Delphy White Paper Interpretation: Predict how the market ensures accuracy and break the monopoly of experts


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Reporter: pencil leadn

Predict the market, also known as the “information market”, “view market” and “event market”, through the participants of the transaction-specific event probability of the contract, the formation of a market expected to predict the future.n
nRecently, the first domestic chain-based forecast market Delphy released its own white paper, designed to build China’s Augur, Gnosis (both of which are the Star Square block on the star application, ranked the forefront of the market value of encrypted money) This is a ripple.n
nThen Delphy predicts how the market is to ensure accuracy, what is the principle, and big data, data mining tools compared to what kind of advantage, with these questions Xiaobian interview with Delphy forecasting market founder Mr. Wang Bo.n
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nBlock Chain Pencil: How is the accuracy of the market forecast?n
nWang Bo: Predict the market is a typical “socialization” analysis scheme that uses the wisdom of the masses to predict the probability of occurrence. In Delphy’s prediction of the market, the contract price of the transaction is the probability of future events, reflecting the participants’ dynamic expectations of the probability of occurrence of the event.n
nFor example, the 2018 World Cup Germany can win the defending champion contract initial price is 1 yuan, through the transaction, the current contract price of 0.6 yuan, which means that the market participants believe that the German team defending the probability is 60%, corresponding Germany, the German team failed to win the contract price is 0.4 yuan, the corresponding probability is 40%. If the last German team to win, then the winner of the corresponding profit (1-0.6) yuan.n
nIn the price of the game, the market will gradually form a consensus, the participants are willing to win the victory will be based on their own understanding of the situation and experience to make judgments, that the German team will defend the participants can buy Yes contract, and do not agree Of the participants can buy No contracts, which means that the market brings together all the wisdom of the participants.n
nOf course, this requires participants to vote based on valuable information. Ye Jiaxing, an associate professor of finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said that the key to the success of the market mechanism is that participants use free time to invest in information. If each person allocates a little free time, accumulating a powerful shared resource, providing a drop point for future events, the probability of prediction, can form a strong predictive power.n
nIt is precisely because of the existence of this mechanism, predict the performance of the market in practice is often amazing.n
nConsensus Point, the chief scientist’s website, predicted by Robin Hanson, the father of the predicted market, has published a forecast of 92% of the market’s accuracy.n
nIn 2008, a survey found that the IEM of the University of Iowa predicted five presidential elections in 74% of the cases than the ordinary polls to be accurate. The election data in the figure below clearly show that the accuracy of the results of the forecast market is quite high.n
nHollywood movie box office forecast market: its classic case of God’s prediction is at the 2007 Oscar awards ceremony, when the Oscar a total of 39 nominations, the Hollywood Stock Exchange through the transaction price ranking, successfully predicted the 32 nominations, and in the Before the ceremony, seven of the eight awards were successfully predicted, and the accuracy was high.n
nPractice has shown that the accuracy of the forecast market is often higher than the traditional forecasting tools, and with continuous real-time information gathering, active participation, information disclosure, high efficiency and measurability and other advantages.n
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nBlock Chain Pencil: What are the advantages of Delphy’s forecasting market compared to the experts?n
nWang Bo: ancient Chinese proverb: “three stinkers, the top of a Zhuge Liang”, the wisdom of the masses is often more than the individual to be more trustworthy, our goal is to break the monopoly of experts.n
nFirst, the events that need to be predicted are often very complex. Such as the film box office forecast, will affect the film’s own influence, the taste of the fans, the performance of other films in the current period, and even large economic environment and so on factors. Faced with so many variables, very few people will have complete information, and as a group often have a large amount of massive information, the obvious advantages.n
nSecond, the forecast market is equivalent to providing a platform for those who have special information about the market. If there are different opinions, people will vote in the way they want to buy, rather than simply succumb to the subjective or obedient.n
nFinally, unlike the general market research, it is predicted that the market is a real value token (Token) of the transaction, people will take a cautious way of thinking to vote.n
nOf course, the longer the market is expected to run, the more participants will be more accurate.n
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nBlock Chain Pencil: Forecast Market vs Large Data / Machine Learning Forecast?n
nWang Bo: I think the predictions of the market and the forecasting of large data machine learning are two different ways, the former is the use of group wisdom, through the participants through the transaction specific event occurrence possibility of the contract, forming a market expected to predict the future. The latter refers to the massive data through the cleaning and digging, analysis and induction to find out the existence of a variable between the rules, the model to predict the model.n
nCompared to the two, the market has the following advantages:n
nnFirst, low cost Large data analysis is based on massive data, resulting in costly, high threshold. In contrast, the market through the incentive mechanism to collect market information, only a fair and equitable electronic market can be, low cost.n
nnnSecond, closer to reality. Realistic events are very complex factors, large data analysis model is difficult to accurately simulate any social phenomenon, is likely to miss some important factors in the model. In contrast, the forecast market is given by the group directly to the forecast, a direct collection of people for a variety of real factors to judge.n
nnnThird, better timeliness. The massive data sources of large data are based on historical data, and human behavior may change over time, and the results from previous data analysis do not necessarily apply to future decisions. In contrast, the market is expected to collect information from people in real time through incentives.n
nnnFourth, break the prediction monopoly. Large data analysis of the high threshold to make it a big company to safeguard the hegemony of the weapon, the general public can not participate and use, predict the arrival of the market will predict democratization.n
nnAs for the accuracy of the forecast market and large data projections, a set of data is available for your reference.n
nAccording to statistics, in the 1988-1994 US presidential election forecast, based on group wisdom Iowa electronic forecast market to 0.3% percentage points leading the United States famous Gallup survey. Although the leading range is not large, but to know that the Gallup survey is one of the world’s most expensive survey, costly, complex operation, compared to the market only need an electronic market to operate, affordable a lot of. (Wolfers and Zitzewitz, 2006, PREDICTION MARKETS IN THEORY AND PRACTICE).n
nHope everyone together, in the block chain era, and Delphy together to foresee the future.n
nWelcome to the Delpy Forecast Market Project, which will begin ICO in mid-Augustn
nWe can add Delphy Group (micro signal: delphy_org), apply to join the official group of Delphy, received the latest project information.n

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