Bitcoin market price analysis of consolidation, the trend is unknown
Today is June 23, 2017. According to the bitcoin trading network btctrade platform bitcoin current price 19749 yuan. Compared with the previous few days, yesterday the currency price amplitude is smaller, the highest point and the lowest point within a distance of less than 1000. However, in many of the upside highs down gradually, that many of the upside lack energy.
4 hours chart, the average system (5,10,20) long pattern of destruction, a trend toward the adhesion of NA60 to the running direction again. This level is shown in the chart, during the last two days of shock, the shadow of a long line that K, below the active buying power is still strong. At the same time, random index and strength index are formed north stretching the MACD, level of currency price look more carefully.
At 1 hours, two times MACD index MACD below the zero axis, and currency prices again break MA60. If the currency price fell to confirm the multi break is effective, so many might once again break through 20 thousand yuan mark, to reverse the current situation is to suppress.
Overall, although yesterday the short side continues to suppress the currency price, resulting in multi peak upside in a gradual decline, but did not break the multi defense support 19000~18700, and in the adjustment period, the overall turnover shrinking. Therefore, both sides in high saw battle will end soon. BIP148UASF:8 1 July
Analysis of bitcoin: bitcoin expansion pattern is move toward reunification or split?
Bitcoin seems to face two future.
The $40 billion economic network or usher in the history of the largest change, or the most advanced SegWit2x will be the largest expansion compromise political failure.
In the last few weeks and months, bitcoin expansion situation can change constantly, even in a day, a sudden change in the situation, the expansion of the proposal of various stakeholders and competition has begun to seize the opportunities and get media attention.
However, many people do not know is that in the chaos, bitcoin has been making progress in slow and dispersion, which can be reflected in this field for several years of efforts to increase trading capacity will soon end.
This is partly the result of last month a key proposal.
After a meeting on May meeting, some bitcoin companies and miners launched a SegWit2x expansion solution, though this is not the first time, but the SegWit2x is considered to be the most advanced alternative route map BitcoinCore has long advocated the selection of the.
With the vast majority of bitcoin mining pool and a digital currency group (DCG) organized more than 50 companies of group commitment, the first part SegWit2x now has enough clout to advance the plan.
After August, bitcoin will reach some conclusion about expansion. Some expansion of solutions than other more likely. Bitcoin may achieve a smooth upgrade, or not. However, bitcoin expansion may eventually get a lot of different results.
At present, the most important part is that all groups are pushing for a witness called isolation (SegWit) changes. The original BitcoinCore roadmap, SegWit2x plan as well as the user activates the soft branch (UASF) “is to achieve SegWit.
SegWit has been successfully implemented in Wright currency network, and no error occurred. SegWit can enhance the ability of bitcoin trading brought other improvements. But SegWit has not been activated in the bitcoin network. (some ore pool operator and mining Hard Suits Inc has long opposed SegWit, as opposed to the motivation is more diverse.)
But now with all the proposals in different ways to support the SegWit, many people think that this marks the SegWit will eventually be in the summer to activate the community.
The problem is that this will not be because of the upgrade of the SegWit in different ways and eventually led to bitcoin One divides into two.
First, some signs of mine pool showed that they want to take radical measures hard bifurcation of the bitcoin block size increased to 2MB. If this happens, bitcoin may be in the summer split into two competing assets this year.
Difficult is the focus of expansion debate is still changing.
However, in order to contribute to the understanding of the current situation, the following are some of the time line expansion proposal.
SegWit2x soft bifurcation: July 21st
According to the formal description of BIP141, SegWit was first launched in November last year. Bitcoin is as high as 80% nodes are running SegWit code.
Although SegWit is controversial, but it should be pointed out that SegWit was originally advertised as “a compromise”, because it increases the block size (though not by hard encoding “block size” approach).
Because of this, some people think this act of discontent. For example, most mine pool is not willing to upgrade their software to support the SegWit, either because they do not agree with this change, either because they do not care about.
