Source: during the Spring Festival, bitcoin was still the world’s biggest gainer, just as it has been in the past year. As of 18:00 Beijing time, February 17, 2021, the value of a bitcoin has risen to more than $51000 and nearly $10000 during the Spring Festival. In March 2020, at the beginning of the global outbreak, when gold was discarded and investors only wanted dollar liquidity, bitcoin fell into the abyss. The price of a bitcoin dropped to nearly 3800 US dollars. Nearly 11 months on, bitcoin is now up more than 1200%. At present, the mainstream institutions on Wall Street seem to think that this “rigid bubble” can be bigger. Take a look at the driving force of bitcoin’s rise in this year. In 2019, bitcoin will have its 10th birthday. Looking back on 2018, bitcoin fell from US $17157 to US $3733, a drop of nearly 80%, the largest crash in history. The whole year of 2019 can be said to be a year in which bitcoin slowly “returns to blood” after the crash, once approaching the level of $10000. In March 2020, as the new crown epidemic swept across the world, causing a huge financial market shock, on the evening of March 12, bitcoin plummeted by nearly 50%, from nearly $10000 to a direct minimum of $3800. At that time, it was even said that bitcoin might return to zero. In the next two months, bitcoin rebounded to about $6000. After that, bitcoin kept climbing like crazy. After sorting out the important time nodes of this round of bitcoin bull market, the first financial reporter also found that two time nodes are worthy of attention: first, in mid October 2020, bitcoin stood at the $10000 level; second, in mid December 2020, bitcoin broke through the $20000 mark, setting a new record. When bitcoin broke through US $10000 from early October 2020, we can observe the signs of institutions entering the market. For example, on October 8 of the same year, square, a mobile payment giant, suddenly announced that it would invest $50 million in bitcoin; on October 13, the asset management company Stone Ridge, which manages more than $10 billion of assets, suddenly announced that it would invest $50 million in bitcoin Holdings) disclosed that the company has purchased more than 10000 bitcoins, worth about $114 million; PayPal, the world’s largest cross-border payment platform, announced on October 22 that it would allow users to buy, sell and hold cryptocurrencies on the platform; on October 27, Singapore’s largest commercial bank, DBS Bank, announced that it would provide cryptocurrency transactions. In the second stage, when the bitcoin price broke through the $20000 mark, a large number of individual investors began to pour into the cryptocurrency market, which once caused some cryptocurrency exchanges to be stuck or down, and the market excitement was further amplified. Many people borrowed money and increased leverage to speculate in currency. The two factors work together to push the price of bitcoin up rapidly. That’s why it took two months for bitcoin to go from $10000 to $20000, and only half a month to go from $20000 to $30000. In this process, the gray scale investment of the world’s largest digital asset management company determines the short-term price trend of bitcoin. So far, the bitcoin positions of gray level funds have reached 653700, with a market value of 33.614 billion US dollars. At the beginning of 2021, bitcoin was slightly depressed due to the decline of risk sentiment. Recently, Tesla founder musk and American “bull Queen” Cathie wood frequently sang about encryption assets such as multi bitcoin, which accelerated the rise of bitcoin. On February 6 this year, bitcoin returned to the $40000 mark, the first time since January 14, while the inflow of funds into the bitcoin gray trust fund continued to increase. Musk had previously tweeted that “bitcoin is good”, “I am a supporter of bitcoin” and “I think those traditional financiers will soon accept bitcoin”. Just before the Spring Festival, the bitcoin ETF of accelerate financial was approved in Canada. This is also the first bitcoin ETF officially approved in North America. The application document was approved on February 11, which further improves the convenience of bitcoin investment and promotes the rise of currency price. Wall Street is still optimistic about the future of bitcoin. Even if it breaks through $50000, the bullish sentiment of the international market on encrypted assets is still high. The gradual promotion of ETF will be an important driving force. Li Lianxuan, chief researcher of auco cloud Chain Research Institute, told first finance and economics reporters that the US Securities Regulatory Commission (SEC) had repeatedly rejected the application of bitcoin ETF, mainly because it could not “prevent fraud and manipulation” and “protect the interests of investors and the public”. Specifically, in order to prevent market fraud, ETF initiators and regulators can enter into fraud monitoring agreements with cryptocurrency exchanges to properly monitor and prevent price manipulation, but this requires that the trading volume of such exchanges is large enough. However, in the past few years, most bitcoin exchanges are not regulated by the SEC, and the trading volume of exchanges regulated by the US government (such as coinbase, Gemini, Kraken) is not large enough, and bitcoin options of CME are only launched at the end of 2017. But today in 2021, the market situation has changed. Li Lianxuan said that the scale of CME’s bitcoin futures contract market is large enough. For example, according to skww’s latest data, the contract position has reached US $2.2 billion, ranking first in the bitcoin derivatives market; the business volume of the US cryptocurrency exchange is also growing, and they are all preparing to go public. The bitcoin market is more mature than it was a few years ago. In contrast, the bitcoin trust (GBTC) product of gray fund can be said to be a “castrated version” of bitcoin ETF. There are two main differences between GBTC and traditional ETF funds: firstly, there is no redemption mechanism for GBTC. Since October 28, 2014, the gray bitcoin trust has suspended its redemption mechanism. Although the GBTC of gray fund has passed the regulatory approval, it still has not submitted the redemption plan to the SEC; secondly, GBTC requires to lock the position after the purchase. In the traditional ETF fund trading, t + 0 trading can be realized between the primary and secondary markets. However, the current GBTC’s primary market share can only be sold in the secondary market after six months. Bitcoin ETF is better both in terms of gold content and the convenience of subscription and arbitrage. In addition, the ark research team of “bull Queen” mentioned in the trend report in January that bitcoin and others will have greater development in the future. About 60% of bitcoin had not changed hands for more than a year as of November 2020, she said, demonstrating the market’s long-term focus on it and the strong belief of its holders. At the same time, the ark team believes that bitcoin can play a key role as corporate cash. For example, square and MicroStrategy both have investments in bitcoin. They demonstrate that listed companies can configure bitcoin as a legitimate alternative to cash. According to ark, if all the companies in the S & P 500 allocate 1% of their assets to bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will increase by about $40000. The rapid rise of bitcoin makes it have a place in the asset allocation of institutions. Ark estimates that within four years, the daily trading volume of bitcoin will exceed that of the US stock market, and within six years, it will exceed the global spot foreign exchange market.