Bitcoin, RMB, Tesla, Maotai, China! The feast of the world’s top assets under the 200 trillion “flood”, 2021 bull market?

Source: financial website Author: Yan Li: in 2020, the global market experienced the test of ice and fire, and after the impact of the extreme epidemic, an unprecedented surge of water came. If we want to make a summary of this year’s market, it can be said that it is an ultimate feast under the torrent of funds. Under the global 200 trillion flood epidemic, the world is scrambling to raise the flag of water discharge. Although this is not the optimal solution, it has become the most convenient and violent answer. Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates that the global currency release has reached 210 trillion yuan. As the second largest economy, China’s social finance has increased by nearly 40 trillion yuan in the whole year under the epidemic. Although it is more restrained than overseas countries, it is also better than the “4 trillion stimulus” 12 years ago. Money never sleeps, the epidemic is still spreading, and under the background of sluggish recovery of the real economy, where to go has become a problem. What is the best choice to buy in the year has also become the top concern of investors at the end of the year. The water released seems to be quiet, but it has set off huge waves in many assets. The financial sector’s “financial eye” inventory shows that bitcoin, RMB, US stock technology giants, and the three golden flowers of a share (liquor consumption, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic), etc., have become the top assets in this big release. Bitcoin, the new “safe haven king”, has soared by 216%. As a new safe haven, bitcoin is hiding the light of gold. The market performance in recent months can be described as “Crazy”. A few days ago, bitcoin once hit a record high of more than 24000 US dollars (about 157000 yuan), with a year-on-year increase of more than 216%. Especially in recent days, bitcoin has continued to rise due to the massive influx of institutions. During the year, the most famous base of bitcoin was gray fund, which was called “the largest Mingzhuang in the currency circle”. From December 15 to 18, the total asset management scale increased from US $13 billion to US $15.5 billion, mainly in bitcoin. Moreover, as a result of years of buying and buying of special currency, its operation has become a vane for retail investors to buy. According to a group of data, since 2013, gray fund has achieved 61 times revenue, and bitcoin has become the core driving force of the boom. Nowadays, under the historical background of the great release of water, the risk aversion, such as bitcoin being snapped up, is the game between human nature and money, which is also the choice of funds. But the consistent “king of safety” gold crazy for a period of time, appears to be lack of stamina. “Financial eye” shows that compared with the double income of bitcoin, gold increased by only 23% in the year, but at the historical level, this is the higher income level of gold in the year. TFAANG´╝č 50% of the established forces and 6 times the number of new talent. Needless to say, the U.S. stock technology giants represented by Facebook (NASDAQ: FB), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFlx), and alphabet (NASDAQ: Google), the parent company of Google, are also big winners. The NASDAQ index has been hit new highs one after another. With the outbreak of the epidemic crisis, the U.S. technology giants are leading the world in terms of digitalization, online and sense of science and technology. As a global core asset, share prices naturally soared. Among them, apple increased by 76%, Amazon by 73%, Netflix by 63%, Facebook by 33%, Google by 30%, with an average increase of about 50%. However, old tech stocks are far behind the rookie Tesla. This year, Tesla has soared 676% for the whole year, which has become an undoubted myth of US stocks. Maybe faang should change its name. The strongest track of A-share: Liquor and new energy are the first countries in the world to get out of the shadow of the epidemic and the first country to recover its economy. The performance of China’s assets is also very wonderful. If you choose the right stocks, the bull market goes through every day. In the United States, it is the same with a shares. In terms of structure, the two groups were the most outstanding in the year. The first group is the “new” era represented by new energy vehicles and photovoltaic; the second group is the old “liquor technology” represented by Maotai flavor and Luzhou flavor. The collision between new money and old money is the collision of faith. No matter which one you bet on, the pot is full. According to the data, the liquor index increased by 137% and the new energy index increased by more than 82%. The popularity of the track continues. Looking at the recent high-level operation and market choice, we can see that there is no need to talk about the faith behind the courage to smash Longji shares with 15.8 billion yuan at a high level. On the same day, another new energy track leader, Ningde era, historically “surpasses” PetroChina and deduces the era of Ningde era, which opens a new situation for the capital market. The market has begun to wonder whether Ningde era can break through trillion yuan in one fell swoop. Stocks that buy liquor also enjoy the valuation of “science and technology”. After going through the bull market every day, Maotai, which is worth 2.4 trillion yuan, is the “first brother” of a shares, and “Baijiu +” has become the main rising combination every day. Those who do not buy liquor can only sigh that “liquor does not talk about stock morality, but the tail juice of fund managers”. Even the most cattle fund manager of Xingquan, Xie Zhiyu, regretted that he had made mistakes in the liquor industry and lacked the understanding of the toughness of the industry The convergence of assets in the magic 2020 can be described as the more extreme evolution. RMB is on! Trillions of foreign investors “buying China” RMB can be said to be the “most beautiful baby” in the field of sovereign currency this year. According to the data, the US dollar peaked at the peak of the epidemic in March, and has since fallen. The dollar index has fallen from its low in September to its lowest level since 2018. The catalyst for the decline came from the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates to 0-0.25%, depriving us bond yields of a long-standing advantage over Europe and Japan. On the other hand, the appreciation of RMB started in June. The dollar rose from 7.18 to 6.52, an increase of about 6%. Behind the appreciation, on the one hand, China’s epidemic situation was under the best control and the fastest economic recovery was achieved; on the other hand, it was the passive appreciation caused by the sharp fall of the US dollar. This year, many occasions will hear experts say “buy China” from time to time. This is not just talking about it. In November, China issued its first negative interest rate sovereign bond, which was robbed by Europeans! According to the financial times, this year foreign investors “bet on China” and spend trillions. Among them, in the first 11 months of 2020, the amount of Chinese government bonds held by foreign investors increased by more than 900 billion yuan, while the net purchase of Chinese stocks through Shanghai / Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect was as high as 170 billion yuan. Some experts have calculated such a set of data. For example, an investor borrows money from the U.S. credit market at a cost of nearly zero interest rate, and then resells to buy China’s treasury bonds, the risk-free spread is as high as 3%. If the timing of the purchase is appropriate and the appreciation of RMB is added, the total yield can reach 10% +. Under the background of global low interest rate and asset shortage, 10% is a very considerable income for large funds. And if they’re buying yuan related assets such as the hot stocks mentioned above, this year’s earnings are just as good. In terms of major indexes, the growth enterprise market rose by 44% in the year, while the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 33%, while the Shanghai composite index was slightly weaker, at 10%. 2021 commodity bull market? 2020 is coming to an end. What should we buy in 2021? From a macro point of view, after the release of water, the marginal convergence of monetary policy has become a consensus. The stock market valuation is on the high side, and the uncertainty of the bond market remains. At present, the trend of commodities in the next year may be the most anticipated. It can be seen that commodities have started a wave of “surfing” ahead of time at the end of the year. China Merchants Securities shouts out that the next is the nine-year bull market of commodities. Driven by the Fed’s unlimited quantitative easing, the US dollar will enter a nearly nine-year weak cycle. Historically, there is a “seesaw” effect between the US dollar and commodity prices, indicating that the high point of commodity prices may rise step by step. The voice on the other side was also loud and clear. According to Goldman Sachs, the ratio of the S & P Goldman Sachs commodity index to the S & P 500 index has been lower than ever since 1972. “We may be about to enter a new commodity bull market, which may be comparable to the boom driven by Chinese demand in the first decade of this century, and the surge in oil prices in the 1970s.” Commodities are expected to “benefit from the global re inflation theme,” Goldman said. The turning point of the cycle may come again

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