During this period of time into the block chain industry, the author was effectively, this is a very diverse field: both the professional and experienced scholars have a vibrant market operation; both papers are too profound to be understood, pleasant piece; and as an industry analyst, the author himself sometimes think, write analysis report strong theoretical blindly is very boring, so in this article today, to talk about the topic down to earth. That is, the duration of the current bear market and bear market during the winter preparation. Personally, I have to own for some observations and experience this year blockchain bear market experience, and everyone to share, after all, as the saying goes: in the winter period, in order to Baotuan heating. According to the Convention, is divided into three parts, you can choose your friends interested in reading:
1, the bear market is how come? Project flood + application Co.
2, the bear market is how not? Clearing capacity + block chain spread 3
3 practitioners do not leave the banquet: Winter
4, investors have winter: beyond expectation
Bitcoin, a bear market is how come? Project flood + application Co.
I believe many of my friends have been witnessed to block, chain industry 2018 years has experienced a dramatic process of how. Ten months ago, the whole social elite was also the first to break the industry to squeeze, all walks of life chiefs in the group WeChat group in the discussion area chain until 3 at night do not sleep, but after a short period of ten months, the industry almost have become a wasteland, a mechanism No one shows any interest in their chiefs silence, leaving only those at the beginning of the year is hung on the top of the hill, and now many investors embarrassing practitioners.
Can say so: if someone bought the final single for the 2018 the blockchain feast, there is no doubt that ordinary investors and practitioners — people who spent money to buy digital currency, watch their assets shrink relative currency by more than 90%, you know at the beginning of the year, many investors want their assets over 10 times or even 100 times, but feel shy, you hand the money now, possibly is the original 1/10 and 1/100. As for those practitioners, although known as “insiders”, but worse than investors, many of them with ideals into the industry, result in spirit, it is all extremely unbearable to see this scene within a year, makes a lot of people’s mentality in fact has collapsed, and the material, in the industry cold, ordinary investors may affect the venue rather than outside the income, but for living in this industry practitioners, their inside and outside income are severely affected. For example, some time ago a block chain company due to cash flow or not, not only a lot of staff salaries, even social security have stopped, many employees had taken years of social security records so broken, can be said to be very miserable.
In this case, the entire block chain industry is filled with a very confused mood. In the past period of time, often there will be some investors and practitioners in a private letter sent to a friend, ask my views on the future of the market, this is one of the most frequent one question is: the bull market can not come to? What time do you come? For this problem, I can give a very positive answer: that is sure to. Specific reasons, the author in the previous “when” and “block chain face currency block chain application Trilogy” has been mentioned, here no longer. What time can you come, the individual is estimated to be about 1 years, in general, is probably 1 to 3 years.
With the conclusion, the author to tell you about the inference process, this conclusion, strictly speaking, if we want to understand what when the bear market ended, we must find out the cause of the bear market, you can not be like the sketch: “I don’t want to know how to bear, I want to know is how not to bear the.” It really feel shy, you do not want to understand this problem, 80% is not boil the bull market of the other side, because you have no bottom. It’s like two people meet, if you get to, you must want to know who was late and how long will it take to, why not to? Only the general understanding of the situation, for example he because of traffic jam, an hour to like this, you have the patience to wait, or you don’t know what you must stay for half an hour and departed.
In fact, as early as January, the hottest time block chain industry earlier this year, I had a personal public number, wrote an article, the digital currency index level rose in may have an end, why I am in that situation to industry poured cold water? The reason is simple: the essence of asset price is composed of two aspects of supply and demand, while at the beginning of all walks of life to block up the chain the highest enthusiasm, the market has been the existence of two potential crisis:
A project is too much. Basically you can think of a respected social people dare to run out a coin, finally exaggerated to what extent? The bottom chain of hundreds, even thousands of exchange, had come up with a stable currency pile, the media is simply more count.
Two people did not always want to understand the blockchain can do what. In the commodity attribute, that is just at the beginning of the year, three o’clock in the community, all chiefs argued, did not debate why can block chain. Even after a year now, the topic is still groping. While the financial attributes, it is speculative demand, with the popularity of block chain technology related knowledge, the number of people money to the center and intelligent contract related knowledge by a face of initial loss, to now have a general understanding, also gradually found that it didn’t have no imagination in so bad, this information asymmetry disappear, so many institutions and investors think “blockchain Buguoruci”, lost to investment related assets and enterprises enthusiasm, at least in their opinion, people should do the right thing at the right time, and the current block chain, in a variety of performance is limited. That is not a good investment targets, even now, is not a good time to invest.
