3.8 billion shares in the whole network! Bitcoin suddenly dived after breaking through 180000 yuan / piece. What’s going on?

In a daze, bitcoin has made history again. Bitcoin trading volume continued to rise after breaking through $25000 on the 26th. At 18:00 on the 27th, bitcoin broke through the $27000 barrier and reported to US $27642 (about RMB 180900), but then fell sharply, once losing $26400. What happened? Picture / toon shakes violently! Bitcoin fell sharply after breaking through two thousand yuan barrier in a row. According to several media reports, the highest trading price of bitcoin has been constantly refreshed since it broke the $20000 mark on December 16. On the 27th, bitcoin prices broke through two thousand yuan mark in a row in one day, reaching a maximum of 28387 US dollars, up more than 10% in the day. But then, it fell sharply, once losing $26400, down more than $2000 from the previous high. At present, the price of bitcoin has rebounded. By the time of publication, bitcoin has reached US $26583.2. Bitcoin has been in the eye-catching rise this year, and has become an asset absolutely benefiting from the epidemic. Bitcoin is now more than 584% higher than it was then, after hitting a new low of $4705 on March 13. On December 27, “bitcoin broke through 150000 yuan at the end of the year” once ranked the third place in Zhihu hot list, with a fever of 11.3 million yuan. Some netizens directly called out: “sudden wealth market is coming again, more exciting than the roller coaster”, and some netizens said: “bitcoin and Maotai shares are quite similar. The more you think it can’t rise, the more it rises.” On December 27, trading sentiment in the virtual money market remained “extremely greedy” for more than a month, according to the alternative.me sentiment survey. Data source: alternative.me. However, in this round of soaring, many virtual currency communities in China are still cold. “Unexpectedly, the bull market is coming, and I’m out of the blue. The biggest sorrow of the coin people is that the rise of bitcoin has made headlines. All kinds of friends outside the circle asked me if I had made a lot of money by playing bitcoin, and I was cleared when I was over 10000. Now bitcoin is really not affordable for ordinary people. It’s a game for institutions on the other side of the ocean. ” An investor told the China Securities Journal. Missing the bull market is not the worst. The air force that makes the contract is Aihong. According to bitcoin home.com, in the last 24 hours, 60994 people have burst into positions, with a total amount of 704 million US dollars (about 4.582 billion yuan) in all currencies of the network. Among them, the total amount of bitcoin contract was 585 million US dollars (about 3.814 billion yuan). The air force didn’t expect that bitcoin had hit new highs in recent days, but it didn’t mean to call back. “I really can’t understand the recent market. It’s too risky. Some friends who speculated in bitcoin futures didn’t listen and went bankrupt. ” One bitcoin investor said. Gu Yanxi, a practitioner in the blockchain and crypto digital asset industry, said that it is very easy to leverage bitcoin transactions at present. The proportion of leverage can be very large, and the risk may be greater. In such a market environment, we need to keep sober to avoid taking on big losses. Suzie, chief experience officer of virtual currency MXC exchange, also does not recommend that novices play with leveraged bitcoin futures contracts. “In the case of high leverage, the risk of contract explosion is great. If 10 times of leverage is used, 10% of the market fluctuation will burst, and 20 times of leverage will lead to 5% market fluctuation. The novice is not familiar with the operation of the contract, the grasp of the market, the position control and the stop loss strategy. The operation of such a high-risk transaction, the risk of exposure is great. ” Why is bitcoin soaring? “The rapid rise of bitcoin in recent years may be different from the speculation or speculation that people think of. Speculation and speculation do exist, but they are not the main reason.” William, chief researcher of okex research, told China news agency that the direct reason was high net worth and the admission of institutional investors. He pointed out that since the second half of this year, institutions such as American insurance giant MassMutual life insurance company and MicroStrategy, a business analysis company, have bought bitcoin, while online payment giant paypal and Singapore’s largest commercial bank DBS have announced that they will launch cryptocurrency payment services. More than $6.9 billion of bitcoin is currently held by listed companies, according to bitcoin treasuies. This has led to the prosperity of bitcoin market. Meng Xiaoni, CEO of bitcoin, said that the reason for the rapid appreciation of bitcoin in the near future is objectively that after the outbreak of the epidemic, in order to stimulate the economy, the global monetary policy has released liquidity on a large scale. This “opening the floodgate” environment has made the global market in the period of monetary easing. The substantial increase of capital liquidity and the simultaneous growth of risk aversion demand have produced such a result. “It’s not just bitcoin, it’s also a good year for the stock market.” Currency over issuance highlights the scarcity of bitcoin. “The essence of Maotai, house price and rising bitcoin is the same.” Liang Zhonghua, chief Macro Analyst of China Thailand securities, said in a research report released on the evening of December 20 that currency overspread will slow down, which will have a certain short-term impact on asset prices. But in the long run, the dilemma of over issuance is difficult to change. As we mentioned earlier, when paper money is no longer scarce, the belief in money is also facing unprecedented challenges. The market will spontaneously look for long-term survival and long-term scarce assets and find new “money”. Liang Zhonghua believes that the key point to maintain currency belief