Due to the existence of SegWit argue that other people are looking for a more consistent with the requirements of stakeholders of the way to enhance the ability of bitcoin transactions.
SegWit2x is an alternative proposal, a combination of SegWit and 2MB block size increases. Most bitcoin companies and representatives of 80% of the resources pool has signal support the proposal.
As previously mentioned, this compromise can license for SegWit2x. As of Monday, the vast majority of bitcoin is being supported SegWit2x signal.
This support is not binding, but according to the technical team of the schedule, the SegWit2x code is expected to be released in July 21st. Once released, the mine pool will be able to run and support this change signal.
If the SegWit2x code to run mine pool 80% and dug up 672 blocks (4 to 5 days), then SegWit will be locked. Although this is not binding, it is worth noting that mine pool program lock before August 1st SegWit.
Three months later, the second part of the SegWit2x protocol, 2MB block size increase is expected to be activated. The problem is that if not all users upgrade, it can cause the bitcoin split into two assets. At least some users said they did not plan to upgrade.
Schedule: SegWit2x signal support began in July 21st, three months after the activation of SegWit, if the user wants to support the 2MB block size increases, so will need to upgrade their software.
Who support SegWit2x? Most large companies and bitcoin mining pool
If the pool SegWit2x lock before July 31st, then the activation of SegWit may become a foregone conclusion, some events may be reversed after otherwise.
BIP148UASF:8 1 July
BIP148UASF also aims to activate SegWit, but different ways to SegWit2x.
BIP148 uses a relatively old consensus way to upgrade this way before promoting the code changes clearly requires mining pool support. (bitcoin community in some so called this “bitcoin Independence Day”.)
Many users and some companies are already running can trigger the BIP148 code. At that time, the node will begin to refuse no signal support SegWit block.
This is why the idea is controversial. When these nodes refuse to block, they will put these blocks to a different bitcoin network. This is a controversial idea, because, with the hard as this may lead to the bifurcation, bitcoin One divides into two.
However, some people think that this is more of a psychological effect. For example, some people think that more and more around the SegWit2x mine pool will be obtained for BIP148 growth response. If you don’t want to split the bitcoin mining pool, then SegWit need to activate before August 1st.
Schedule: August 1st, the nodes running BIP148 will start from rejecting those that do not support SegWit miners block.
Who support BIP148: some users, enterprises, miners and developers
12 hours after the activation of UAHF:BIP148
If the BIP148 is implemented in August 1st, mining company plans to launch a bit, the user activates the bifurcation (UAHF) hard to deal with.
According to the bit, said, this can protect the user money in the case of division. In theory, bitcoin hard bifurcation to avoid encounters “cleaning”, this cleaning may lead to a chain of records on the block version was accidentally eliminated.
However, if the final mining mine pool a competitive branch chain, then they may lose some money. So, some people say, UAHF is a bit.
Another mining company, ViaBTC also announced a protection plan for some people to the community does not support the SegWit2x 2MB in the hard part of the bifurcation.
The goal of ViaBTC is far fetched, they plan to raise funds through the ICO to create a greater incentive block bitcoin.
Schedule: if the implementation of BIP148, the mainland will begin to dig a bit private block chain, and get enough support to open more bitcoin users.
Who support? The two big mining company, and ViaBTC, a bit
What will happen to us?
However, once the pool locked SegWit2x, then all the other expansion project will become the past. If SegWit2x cannot activate, remember that the bitcoin expansion situation will be more complex.
At the same time, there will be some other complexity, of which the most important is that bitcoin users may keep silent in the struggle.
This is the main point of the argument BlockstreamCEOAdamBack and Blockcain CEOPeterSmith on the list. Back believes that the user does not want a small group of entities to decide a decentralized monetary rules, while Smith asserts that bitcoin wallet users want to lower fees.
In view of the complexity of the expansion of the bitcoin, the biggest problem is not perhaps will upgrade, but in the bitcoin network vision which side will win (or failure).