Block chain market project, and a decline in social demand flood consequences, in fact only one: that is, asset prices under pressure. This is also the author of the prediction is an important reason for the digital market in the short term will no longer be exponentially increasing at the beginning of the year, but I was judged under a number of existing projects, and later people crazy of the blockchain was far beyond my imagination, at least as a media reader, the author is to feel keenly aware of: the market would jump out of business out of so many XX, the most tragic is that in the middle of the year when the industry broke a lot of negative news, which have the potential to block the incremental funding chain at the wind – and fled, and many of the existing stock of capital withdrawal from outside, so so, we see a digital currency collapse in the market this year.
Two, the bear market is how not? Clearing capacity + block chain spread 3
In the understanding of the market this year is how come, we can know that this year is no need to bear. The whole is from two aspects, one is the reduction in the number of the market of the project, another is to increase the external funding for the blockchain assets of the rigid demand and investment demand.
We first take the supply side. If friends have recently read all kinds of coin ring media should be able to understand, the whole atmosphere last month money circle a words can be summarized: completely lost. I give you find a few media headlines, you feel yourself:
“Coin circle cool, run! “
“Exchange survey: trading volume, flow down spared,” thousands of times “water is difficult to decline”
“Almost all fall, currency circle group who talk about faith has been occupied Alipay red…… “
“Status block chain media: at least 20 more stops, most of the losses, barely”
From the current market reaction, we respond to this situation is generally pessimistic, this may be due to people’s emotions can cause each other infection. But I can tell you: don’t follow those out from within the industry with depression. Some practitioners of the tragedy, not necessarily all practitioners of tragedy, nor is the tragedy of investors — of course, if you invest it said another run away.
As I mentioned before, why block chain industry will enter the market? An important reason is the current market related services supply and demand imbalance, the negative effect brought to the industry practitioners of dragons and fishes jumbled together not to mention it. So, for a period of time before the coin ring closures, it is actually equivalent to the block chain industry supply side reforms, the asset prices are not bad, not only to those who the people entering the industry to squeeze out. A term used by industry researcher often said to describe, is the market clearing or capacity optimization. I recently saw some interviews from the company point of view, there is a considerable part of the company’s cash reserves amount only about a year or so, this is not the divestment of investors. That is to say about a year or so, the number of block chain project on the market should be reduced to meet the bull market, at least to the external capital market value pulled up the overall situation. Say some words for some be beneath the human character, unqualified block chain enterprises (especially chaos), they exit more quickly more thoroughly, more favorable for the blockchain, after all, I believe that few people are willing to see this year that the general turmoil chaos, last forever in this industry.
After reading the supply side, we look at the demand side. Strictly speaking, digital currency each round of raging bull market, the market demand pull nature are derived from information asymmetry, is outside the block chain industry, do not know whether the so-called “digital currency industry” sell much value, do not know the tokens can be used to do what use, stereotype is “great imagination”, so in the other out of high price situation, they still dare to take the wheel, for example at the end of last year, all people are now feeling the digital currency market is too irrational, but the problem is that in which people is no reason. Because the reason is to be based on mutual understanding. At that time, there are a considerable number of people do not know what is the blockchain, but see this sci-fi atmosphere very heavy words, felt immediately to the abandoned era, so anxious to give everything to the car. However, as long as the two sides of the symmetric information gradually began to say people think bitcoin does not impact the existing dollar order, and “combination block chain + Intelligent contract” at present application is limited, then the bull market tide has gradually subsided. This phenomenon is particularly evident in Chang 2013 in 2013 2017, two rounds of the bull market, it is not clear what is bitcoin; and in 2017, it is not clear what is the chain block.
So, the blockchain bear 2018 years, the demand side of the weakness has been very obvious reasons: outside the block chain industry now has a lot of it through a variety of materials to understand the enlightenment to the center and intelligent contract is roughly what that means, but the existing block chain technology cannot attract them, even another vest does not work, such as some time ago STO response is very flat, at least not made much of a role in stimulating the market. This suggests that in the current industry chain blocks, either technology or financial concepts, by commercial speculation and theoretical research, to create a force of asymmetric information is not feasible, we must come up with real products, and make the landing circulation in large areas, in order to let the outside feel anxious, and are willing to pay you for this technology, intelligent Ethernet is contract like Fang was born in 2015, but let the fame, the final “blockchain 2 gods” status, also is the financing problem of start-ups in 2016~2017 solution, ICO.