is “scarcity”. Shells were also used as money in primitive society, because people found that a shell also required a lot of labor time. Shells were scarce, which determined that these shells had intrinsic value. But if people go to the seaside and find that there are endless shells everywhere, shells will become worthless, and people will start to use other scarce commodities as money. He stressed in the research report that when there is a value corresponding to the back of the paper money, people are willing to hold the paper money. When the paper money is printed without restriction and the back value is greatly reduced, people will look for new commodities to realize the function of money. This is a very important reason for the rise of scarce assets as long as the currency is over issued. In this sense, buying gold, Maotai, core stocks, and core real estate is the same logic, a process of re searching for scarcity. The scarcity of bitcoin is the main feature that distinguishes bitcoin from paper money, tulip and shell currency. Unlike the latter three, which can be printed and produced indefinitely, bitcoin has a total of 21 million and cannot be increased. According to China, the number of bitcoins circulating in the market is far less than 21 million due to forgetting passwords and other factors. More professional investors are expected to enter the market, and the volatility of bitcoin’s currency value is expected to decrease. In addition, there are more professional investors in the bitcoin sector than in the past, which will lead to faster price correction and lower long-term volatility. Bitcoin prices soared to $20000 for the first time in 2017, but depreciated by about 80% in the next few months. According to the analysis, the current cycle is different from that in 2017, which may last longer, and more upward trends are expected in the coming months. Musk: bitcoin Tesla or in? At the same time as bitcoin’s momentum, Tesla CEO Elon Musk also publicly expressed his interest in bitcoin last week. On social networking site, musk told Michael, chief executive of MicroStrategy, a US listed company Saylor asked about the possibility of converting “big deals” on Tesla’s balance sheet into bitcoin, saying: “bitcoin’s architecture is perfect, and there are other currencies, but I’m not sure if Tesla’s involvement in the cryptocurrency circle is a good choice.” Michael Saylor advises musk: “I’ve bought more than $1.3 billion of bitcoin in the past few months. Facing the unprecedented monetary expansion this year, every CEO is faced with the challenge of how to maintain and enhance shareholder value. Bitcoin is the best solution for every individual, investor and enterprise on earth to store value. ” The exchange between the two excited the cryptocurrency circle, with investors speculating that Tesla might buy bitcoin. MicroStrategy has now owned 38250 BTC (currently worth about US $610 million) since it started buying bitcoin in August. MicroStrategy has become one of the institutions that hold a large number of bitcoin. At the same time, the company’s stock trading price also showed a substantial increase. Source: Citibank calls out the sky high price for its financial situation. Even if bitcoin has such an amazing increase, some analysts predict that bitcoin may become the “Tesla of 2021”, with the space for future growth as many as several times; some analysts have given ultra-high price targets of US $74000 and US $100000; and the target price given by Citibank is even as high as US $300000. Daisy, senior analyst at firecoin Research Institute, pointed out: “the recent rise of bitcoin may be driven by the following two factors: first, the resurgence of the UK epidemic has intensified the expectation of global economic recession, and global inflation has become an irresistible trend. In addition, deflationary assets with anti inflation properties are scarce resources, so the demand for bitcoin is further increased. The second is to compare the further expectation of the standardized products of special currency. Digital currency group, the parent company of grayscale investments, plans to launch a new wealth management subsidiary, which will add grayscale to the market or bring more standardized products to the market. The attitude of institutional users to enter the market is remarkable. Many licensed investment institutions have set up digital money funds or applied to the regulatory authorities for trading digital currency, and listed companies allocate bitcoin assets, which are unprecedented. ” However, the above analysts also pointed out that the unilateral rising market is not a healthy performance of the market, but a certain correction in the market is a healthy performance of the market. William, chief researcher of okex research, also believes that this round of bitcoin bull market is the product of high inflation expectations. Institutional investors care about profits, not “bitcoin belief” or “blockchain revolution”. After the epidemic situation is gradually alleviated, with the gradual recovery of the economy, monetary policy will gradually change from loose to moderate tightening. At that time, institutional investors are likely to sell bitcoin. Gu Yanxi pointed out that the biggest risk bitcoin faces in the near future is still the compliance risk. It is expected that in the next few years, financial regulators in the United States will continue to strengthen the regulatory measures on the trading activities and venues of bitcoin, which will certainly affect the price of bitcoin. The golden rule: risk investment in the market needs to be cautious. It is worth noting that even if bitcoin continues to reach new heights, investors need to consider their personal risk tolerance to invest prudently. According to glassnode, the risk of bitcoin reserves has reached a two-year high. Caiwenhui is integrated from China Securities Journal, CCTV finance and economics, bitcoin home network, daily economic news, China business news and Beijing business news

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