较高的初始成本,这个成本需要多家一起分担,这个会比较难。

周期:如何平衡不可能三角问题,让更多社群认可。

吕国宁:大家公认的公链最大瓶颈是性能,但我认为是下一代的方案开发进度和市场预期的不协调。

2018 年我们看到 EOS 相对以太坊,将交易性能提升了两个数量级,引领了区块链游戏类应用的爆发。但是两个数量级的性能提升,还不足以支撑我们希望的繁荣的、有各类型 DAPP 的加密经济生态。

目前在开发中的公链项目,目标都是确保更安全和更高性能去支撑更多的应用和用户,各家采用的技术方向都不一样,能否实现这个目标需要时间和交付市场去验证。

马昊伯:第一是用户入门门槛太高,既需要向公链支付费用,又不像微信,大家一看就会用。区块链需要把一些类似 CPU 的概念隐藏在后台,比如如果是应用服务商直接向公链支付费用,那将会有效防止 DDoS 行为,而且对用户来说也更友好。

第二是性能差,而且应用之间相互干扰。比如以太坊的 TPS 低,彼此资源不隔离。当时以太猫游戏一度导致以太坊拥堵,也影响了以太坊上的其它应用。

袁煜明:目前公链项目的瓶颈在于区块链全生态建设和配合上,比如ETH是个安全性很高的公链,它需要可扩展性强的 Layer 2 来配合,需要分布式存储来存储,这需要一个全生态技术覆盖,区块链公链世界不一定要很多条公链,但需要大家都在一个安全的生态下去扩展硬需求,效果远远大于 fork 一条所谓新公链,这些都是伪改进。

Q5. 2019 年公链和区块链世界可能会有哪些变化和趋势?

徐义吉:2018 的公链是 exclusive 封闭排他的,2019 年的公链应该是 inclusive 普惠共赢的。因为我认为没有一条公链能够独自成功,作为区块链底层基础设施,还有太多地方值得大家相互探讨、学习和提升。应该更多的关注区块链技术本身,即一个原生的基于分布式数据确权带来的交互和影响。

展望下区块链 2019,从星云链来看,区块链本质没有变化,即由分布式技术带来的“自治数据元网络”对未来生活的潜在影响和改变。寄托着由技术带给人们未来美好生活的期望,这种期望需要所有区块链从业者一起去努力,去突破!

李俊:2019 年区块链在技术、商业、投资等各方面都会更务实,区块链在实体方面会有局部落地。至少前十名的公链会逐渐显现。

董心书:技术方面会成熟,会有很多(公链)上主网,会看到一些有趣的应用。不排除会出现新的惊喜。

周期:明年会有更多的落地,更多的技术会得到验证,这些都是非常值得期待的。当然也会有想象不到的新东西出现,毕竟区块链的发展过程起伏比较大,过山车都不足以形容这个过程,对我而言,更像是蹦极。

吕国宁:整个行业受市场因素影响,此刻处于低谷和下行通道中,2019年上半年还看不到好转的迹象。这对于优秀团队来说是一个考验。坚持到下一风口,才能抓住行业发展的机会和红利。

但我们还看到,在 2017 年至 2018 年这一波浪潮中,一批来自学术领域,尤其是密码学领域头部的项目团队获得了空前的关注和发展契机,很多前沿技术和项目获得资本和机构的支持,有足够的资源推动技术研究和发展,包括更好的密码学、签名算法、隐私算法。区块链底层技术的发展将会在 2019 年看到更多可能性。

马昊伯:2019 年,区块链项目会有一轮洗牌;熊市会淘汰掉一批公司;会有一些 DAPP 出现。

对于公链来说,2019 年不会像 2018 年那样有很多新的公链项目,会更偏平静一些。此外,我觉得目前的区块链,需要像类似于拼多多这样的搅局者来打破。

袁煜明:2019 年,预计分片技术能得到落地测试,跨链技术也能,新的隐私保护技术也会有新血液。我比较期望看到的是分布式存储的落地测试,不是说协议,是运作的比较好的共识机制、经济机制。

应用层面的趋势和变化会更大,采用区块链技术在联盟链上的应用将推动更多行业实现机构精简和可信度提高,大家对区块链的理解和应用需求会更加细分,合规建设会进一步完善,相关投资衍生品也会出现,手机应用端将成为区块链应用落地使用的主要入口,如基于区块链技术的支付宝,IoT 和游戏行业也将是最先与区块链技术结合的比较好的行业。