However, with the reform of “block chain” supply side generally can be inferred will continue for about a year, based on the block chain block chain 2 above the 3 killer application, at present actually do not see the signs, for example, I personally think that the killer application will be 3 of the block chain is a distributed community based on the business organization (DAO), so as to make the industry more by B2C become C2C, but in this case the blockchain industry do not have one, even there is no outcrop signs, from this point of view, the author thinks that the emergence of block chain 3 application, may have to wait a year or two or three years. Because of the development and application of Internet application cycle explosion models is almost such a long time. In a word should be better than money ring clearing capacity longer, but once the application and spread, and will usher in another round of asymmetricinformation established in the industry both inside and outside the big bull market, then we feel that anxiety atmosphere at the beginning of 2018, will be at the time of industry insiders who repeat but at that time, we will not be anxious in a crowd.
Three practitioners do not leave the banquet: Winter
In the bear market may know roughly duration after we come to know that in this period of waiting for the bull market, we want to do, it is a relatively elegant posture?
In this regard, the practitioners and investors respectively provided two sets of recommendations, because in the last few months, I found many confused practitioners is actually less than investors. As stated earlier, digital currency is at most a bear market may affect investors in income, but their income as the main work of OTC was not affected, the salary or the names of not mistaken, but many practitioners is not the same, they are extremely anxious, because not only their own currency speculation loss in a complete mess, and wages shrink, or even hair does not come out, leading to family has become a problem. In this case, in fact, many people have considered leaving the block chain. However, this industry chain block, it has a characteristic: once you bear in the car, want to bull market is very difficult. So now they are in a very difficult position: on the one hand do not want to leave this promising industry, but on the other hand, it is also how to do?
Here, I recommend that all facing similar problems in block chain industry friends ask yourself three questions:
1, in your current job do not satisfied with?
If the answer is satisfied, the OK, you can continue to work; if not, please move on to the next question.
2, you are on the block chain industry is not satisfied or dissatisfied to the enterprise?
If the industry is, I suggest you change jobs, because this industry will make people very disappointed in the next period of time, can not earn too much money. If a particular enterprise, please go on to the next question.
3, in addition to the existing jobs, you can in the industry chain block can not find other work?
If you can, I suggest you quit. If not, you can consider other industries to work temporarily, but in the process of changing jobs, remember:
First, if temporarily unable to block the industry chain industry, some way I suggest you can choose to switch to low profile.
In this regard, we note that, from a chain to block out the taboo: not in a public channel (like a circle of friends): with block chain industry “break” and “left” and “farewell” that tone of statement, otherwise, when the bull market, it is difficult for you to re train. In fact, the bear market situation is not good, the ways that everyone can understand, like an a coin, before the bear market when they went to live business over a period of time, until the bull came back, but we did not have any resentment, because when she left and did not say to this industry draw the boundaries of how you like, and this year some circles celebrities, such as XX and XX, because they made before this kind of “farewell coin circle” more decisive position, have something to say never, make people disgusted, so if you want to come back to seek cooperation, the 80% is to is a group of ridicule, but in quite a long period of time can not get people’s trust, and the trust of the people can play what role in this industry, everybody’s heart, here is not to start talking about.
Second, if your next job as well as some of the more abundant leisure time, and hopes to return to the block chain industry, I recommend that you may through the open channel, continue to have a voice in the industry.
All along, we have a misconception: that is the block chain industry of the “car” must represent the purchase of digital money, or work in the block chain company. In fact. As long as you are in the block chain industry investment, even in the car, “and” investment “as everyone knows, most of the time is not limited to money, can also be their time and energy. That is to say, even if you can continue to spend time in the industry output or sound to build their own personal brand in the circle, is also a kind of “in the car”. In fact, many practitioners friends may not have noticed, for block chain practitioners, in fact now is the best time to build a personal brand. An analogy: we can think about is how fortune – bit, in 2014 after a few years, the whole machine industry is shrinking trend, but it is only in this way, the contrarian growth in mining industries within the weight becomes more and more high, which varied from zero into the world’s largest mining giant.
For block chain practitioners roots for you now, just like standing bear in early 2014 bit, it can be said is a voice in the industry, a good opportunity to expand their influence, because the industry is in a slump the overall sense of presence is weak, if you can contrarian up, a lot of vocal that is, your voice for the whole industry in the proportion of the sound will be more and more big, like a bear market in the mainland for personal IP bits, build and realization, is undoubtedly a very large benefits. But if your next job is busy, do not have enough time to make their voices heard through public channels, such as what to write some articles, I suggest that, even for some bursts of block chain industry to determine the trend, also on the personal brand building plays an important role, because most of the time, your voice is how much is one thing, but you have no sound, it is another.
