Bitcoin’s “breaking five” market: no chance for ordinary investors to reach $50000 higher?

Our reporter Zheng Yu and Zhang Rongwang reported in Beijing on February 16, the fifth day of the first month in China. The price of bitcoin, which failed to hit $50000 for several days, rose by $50000 and then fell back. As of the press release of China business daily, the price was about $49110.76/piece. A blogger on twitter jokingly said that it would replace the money market of Bretton Woods system, known as Maotai BTC (bitcoin) system: in December 2013, Maotai was exchanged for 1.5 bitcoins; in December 2020, Maotai was exchanged for 1.5 bitcoins. At present, 1.5 bitcoins are close to 500000 yuan, and 100 shares of Maotai are about 260000 yuan. The hot bitcoin market is closely related to the successive statements of traditional financial institutions and multinational giants in recent days. For example, according to a report recently disclosed by Tesla at the securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Tesla has invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin, and it is expected to invest and hold cryptocurrency assets in the long term. Liu Feng, director of the blockchain technology and Application Research Center of Shanghai University of international business and economics, told reporters that institutions buying in groups brought strong confidence to the market, directly driving the market value of cryptocurrency led by bitcoin to continue to rise. Although the currency price has been back several times, but the bull market atmosphere is still the same. At the same time, Liu Feng pointed out that the situation of individual farmers will be more prominent when professional institutions enter the site and harvest leek with information gap. “Ordinary investors have to raise their cognitive level.” Strong “out of the circle” retail investors decline? Out of circle is a popular word on the Internet, which means that the popularity of an event is not only spread in the fixed fan circle, but also known by more people outside the circle. This round of bitcoin can be described by the word “out of the circle”. In the past, bitcoin was more popular among a small group of people who believed in cryptocurrency. However, the current situation has changed dramatically, and more and more traditional institutions and industrial giants have entered the game. Recently, Daniel Pinto, CO president of JPMorgan Chase, a major U.S. investment bank, said that whether JPMorgan decided to launch bitcoin service or not would depend on customers’ demand for bitcoin transactions. Although the current demand is not strong enough, he also said: “over time, if we develop an asset class that will be used by different asset management companies and investors, we will have to participate. The demand has not yet been met, but I believe it will be achieved at some time.” According to foreign media reports, counter point global of Morgan Stanley is studying whether bitcoin is suitable for its investors. The Bank of New York Mellon also announced recently that it will act as an agent for clients in custody and transfer of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The bank has discussed with its customers the way to “enter” cryptocurrency. Bitcoin’s boom in recent days starts with a series of actions by Elon Musk. At the end of January 2021, musk suddenly changed the profile of Twitter to “bitcoin”, which instantly ignited the market. Bitcoin stood at 36000 US dollars on the same day, with an increase of more than 7%. On February 4, musk repeatedly mentioned virtual currency. In a Feb. 8 filing with the securities and Exchange Commission, Tesla said it had bought $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin. On February 10, MasterCard, a global payment company, announced on its website that it was preparing for cryptocurrency as a payment method. On February 12, Canada’s main securities regulator approved the world’s first bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). The Ontario Securities Commission approved the target investment company to launch its bitcoin ETF on the Toronto Stock Exchange. In an interview with Agence France Presse, a spokesman for the company said that trading would begin with BTCC as the stock symbol “as early as next week”. Relevant people from the ojex Research Institute told reporters that the direct cause of this round of bitcoin bull market comes from the entrance of high net worth and institutional investors like Tesla: since the second half of 2020, institutions such as American insurance giant Wantong life insurance company and business analysis company MicroStrategy have bought bitcoin one after another; Online payment giant PayPal, the largest business in Singapore, has bought bitcoin DBS also announced that it would launch cryptocurrency payment service. More than $6.9 billion of bitcoin is currently held by listed companies, according to bitcoin treasuies. This has led to the prosperity of bitcoin market. Liu Feng said that bitcoin’s breakthrough of the historical high of US $50000 can be seen from three aspects: macro level, operational side and market trading psychology. From a macro point of view, the global epidemic situation is not stopped. Basically speaking, a large part of the water released from the French currency world has been injected into the cryptocurrency trading market, supporting the high market value of this round. From the operational level, institutions buy in groups, and large commercial institutions are gradually participating in the cryptocurrency market, which brings strong confidence to the market. Also directly led to the market trading psychological fanaticism. Although the currency price has been corrected several times, the bull market atmosphere in the market is still stable, which undoubtedly drives the market value of cryptocurrency led by bitcoin to continue to rise. The danger behind the opportunity of “leek” change is also worthy of attention. As of February 16, when it was published, coin, a consulting tool for cryptocurrency, had sold out in nearly 30 days, reaching 17.5 billion US dollars. Unlike before, some senior players in the coin circle have been cleared out. This bull market has attracted more new players, some from the traditional stock market, some from mining practitioners stationed in the upstream industry of bitcoin Liu Shen (pseudonym), an investor in the stock market of the post-80s generation, said that it was his first contact with the currency circle in the first half of 2020. In his opinion, even when the stock market is in a downturn, he can make a considerable profit and have more opportunities to make money. He told reporters that he didn’t pay attention to bitcoin at first, until the post-85s and post-90s were making a lot of money in the currency circle. “Seeing them holding tens of thousands of yuan of principal, it has increased hundreds of times in just a few years.” But then Liu Shen fell into a dispute with the virtual currency trading platform, such as pulling out the Internet line (malicious exposure), and lost more than one million yuan. “High returns are accompanied by high-risk niche industries, which are lack of regulation and easy to manipulate.” This is Liu Shen’s evaluation of the currency circle. The ojex Research Institute stressed that investors should be aware that bitcoin is a high-risk asset rather than a safe haven asset. Moreover, as a special asset class, bitcoin will not generate any predictable cash flow, and the only way for investors to get their returns is the rise of bitcoin price, so it is easier to form speculative bubbles. “Therefore, when investing in bitcoin, we should have a correct understanding of the investment orientation of bitcoin. For novice investors, they can try to invest a little bit of bitcoin to promote their understanding of bitcoin; however, if they want to realize the so-called freedom of wealth by investing in bitcoin, this is not realistic. At the same time, investors are not recommended to increase leverage to speculate in currency. The price of bitcoin fluctuates greatly. In market research, some investors who add 10 times, 20 times or even 100 times leverage to fry currency are often found, which brings huge investment risks. ” “Ready to pull the plate, speed up the train”, “will definitely rise after the festival”, “even if there are regulatory measures, the impact will only be short-lived” All kinds of bitcoin are buzzing for good news. It is worth noting that on February 3, ridalio, founder of bridge water fund, argued in an article written by him that governments of various countries would not allow bitcoin and gold as two major assets, which are more attractive for circulation than their own currencies. Each government hopes to strengthen the power control of currency issuing banks. The more successful bitcoin is, the more likely it is to be banned by governments. Dalio also said that bitcoin is an amazing invention and seems to be a long-term option full of uncertainties in the future, “so the amount of money I invest in bitcoin will be limited to the range that I won’t mind losing even 80% of it.”. A staff member of the currency circle trading platform told the reporter that his daily work was mainly to open multiple wechat accounts, and then create the illusion of chatting among multiple accounts, pretending to talk about some illusory good news and “internal” remarks, and then distributed them to the 100 person coin circle chat groups to drive the price of virtual currency issued by himself. The reporter learned that in the bull market of currency circle, the monthly salary of such “operation” work can reach 40000 to 50000 yuan. (Editor: he Shasha, proofread by Zhai Jun)

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