2019大佬说 | 公链正处于哀鸿遍野的下行通道中,但新的一年会有想象不到的东西出现

一项技术从极客走向大众的过程,既像一次过山车,也是一场马拉松。

2018 年,加密经济和舆论都刺激并助推资本再次涌入区块链行业。乱象的背后也有技术的“真·突破”。区块链的泡沫挤压和公链的洗牌,尚未结束。2019 年,头部公链会慢慢显现,应用层也将迎来新的发展。

(Odaily星球日报作者潘俊对此文亦有贡献。)

相关专题

链与制作人,寻找下一条“超级公链”

附《2018区块链领域走心盘点》

2019大佬说 | 公链正处于哀鸿遍野的下行通道中,但新的一年会有想象不到的东西出现

EOS super node is cut? POSSUM or forward | 2019 big brother said”

The New Year bell did not ring, which belongs to the 2019 hustle, madness, miracle, moved is not yet open.

2018, as a block of media industry chain, Odaily is accompanied by a daily planet block chain industry crazy from zero to one, also witnessed the irrational prosperity of the bubble burst. People sigh, this short but wonderful time fragments can’t be copied.

Therefore, we hope that the real sound record those industry participants, a pioneer in the industry to explore, watch the way.

“2019” is the daily planet Odaily chiefs launched the blockchain interview column, we interviewed more than 50 block chain industry leader, will arrange interviews essence precipitation for a series of articles from today will be released.

Grapefruit, is to enter the China block chain ring EOS more than a year ago, was “in” after the call. Block chain stage this year, EOS super node campaign is the focus of most attention.

People exclaim the explosive effect on EOS set up 21 super node campaign initiated in the Chinese, “everyone can campaign when the node”, “with EOS, let our life experience for the first time a heavy right hand feeling”, for a time, speculators, technology explorer, BM followers, the sea quantity and information for the crowd possessed, makes the EOS price rose from about $4 in just one month to $20.

However, after the grand hustle, now EOS in the bear market and ecological problems in the shadow of struggling. So stick to EOS participants and observers of their situation?

The wonderful tidbits

  1. The Daily Planet: Odaily you EOS to earn money?

    CEN Zi: I got a copy to the end of history. But for me the money this thing is not particularly important, because I have experienced a bull and bear. I hope to be able to go further in their own direction, which is DPoS in this field.

    Tea cat: No, because the more you believe more quilt, we have no cash.

  2. The daily planet Odaily: do you think the biggest competitor is EOS?

    CEN Zi: and his time.

    Tea cat: wave field.

  3. Odaily Daily Planet: you will continue to campaign for the EOS super node?

    Tea cat: No. This is not the entrepreneur to do, entrepreneurs should focus on doing better on DApp.

    Zi Cen: we have all in, I will always be a part of this ecosystem.

  4. Odaily Daily Planet: the main line in the few days do?

    CEN Zi: drugs with no difference, for a few days can not sleep ah, very nervous, the whole situation is changing.

    Tea cat: stop people with ulterior motives for bifurcation EOS then attempt to contact other nodes, the successful launch of a network.

  5. The daily planet Odaily: do you think EOS can last up to?

    Tea cat: 1000

The founder of IMEOS.ONE EOS: “tea cat is the scarcity of high-quality DApp, rather than node”

“When we go to like a swarm of bees to run, also have a lot of friends asked me to take part in the election.

From our observation, the ecological super node campaign is mainly divided into two categories, one is a big game player, two entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs need to tell stories about financing, so I want to go for a super node. A EOS “bit,” this story is big enough. For the big game player who occupied a pit, to strive to ecological discourse.

As an entrepreneur, to pay so much energy to run for the super node, I don’t think it’s worth.

Is a super node it is not easy to earn money, of course, the super node must be profitable, but compared to the amount of funds to choose the super node, the profit is really a small profit, may be less than 5% years, is only small profits.

In the short term is difficult to see the money effect of super node, may be a better future direction, but not suitable for entrepreneurs to cut.

This is a big game player is two games, you must have its own big ticket bunker, you can run. No amount of EOS accumulation in early (essentially a large amount of money) the ordinary entrepreneurs, is unlikely to be chosen.

You will find that now is not the super node was called the dial the loudest, really big money, muffled on. Sounds great for the entrepreneurs, but mostly in the 30 row No. ~40. The super node may have long been big game player cut Hu, because the big game player is large enough amount of money, and they provide services are good enough.

On the other hand, the super node presence gradually is not so strong, users now have no concern for nodes is who. In the future, the super node provides hardware and services, DApp will enhance the participation and voice in ecology.