Four: investors winter: treasure beyond expectation
After reading the practitioners, we look at investors, although the bear market is often a good time to buy the dips of stock, but in fact I did not intend to recommend with this, one is that many friends had actually been almost out of ammunition, on the other hand, if you hold the bargain hunting mentality admission results back by cut, that is very hurt morale. For example, now let you return to the bitcoin 200 Yuan era, for example, in 2011 June, would you buy? It is estimated that many people will buy Nabe Uritetsuka lever, well, I’ll tell you what will happen next: in half a year, bitcoin will drop to ten yuan, even if bitcoin would rush to nearly 10 thousand yuan price after two years, after six years will be 100 thousand yuan, but during this period of time and you must be very depressed, my confidence is also greatly reduced. So, today I want to tell you, in fact, is another thing.
Many ordinary investors who may not be aware that you actually have a very envious of an outsider, but completely unable to copy the label: it is “the block chain industry early participant”, this point is even more powerful elite, is in any case can not match — after all, can work in gold, you can quit, but the early investment experience, is never fake. In fact, this year the US currency circle will be difficult to find, many projects, claiming to be entered into the bitcoin industry in 2013 and 2014, which many are in fact pull, if you do not believe that he put the wallet address light out, or Babbitt himself or one bit of the forum the account issued, or a small circle of small coins was interesting gossip, let everyone see, these eight achievements in the look the other way. Why do they lie about it.? As we all know, in the block chain such a relatively new industry, “early entry” this point is very powerful, it is not only that you will see more than others, the more marks you have deposited in this industry for a few years, not for short-term cut a leek and their in recent years the accumulation of fame all away, of course, except for some rough skin and flesh of the chiefs, here is not named.
So for investors, friends if there is money, there is also interest in, can choose when buying some digital currency. If there is no money, the hunters are not interested, please leave footprints in the industry chain in the block, not particularly in-depth articles, even a forum post or wallet address, but also valuable. Because you are in such an early time block chain industry into the Bureau, which in itself is very great, can be realized in the future things, do not believe you will see those old leek in 2011 and 2012, even if they had more short-term operation thanks to God utterly routed, by now there is no bad mix. Suppose that, when the 2020 or 2021 years of the bull market, a large number of new Chinese chives and overwhelming comes into play, you can tell them: I am the admission in the 2017/2018 years old, it is time you open a small leek, close the circle to share experiences, or a line class, estimate the admission charge of people it is not in the minority.
In fact, research in the digital currency that, compared to the block chain practitioners, investors are the two biggest advantages:
First, a lot of people’s income is not to rely on the industry, therefore, carefully investigated down, we can stay in this industry time, maybe more than many people work long time, as I mentioned earlier, when a lot of leek in 15, 16 years of time to stare every day, he has a run to live a career, that time you haven’t fully prepared to work, but also must more than her for a long time, the research on time digital currency market will be deeper than her.
Second, investors often only care about their own buy coins and the track, which makes them understand in some segments of the industry, in fact, more professional than the so-called practitioners. We want to know a little, a lot of practitioners, especially as researcher, media, and community operators, their attention is to follow the flow of running, where hot go to rub it, which makes them look but less attention, as if a period of time before the price rises, cyber source EOS a large number of projects and earn money this election opportunities, investors are first discovered and seized, and practitioners are good. That is to say, long time the focus is a big advantage for investors, but this advantage with the passage of time will be more and more popular. Just as if you are in 90s to enter the China stock market, and has been concerned about the biological stocks, and now go to snowball open column to write something to tell you, you do not think red is difficult, and those so-called analysts, their eyes due to insufficient attention, many investors did not actually understand much more.
About the current bear market may continue in time, and in the industry during the winter we need a little experience to winter, temporarily with you here. When the share information comb, I see is that although the industry is filled with gloom, but still standing in the block chain practitioners and investors on the one hand, from the experience of other industries, in the next few years, we are made for this industry the contribution will be amplified by time, but also will eventually get their pay from the industry. Although the blockchain is still a development and growth of industry plagued by anxiety, but we still need to pay attention to psychological adjustment and living arrangements. In this slightly long and protracted war, to get the possibility of growth through the overdraft in their own way, so it is very small, and in the work and investment, we must be on the side of good friends, loved ones better and better on their own. After all, we never forget, for a lot of friends, work or fried coins worth mentioning, it is a kind of means, and let themselves and their families a better life, is the ultimate goal of more people.
Finally, the author comes to an end today’s article with Nietzsche’s words: those who can not destroy our things, will make us stronger.