Disclaimer: This article is intended to convey more market information and does not constitute any investment advice. The article only represents the author’s point of view, not the official position of Mars finance and economics. Editor: remember to pay attention to source: panews original title: “the strategy of investment institutions is coming: except bitcoin, these six directions are generally optimistic.” people have been trying to make various predictions all the time. There are prophets and diviners who use tarot cards, crystal balls and other special objects to predict things that have not yet happened. Later, science fiction writers use words and extremely strange imagination to let human beings perceive the real future in advance. In the changing market conditions, the investment institutions that have insight into the opportunities are undoubtedly “forecasters”. They gamble on the future earnings and look for the next round of technology leaders and dark horse products. With the 2020 progress bar full, how do the “forecasters” who are active in the encryption market view the ups and downs of the past year? How to step on the market rhythm and grasp the investment opportunities? What is the reference value of their prediction of 2021 for investors? Panews interviewed eight investment institutions for their insights. In the magic year of double ice and fire, bitcoin ushers in the certification of big institutions, “the world is changeable.” Looking back on the exciting and magical year 2020, Tao Rongqi, founder of X-order, and Huang Lingbo, partner of distributed capital, told panews at the same time. This year, we have witnessed the great changes in the world and the changes in the capital market. In the first half of the year, oil prices plummeted to negative numbers, US stocks were blown out several times, and the currency market fell in a panic style. In the second half of the year, the global financial market “Jedi rebound” ushered in a carnival style surge, in which bitcoin, which has repeatedly reached new highs, is far ahead of other assets. “This rapid recovery and record highs is both a surprise and a surprise. What’s surprising is that the cryptocurrency market continues to attract external incremental funds, gaining more favor from institutional investors. Bitcoin has become a new global safe haven asset class. What is expected is the performance of the cryptocurrency market. With the halving of bitcoin, the outbreak of defi (decentralized Finance), and the changes in the global macroeconomic environment, it is bound to climb a higher mountain in the near future. ” Ivy, investment manager of Qianfeng capital, said. As ivy said, this round of gains benefited from the massive expansion of listed companies and traditional financial institutions into the bitcoin market. From query to wait-and-see, and then to admission, the attitude of mainstream institutions towards encryption assets has changed greatly. Du Jun, the founding partner of node capital, explained that it is not easy for institutional investors to gradually become market leading forces. This change is mainly due to the great progress made in the standardization of crypto assets. For example, Wall Street institutions including fidelity and JPMorgan Chase have opened the crypto asset trust service. The anti inflation characteristics of bitcoin and other crypto assets have been recognized and accepted by institutions. The demand for encryption by institutional investors is increasing. Yu Zongmin, investment director of hashkey capital, also predicts that bitcoin is expected to become a commodity of the same level as gold and crude oil as the encryption industry gradually enters the mainstream financial circle. The entry of traditional institutions not only brings about soaring prices, but also provides more perfect and convenient solutions for more users in terms of purchase, use, storage and compliance. The reason is that the user threshold and cognitive threshold of cryptocurrency were relatively high in the past, but with more financial institutions providing cryptocurrency investment tools (such as mutual funds and ETFs) in a way familiar to investors, and paypal and other platforms continue to improve the entrance of cryptocurrency. Based on their existing customer base, these institutions can bring bitcoin to a wide range of mainstream people. As bitcoin gradually becomes an effective hedging tool against macroeconomic trends, Ethereum is grafted with more financial innovation and application creation. Wang Xiaochen, founder of Taihe capital, believes that more and more institutional investors will invest their funds into the asset, which will be concerned and adopted by the mainstream financial world. In addition to traditional institutional forces, Huang noted that community power is also one of the reasons for the rapid growth of the encryption market. For example, the fire in defi benefited from the rise of mobile mining, which is inseparable from community forces; the fire in Boka is also inseparable from a large number of technical community personnel actively engaged in various ecological projects. After high-speed growth, are these hot spots worthy of attention? Encryption market “out of the circle” can not do without all kinds of new