Bitcoin hits $50000. Does the data tell you that the bull market has peaked?

Analysts, Carol editors, Tong products, panewsbtc will rise? In this round of bull market, according to the statistics of coinmarketcap, BTC has set a new record high price of $41946.74 on January 8. However, it immediately adjusted its status, which made the market wonder whether the bull market has reached the end. Until February 6, after several “orders” from Tesla CEO Elon Musk, BTC once again reached the $40000 mark in the middle of the plate, with the highest breaking through $48000. On New Year’s Eve, bitcoin once again reached a new high of $49000, and $50000 was close at hand, which made investors expect that this round of bull market may not be at its peak. It is generally believed that in the development history of BTC, 17 / 18 years is a bull market, especially during the period from December 2017 to January 2018, BTC completed the “top down” bull bear conversion. If we compare the current data of BTC, what are the similarities and differences between the two rounds of bull market? Has the bull market peaked? Compared with the 17 / 18 bull market, a significant feature of this round of bull market is that the rise of currency price is higher, but the volatility is smaller. According to the statistics of coinmarketcap, from December 17 to January 18, the peak value of currency price was about 19497 US dollars, and the highest increase was about 77.63%. However, in January, the currency price actually entered the decline channel. At the end of January, the currency price was about 10221 US dollars, with an overall increase of – 6.88% in two months. During the period from December 20 to January 21, the peak value of the currency price reached US $40798, with the highest increase of 116.98%. The overall increase of two months also reached 76.11%. With the growth of BTC market value, its daily average volatility is also gradually reduced. During the period from December 17 to January 18, the highest one-day volatility of BTC was about 35.78%, especially in the first ten days of December in the main rising stage of currency price, the multi-day volatility was more than 25%. On the whole, the average daily volatility of BTC is about 12.18% in the two months of 17 / 18 years. However, from December 20 to January 21, the one-day volatility of BTC is much smaller. Even in December, when the currency price rises, the one-day volatility is basically less than 10%. Within two months, the highest one-day volatility of BTC is about 25.52%, and the average daily volatility is about 7.91%. In the case of high currency price increase and low currency price volatility, the currency holding income of this round of bull market is slightly higher than that of the previous round. According to statistics, from December 17 to January 18, the highest return rate of 30 days holding currency was about 199.1%. When BTC fell to the currency price level at the beginning of December 17 in January 18, the 30 day return of holding currency was negative, about – 25.4%. This shows that in the last round of bull market, investors affected by fomo sentiment suffered great losses because of chasing up. However, on the whole, during the two months of the last bull market, the average return of 30 days of holding currency was about 42.1%. In contrast, from December 20 to January 21, the highest return of 30 days holding coins is slightly lower, about 120.7%, but the average return of 30 days holding coins is higher, about 45.7%. Although in this round of bull market, we can still see the rapid decline of 30 day return rate of holding currency, but the difference is that investors only reduce the yield because of the high cost of building positions, and do not suffer losses. In this round of bull market, the unilateral upward trend is more significant, and the currency price has broken through the $40000 barrier for many times. However, MVRV index shows that the market price consensus is still very strong, which is lower than the bubble degree at the peak of the previous bull market. MVRV index is an index developed by coin metrics to reflect the long-term investors’ preference. It represents the ratio of current market value to realized market value. If it is less than 1, it means that the current price is lower than the overall value consensus of market participants, and the pricing is underestimated. Otherwise, if it is greater than 1, it means that the current price is higher than the overall value consensus of market participants, and the pricing is overvalued. According to statistics, the average MVRV index of BTC from December 17 to January 18 is about 4.7, and that of BTC from December 20 to January 21 is about 3.8. Although the overall value consensus of market participants is higher than the current price during the two rounds of bull market, under the condition of higher currency price increase, not only the average MVRV but also the peak value of BTC is lower 79, lower than 4. 72 during the last bull market. This means that the current market participants’ overvalued pricing level is lower than that of the previous bull market. If the highest pricing level during the previous bull market is taken as a reference, then it means that market participants in this bull market can tolerate higher price consensus, and BTC still has room to rise. The nominal trading volume increased significantly, and the proportion of trading circulation decreased. During this bull market, the market trading activity was higher. According to statistics, from December 17 to January 18, the nominal daily average trading volume of each exchange was about US $13.332 billion, and the maximum daily trading volume was about US $23.841 billion. During the period from December 20 to January 21, the nominal daily average trading volume of each exchange reached 54.325 billion US dollars, with the highest single day trading volume of about 123.321 billion US dollars. In addition, the daily trading volume of five days exceeded 80 billion US dollars. On average, the average daily trading volume during this bull market is about four times that of the previous round. In terms of