Once highly sought after appeared bitcoin flash crash. Experts believe that the main reason is the large block chain project there is a serious bubble, the market is expected to continue to pull practitioners high unrealistic height, but in reality is repeatedly “the face” after losing the confidence of the market.
Text / Mao Zhenhua
A year ago, bitcoin is crazy investment explosion models, single bitcoin price up to nearly 2 million. A year later, in the “waterfall” in the bitcoin market has reached $3600, the largest decline of 82%, the investment market is Starving people fill the land.
Just over a year, what bitcoin what happened? Where to go next?
The price fell 30% to ten days
This winter seems bitcoin is especially cold. Once a popular bitcoin investment circle, now suffer a fall from a height of the bitter taste.
“Assets fell to 85% is not bankrupt? If so, I declare bankruptcy.” A bitcoin investor in micro-blog laments. Tianjin veteran investor Liu Peng in 2016 to enter the circle of money invested 40 thousand yuan, Guncheng was 300 thousand yuan, but after the second half of this year many rounds of “currency disaster”, now lost profits.
It is the latest round of “waterfall” market, let the silence once bitcoin return to the spotlight. From the beginning of November 14th. In 6400 has been hovering around $two a month bitcoin suddenly plummeted, and yet the real bottom.
11 June 14, bitcoin opened the prelude to the flash crash, hit $5400 a year low. Ten days after the 24 day, bitcoin prices down to $4300, down more than 32%. 25, bitcoin below the recent most important psychological level of $4000, the so-called support is becoming increasingly blurred.
Held in Tianjin this summer during the Davos forum, analysts from Japan, the United States and other countries have experienced value judgment, after correction, bitcoin will linger for a long time in 4000 to $6000, based on this judgment (the process of computer output miners mining bitcoin) into the. But now, hardly support mining cost. Recently, bitcoin mining machine is large when the waste on the pounds sold video online heat transfer.
There are not willing investors ready to. At present, the domestic bitcoin transactions have no direct exchange with the OTC and registered in foreign exchange. But President Xiao Lei 500 Gold Investment Research Institute warned that bitcoin in the bear market, not good to support the existing price.
The reversal of what?
From 2009 the first announced bitcoin exchange rate of $1 average exchange 1309.03 bitcoin, 2017 prices reached the highest point, only in the past 8 years, the price doubled about 20000000 times.
The emotion in the market crazy over, a number of “currency circle Chiefs” from the backstage, advocate and prices, the opportunity to ship. The coin ring is also the emergence of a large number of “air money”, by ICO (first token issue) worthless virtual currency speculation means fast harvest leek”. However, the more higher also fall more miserable. Including China, the global multinational of bitcoin virtual currency as the representative of the fast rising phenomenon frequently warning, policies to curb overheated investment.
On the one hand is the incremental capital market running approach situation has been checked, on the other hand is the currency circle stock funds were “coin circle Chiefs”, adverse exchange, ICO project’s repeated harvesting, unable to continue to support the currency prices, making bitcoin continued to fall since the end of last year.
So, why bitcoin will begin to collapse in November 14th?
Analysis of Chinese block chain application research center director Guo Yuhang, the most direct cause is bitcoin cash (a virtual currency bitcoin forked out) hard fork, appearing on the market is competition, makes some people panic selling. Xiao Lei also said that bitcoin cash is bifurcation lead to phase force fluctuations, making bitcoin holders worried about bitcoin attacks will become possible, hedge selling intensified.
“In large block chain project there is a serious bubble, the market is expected to continue to pull practitioners high unrealistic height, but in reality is” face “after repeatedly losing confidence in the market.” Guo Yuhang believes that this is the root of the bitcoin crash.
Bitcoin market volume is relatively small, but the market value of global virtual currency is a listed Internet giant volume. With large holdings of bitcoin investors zapan, easily lead to sharp fluctuations in currency price. Statistics show that in the past year, bitcoin market value has evaporated from the highest point of 1 trillion and 600 billion yuan.
Xiao Lei said, sideways long bitcoin will stimulate investors to make a choice. The overall market is still weak, bitcoin itself does not generate a profit, the holder can only look forward to higher prices, so prices will bring a sell-off accelerating effect, the market outlook is not optimistic.
The return value or Bust?
After the slump, bitcoin will disappear from the industry debate?.
Some people are still firmly followers of bitcoin, with many small scattered. In their eyes, the total bitcoin by 21 million, showing the characteristics of local hedge assets in the international form of turmoil, a so called digital gold”.
Xiao Lei said, bitcoin’s history is short, need longer time to establish the attribute consensus consensus mechanism with gold thousands of years to form can not be compared.
At the end of last year, the Chicago Board Options Exchange and Chicago Commodity Exchange issued bitcoin futures, the industry expect financial institutions to take large sums of money into the market, support prices, but now it seems the degree of participation is still limited.
Another part of people continued bearish. Some of the famous bitcoin and the history of the tulip bubble. With a view on the computer “meaningless numbers”, bitcoin has died a day sooner or later, now the bubble was punctured.
Guo Yuhang said, bitcoin in the short term does not have the demise of the foundation, but with the continuous research and policy of the national regulatory authorities to tighten regulatory arbitrage space further narrowing.
Although bitcoin survival or not is still controversial, but the industry generally have high hopes of block chain technology. Block chain and bitcoin was born at the same time, the original bitcoin exists as the underlying technology. Fire currency founder Li Lin believes that as a point to the underlying technology in the future, the block chain and the real economy with great potential, notarization and arbitration, have a brilliant future in the tax registration, donation and other wide economic and social fields.
Not long ago, a bit, a donation of Tsinghua University School of economics and management of digital assets Financial Research Center established. Bit, CEO Jihan Wu said, the traditional financial business in the future will block chain technology and traditional financial regulatory institutions, with more, significantly enhance the financial efficiency.
Block chain is not equal to bitcoin.” Guo Yuhang called a block chain industry should explore the precise point of pain, good floor applications, achieve significantly lowering the efficiency, it may become a new generation of information infrastructure.