play, constantly expand the application boundary. In the second half of 2020, the hot spots such as defi, filecoin, NFT (non homogeneous token), ETH 2.0 and Boca are overwhelming. A round of crazy investment boom has been set off in the market. Defidefi is undoubtedly the loudest chapter of 2020. Among many defi projects, uniswap, which perfectly realizes decentralized trading with extremely simple underlying logic, is really a surprise to Wang Xiaochen. It directly drives the ecological development and prosperity of AMM type DEX. In Wang Xiaochen’s view, DEX (decentralized exchange) will eventually replace CEX (centralized exchange). The reason lies in the fact that there is no access threshold (no license), no counterparties, direct trading with pool, completion of all transaction chains, and transparency and justice. At the same time, the afave flash loan of the defi loan project reconstructs the logic of borrowing. There is no way to realize the logic of borrowing on the chain in the real financial world, “if you can repay the money, you will borrow”. The tools on the chain give people new ideas and solutions. Cai Yan, the managing director of NGC ventures, is very optimistic about the DFI projects such as AAVE, yfi, uniswap and synthetix. He believes that these head projects have become the cornerstone of the industry and set up a framework for the development of the industry. However, according to Lin Weihao, founder of axia8 ventures, after six months of simple and crude mining with high annualized yield ratio (apy), the mode of relying solely on apy subsidies will not last long. Therefore, there are many innovative and complex attempts in the market, such as base LP Token’s mortgage lending, on chain insurance, decentralized derivatives, asset management, intelligent investment adviser, NFT and the combination of defi protocol, etc. After a round of elimination and iteration, I believe there will be more incremental market entry next year. At present, more challenges are faced by the security problems in each module of the protocol, and the expansion of the defi protocol on the technical level requires the implementation of relevant roll up solutions such as layer 2. In addition, Ivy believes that there are still some problems in the defi market, such as the lack of user education and AMM variable loss. However, with the start-up of eth 2.0 Phase1, there is no doubt that it is ready for the performance improvement of defi in the future. In view of these industry pain points, there will be more innovation projects in defi. Du Jun holds the same view on this. He points out that the bottleneck of the current defi lies in the low throughput performance of the underlying chain. At the same time, there are many security challenges in defi. Hacker attacks caused by various smart contract vulnerabilities are common. Only by upgrading the infrastructure generation by generation will the application boundary of defi be further expanded next year and enter the era of defi 2.0. Before the safety problem has been effectively solved, Tao Rongqi thinks that if the difi wants to further develop, it can not do without supervision, and only by crossing the threshold of supervision can difi go to the mainstream market. When all kinds of problems are solved, with the completion of the financial reconstruction and deconstruction by defi, Huang Lingbo predicts that DFI will modularize more financial functions, and the combination of these modular agreements will form a new financial model. In addition, defi is still mainly a single ecological combination. Next year, it may appear a combination of cross ecological contract calls based on cross chain technology. Filecoin filecoin is the most expensive ICO project in history and one of the most controversial projects. In 2017, filecoin completed $257 million of ICO (initial token issue), setting a record in the circle. In October this year, its main network plan was finally launched after twists and turns. “The overall technical implementation of filecoin is complex, which affects the time of project launch.” Dujun explained. Nevertheless, in the past few years, filecoin has gained a high degree of promotion and exposure. This year, there was even a crazy “gold rush”. As for the high popularity of this star project, Ivy explained that as the incentive layer of IPFs, filecoin can provide low-cost storage space, and the storage mining system and economic model have gradually stabilized. At present, many projects are ready to use filecoin as distributed storage to provide storage space on the chain. At the same time, traditional industries can also achieve rapid integration. At the same time, Huang Lingbo also revealed that two months after the launch of filecoin’s main network, although the overall mining system still has the problem of high gas fees, the overall mining system has begun to stabilize. In 2021, the government will pay more attention to the development of the overall ecological project. However, Ivy believes that the development of cloud storage sector itself needs more infrastructure, such as privacy protection, data screening, etc., to contribute to IPFs. Du Jun also pointed out that there are some problems in filecoin, such as complex technical model, low success rate of mining, gas