As an entrepreneur, should think about how to do better DApp. Now, the super node is not scarce, scarce is good quality DApp, DApp to build a good ecological, DApp entrepreneurs cannot earn less than the super node.”

EOS Asia founder Guo Dafeng: “before the optimization of each month are at a loss, but the node’s role should not be underestimated”

“Do we really want to help the node is EOS, put it into the mainstream

Any DApp to EOS interaction must go node service, every day, through our interactions with EOS backbone node request 400 million times.

Now the market is concerned, the money (super node profit) may not be what. In our team for example, earnings are basically used in the server, before this week, we are in good condition, recently made optimization to achieve breakeven. Whether it is hiring or development, cost is very high, so it must be in the burn and loss of state before, there may be some surplus to offset a point, but if the surplus from multi perspective, a super node is not a good way.

At the same time, compared with our own Internet business, EOS business is relatively small, a lot of nodes, we are in the development of some DApp, block chain browser, but want these applications to the stable operation of the node role should not be underestimated, nodes need to provide operational dimension for nursing service chain.

In 2019, EOS will be a referendum on several key issues such as the problem of chain governance and CPU is important, as a node, in fact we are participants in an ecological, we hope that this ecosystem will be better.”

HelloEOS founder Cen Zi: “I don’t want to go up, the bear market is really dead”

“Exaggerated, super node that has exaggerated array campaign? Bitfinex, ZB, OK, fire currency and other global top ten mainstream exchange, have joined the ranks of the super node election.

The exchange can be said to be the top of the food chain, they almost never to any project ‘too low’, never run for a single project node. They exchange Qiazhao whole circle of users, money flow, funds to enter the industry chain to block inside, must first go through the exchange. Exchange to participate in the campaign EOS super node, enough to reflect the influence of EOS.

So I said EOS super node is a marketing campaign, the most cattle pilot block chain history, over the years, no one can block chain projects like EOS, a big boom.

Everyone crowded broken head in, not only for the benefit, you know, behind the EOS heat is a lot of traffic and resources, in fact we all want, is my light in this circle inside the Lulu face, have been very satisfied.

Super node election also brought an important significance. It appears that the real DPoS mechanism into the public view, before EOS, DPoS had relatively small minority, even in BTS, YOYOW and other projects in the test, but before the plate is relatively small, in resource is relatively small, the situation is not so perplexing now EOS.

EOS is a larger scale, larger scope, verify the validity of DPoS. We later found some prior to the existence of objection to the DPoS mechanism also accepted the concept of DPoS, participated in the super node campaign.

EOS did not pay additional costs for these operations, but the DPoS is gradually accepted, so I think this is a best marketing pilot.”

Bitcoin is going down, because now more and more digital currency

Bitcoin is going down, because now more and more digital currency

For bitcoin, I believe we are not unfamiliar, because bitcoin price is very expensive, so many people are concerned about bitcoin, if not to buy bitcoin, is also concerned about the price, what kind of a trend? Because now in for bitcoin’s words, there are two views of the crowd, a person is to see the circle of the bitcoin price is not another crowd at the bitcoin price.

First, here, is my stand, I was not optimistic about the future of bitcoin prices, even if many people say that bitcoin’s future will be how, but as a legitimate citizen, also, even if the future of bitcoin really will rise the price of $400 thousand, also will not regret, although as Internet practitioners, many people say that I am thinking more conservative, more conservative, but this is not just a conservative or old problem, why not see bitcoin? Because bitcoin is an extension of the Internet technology, and we as Internet workers, in these years saw a lot of the Internet, has lead to some technology proud have gradually been replaced, so as bitcoin also is no exception, he just went out the technology part.

We can see, now digital currency on the market is more and more, the same is based on technology developed by more exercise, and even some upgrades than bitcoin technology based on the birth, then that block chain technology is not only a digital currency bitcoin. Now the price of bitcoin recently collapsed in a way, we will be able to see bitcoin is not so surprising, but the price of its performance is the only witness!

In fact, in the future, bitcoin prices will gradually return to rational, we can see so many on the market, their digital currency relative to the price of bitcoin is very cheap, if it is to see it from the angle of investment inside the circle of people believe future currency will digital currency the other choice gradually, and not to choose the expensive bitcoin, and now we are accustomed to see, more and more digital currency, to the last and who are willing to play this is also a problem, also need to consider an issue is the future of bitcoin even up to a very high price. So who is willing to spend their own money to pick up the disc? This is also a very serious problem! For the future of bitcoin, you have what kind of view? The comments below express your views, make complaints about it!