Bitcoin has accelerated to exceed 34000 US dollars. How much room can it rise?

Source: 36 krypton Since the beginning of this year, the main driving forces for the long-term rise of BTC mainly include four: the new crown epidemic, the central bank’s large amount of water (mainly in the United States), gray scale increase, and defi lock up. On the morning of January 3, 2021, bitcoin broke through 34000 usdt, reported to 34079.7 usdt, up more than 15% in 24 hours. According to coingecko, the market value of bitcoin is more than $630 billion, surpassing the total market value of Alibaba and becoming the eighth largest asset in the world. Why does bitcoin accelerate its rise recently? How much room for growth in the future? Why does bitcoin accelerate its rise? The following is the weekly chart of bitcoin. According to the rising trend of bitcoin, the rise of bitcoin can be roughly divided into three main price ranges: USD 5000-10000; USD 10000-20000, above USD 20000. As can be seen from the figure, with the upper resistance becoming smaller, bitcoin’s attack speed has gradually accelerated. At present, it has obviously entered a period of accelerated rise, with only “sky” above. Since the circulation of bitcoin is scarce, institutions rush to raise money after entering the market, and they intend to hold it for a long time, which makes the supply of bitcoin insufficient and further accelerates the rise of bitcoin. According to glassnode analysis, 78% of the supply of bitcoin lacks liquidity. Because a large number of bitcoin are hoarded by investors, only 4.2 million bitcoin are in continuous circulation and available for sale. Glassnode analysts further point out that a total of another 1 million bitcoins will become illiquid in 2020, and the rise in bitcoin prices indicates that the current bull market (in part) is driven by this emerging bitcoin liquidity crisis. According to coin98 analytics, a data analyst, the number of bitcoin purchased by grayscale in December 2020 was almost three times the number of bitcoins that entered the market in that month. Last month, the scale of grey asset management (AUM) increased by 72950 BTCs in total (US $2132 million). During the same period, miners produced only 28112 BTCs (US $8217.7 million), equivalent to 38.5% of the gray purchased quantity. The data highlight what many call the liquidity crunch that is emerging in bitcoin, where big buyers absorb all available supply and remove it from circulation and put it in cold storage for long-term holding. In addition to grayscale, MicroStrategy, paypal and many other organizations are also competing for funding. MicroStrategy’s CEO said he had now purchased 88000 bitcoins, worth more than $2.5 billion, and advocated a long-term holding strategy. Foreign users are still the main buyers in the market, and fomo sentiment is spreading, and there is a tendency to scramble for funds. When BTC broke through 30000 usdt, according to Joseph young, an encryption analyst, the price gap between BTC in coinbase and coin security was $350. This is an unprecedented bitcoin buying event on coinbase. This shows that foreign users’ purchase is still the main reason for the rise of bitcoin. In addition, bitcoin has the nature of risk aversion, today’s surge may be related to the tension in the Middle East. Gray scale points out in the report “great wealth transfer drives BTC to become the mainstream investment target”. Bitcoin seems to have some common points with safe haven assets, such as: 1. Scarcity; 2. Verifiable; 3. It has little correlation with traditional financial markets and is not controlled. Today, according to the information released by the U.S. military, two b-52h strategic bombers of the US Air Force took off from the U.S. mainland, loaded with a large number of cruise missiles, flew tens of thousands of kilometers and went straight to the Middle East. This is a threat to the Middle East issued by the United States nuclear bombers, and the target is Iran, a big middle east country. After reaching the Middle East, US strategic nuclear bombers immediately entered the Persian Gulf from the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Air Force’s move was aimed at putting extreme military pressure on Iran. In addition to the strategic nuclear bombers approaching Iran, the U.S. nuclear submarines also appear in the Persian Gulf, which means that the two major strategic nuclear weapons of the United States appear in the Persian Gulf. This is a very obvious signal. Trump does not rule out the possibility of using force against Iran, and it may occur at any time. Trump also said publicly today that the United States will retaliate against Iran if it causes harm to any American. Today’s tense situation in the Middle East, or the direct stimulus for bitcoin to break through the $30000 barrier. What factors contribute to the rise of bitcoin? Before that, we wrote “bitcoin broke through 20000 US dollars, a record high. Who injected the” cardiotonic “? „ÄčThe article points out that the main driving forces of BTC’s long-term rise since this year mainly include four: the new crown epidemic, the central bank’s large amount of water (mainly in the United States), gray scale increase, and defi’s lock up. With the new coronavirus mutation, the epidemic will continue for a period of time, bitcoin will continue to be affected by this. Affected by the epidemic situation, the global central bank’s “large-scale water release” has also been carried out simultaneously. According to the statement of the latest meeting of the European Central Bank in December, “in view of the impact of the resurgence of the (new coronavirus) pandemic on the economy”, the Council of the European Central Bank decided on the same day to expand the scale of the emergency asset purchase plan from the previous 1.35 trillion euro to 1.85 trillion euro, and the bond purchase will last at least until March 2022. At the same time, the European Central Bank also announced the extension of a number of preferential financing measures implemented during the epidemic period, such as the third batch of targeted long-term refinancing operations. On December 16, U.S. House Speaker Pelosi invited leaders of the democratic and Republican parties to discuss a new round of rescue plan. Then president Donald Trump signed a new $900 billion coronal pneumonia relief bill. Under the new cap relief act, single people earning no more than $75000 a year will receive a check of $600 per person, while married couples earning $150000 a year will receive a total of $1200, which is half the size of direct payments under the new coronavirus assistance, relief and Economic Security Act (cares). In addition, the bill includes a $1.4 trillion fund to keep the government running, and to expand and extend unemployment benefits for millions of unemployed Americans. In addition to gray and other institutions continue to increase significantly, new funds and institutions are also pouring in. For example, on December 28, greenpro Capital Corp announced today that it plans to raise $100 million in debt in the first quarter of 2021 to establish a bitcoin fund. On December 23, Anthony scaramucci, founder of skybridge capital, a US hedge fund and former White House communications director, said skybridge had injected $25 million into its new bitcoin fund. On December 17, CI financial, a Canadian wealth management company, completed a $72 million IPO of bitcoin fund. What is the future of bitcoin? Although bitcoin was only a niche asset attracting a small number of investors in the early stage, it is becoming more and more accepted by mainstream investors, grayscale said in the report “great wealth transfer drives BTC into the mainstream investment target”. Although most bitcoin investors don’t have much income at present, in the next 25 years, 68 trillion dollars of wealth will be transferred to the younger generation who prefer digital currency investment. In November 2020, Dalio tweeted that bitcoin was not a good value storage tool due to its high volatility and the potential of being banned by the government. But by December 2020, Dario’s view has reversed dramatically. He said bitcoin (and some other digital currencies) had established itself over the past decade as a meaningful alternative to gold. Bitcoin has similarities and differences with gold and other mobile wealth assets with limited supply (unlike real estate). On November 9, 2020, JPMorgan Chase pointed out in a report that bitcoin is eroding the market demand for gold ETFs. Institutional investors, such as family offices, see bitcoin as a digital alternative to gold, and their demand for grayscale’s bitcoin trust exceeds that of all gold ETFs combined. Nick panigirtzogluu, a market quantitative analyst at JPMorgan, believes that “as time goes on, millennials will become the most important part of the investment world, so bitcoin and gold will compete fiercely, which is beneficial to the long-term upward trend of bitcoin. Technically, bitcoin’s market value should have risen at least tenfold to match the gold market based on physical bars and gold coins. ”

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