circulation, during this bull market, there are more BTCs in free circulation in the market, but they account for less of the total supply. According to statistics, during the period from December 17 to January 18, the average number of BTCs in free circulation on the market was about 13.9821 million. From December 20 to January 21, the number was about 14.5098 million, an increase of about 3.77%. The absolute growth of free circulation is related to the increase of absolute value of BTC total supply. However, if the proportion of free circulation in total supply is calculated, it can be found that the proportion of free circulation BTC in total supply has decreased by about 5% during this bull market. According to statistics, free circulation BTC accounted for 83.33% of the total supply on average from December 17 to January 18, while the figure dropped to 78.10% from December 20 to January 21. According to coinmetrics’s definition of free float, “free float tokens do not include corporate, foundation and founding team tokens; tokens that investors have been formally restricted (through law or smart contracts); tokens that are still visible in the chain but have been destroyed; or demonstrable lost tokens (if > 0.25% of supply) It can be speculated that the decrease of free circulation BTC may be related to the increase of long-term currency holding of companies (Institutions) and the increase of token quantity restricted by individual investors due to mortgage. But overall, this means that BTC liquidity has declined during this bull market. Not only the liquidity of BTC has been reduced, but also the chip distribution of BTC is more dispersed during this bull market. According to statistics, during the period from December 17 to January 18, the average proportion of the total amount of currency held by the top 100 addresses in the total supply was about 17.82%, and the highest proportion was about 18.68%. However, during the period from December 20 to January 21, the average proportion of the total amount of currency held by the top 100 addresses in the total supply decreased to 13.41%, about 4.4 percentage points lower than that during the last bull market, and the chip dispersion was further strengthened. The active address and number of transactions on the chain are basically the same. Different from the market data, the data on the chain of bitcoin is relatively stable during these two bull markets. From the perspective of the number of users on the chain, according to statistics, from December 17 to January 18, the daily average number of active addresses on the chain of bitcoin was about 1043200, and the maximum number of active addresses in a single day was about 1290400. In addition, there were 38 days of active addresses per day, accounting for 62.30% of the total number of days (62 days). During the period from December 20 to January 21, there were about 1.1083 million active addresses on the daily average chain of bitcoin, an increase of 6.24% compared with the average daily level of the previous bull market. There are 55 days with more than 1 million active addresses in a single day, accounting for 88.71% of the total number of days, among which the highest number of active addresses is about 1344900. From the chain trading several times, the data during the two rounds of bull market were basically flat. During the period from December 17 to January 18, the average daily number of transactions on the chain of bitcoin was about 323400, and the maximum number of daily transactions reached 498100. In addition, there were seven days for more than 400000 transactions per day. During the period from December 20 to January 21, the daily average number of transactions on the chain of bitcoin decreased slightly to 319300, and the maximum number of daily transactions was only 402100, which was lower than the data during the last bull market, but it was still the same as the active addresses on the chain, which was basically the same. It can be seen that the driving force for the continuous rise of BTC is not mainly generated by the improvement of data in the chain, but more dependent on other factors in the market environment. The popularity of social media decreased slightly, and the new bull market did not break through the circle. During the two rounds of bull market, BTC’s social media heat was different, which showed the difference in the composition of market participants. According to statistics, from December 17 to January 18, there were 5.3993 million tweets with “bitcoin” topic on twitter, with an average daily number of 87100, and the maximum number of tweets per day was about 155600. Moreover, the change of the number of tweets and the trend of currency price have been basically the same. From December 20 to January 21, there were 4.426 million tweets with “bitcoin” topic on twitter, with an average of 71000 tweets per day The total amount decreased by 18.46% compared with the previous bull market. Moreover, the number of tweets reached a small peak at the end of January, with a daily maximum of about 200800, but it was not the peak of currency price at that time. On the other hand, from the search index of “bitcoin” keyword in Google, the average daily search index from December 17 to January 18 is about 233.8, with a peak value of 616.9. From December 20 to January 21, the average daily search index was about 150.8, with a peak value of 363.6, and the average daily search index decreased by about 35.50%. By comparison, it can be found that the social media heat of this bull market is lower, which may mean that the participants and main drivers of this bull market are not from the general public. The market is formed in constant trading. Comparing the current data with the previous round of bull market can not accurately predict the process of the future bull market. In February, BTC is still in the upstream channel. As of February 8, coinmarketcap showed that BTC had reached a new high of 47131.35, and the bull market was still in progress. The only certainty is that the duration of this bull market will far exceed that of the previous round.

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