cost and so on. In the future, it may be necessary to adjust parameters to improve the mining environment of miners’ network. In addition, it is how to find suitable landing scene application. Boca poca is recognized as the most anticipated project in the industry. In addition to the founder Gavin wood, the former technical director of Ethereum, the advancement of Boca’s technical framework and the importance of governance module have aroused heated discussions in the industry. Dujun believes that Boca is a very important infrastructure of blockchain, which has a very far-reaching significance for the medium and long-term development of the industry in the future. At present, Boca is the leader of cross chain track and a strong competitor of Ethereum ecology. The next stage of Boca is the start of parallel chain, which is expected to support about 100 parallel chains. “In 2021, Boca will be an explosive outlet for next year. At present, the underlying infrastructure structure in Boca ecology is constantly improving, and the technology developer community is also very active. With the recent launch of Rococo V1 parallel chain test network, Boca track is entering the actual application landing stage, which means that the value discovery bonus period of Boca ecology will break out next year. ” Lin Weihao pointed out. Huang Lingbo revealed that “according to the data statistics, the number of developers in Boca ranks first among the major blockchain projects. With more developers, Boca’s parallel line test network has been launched, and Boca’s development will reach a higher level next year. ” However, Du Jun believes that Boca belongs to the combination of heterogeneous blockchains, and there are multiple blockchains, and the cross chain interaction and other functions to be realized by poca have certain complexity. In addition, Boca has no first mover advantage over Ethereum in terms of ecology. Ivy also pointed out that due to the technical difficulty of poca itself, slot auction has not been put on the agenda, and the secondary market has been tossing and turning in anticipation. Although its theoretical performance has been greatly improved, its ecological development is still relatively weak. Many old projects that have not had big waves in the past have also changed their faces and are ready to share a wave of dividends on Boca, but in fact, the usability and user base are greatly reduced. Therefore, Boca still needs to work hard to find and incubate high-quality projects. Only when there are many projects with availability can we realize the circulation and intercommunication on each chain, and the barriers of interoperability can be truly broken. The official launch of eth 2.0 eth 2.0 is considered to be a leap to promote the adoption of large-scale application of Ethereum. “Eth 2.0 does not blindly pursue the improvement of TPS, but develops practicability and feasibility to a greater extent under the premise of ensuring safety. Ethereum will be the underlying infrastructure of the blockchain ecological network for a long time to come. ” Ivy thinks. For eth 2.0, it will help the further development of defi. Du Jun believes that eth 2.0 plays an important role in promoting the development of Ethereum difi. Ivy pointed out that there will be more investment opportunities for difi under the support of eth 2.0. For example, the derivatives market, which includes perpetual contracts, options futures, synthetic assets, etc., can meet the financial needs of different users and obtain more financial attributes than the original assets. Although eth 2.0 needs to be launched in phases in the next few years, layer 2 solutions are expected to provide the scalability that the industry needs before and after, and become an important part of the blockchain scalability solution. Cai Yan is very optimistic about layer 2 related projects. She explained that at this stage, the ecology of Ethereum is relatively rich, and the lock up fund of defi has reached the level of 10 billion US dollars, but the related infrastructure is not able to keep pace with it. Therefore, more developers will be committed to solving these problems. Lin Weihao further pointed out that layer 2 technology is gradually improving. These two-tier solutions, such as optimal, ZK rollup and validum, can greatly improve the speed of capacity expansion. For example, the underlying infrastructure architecture of profi will continue to improve, which makes it a long-term trend. The siphon effect of mainstream currency and other track mainstream digital assets. “As institutions embrace deflationary value reserve assets such as BTC, ETH, LTC and BCH. At this stage, the market has been divided. Institutional funds mainly flow into the assets mentioned above. The rising range of these assets has widened the gap with other assets. The wealth effect will attract more incremental capital into these assets and further expand the rising space of these assets. The Matthew effect of mainstream assets will become more obvious. ” Dujun told panews. Ivy further pointed out that the encryption market has undergone a qualitative change at the time of bull bear transformation. When some projects that cannot keep up with the market development have already stopped before the bull market comes, Ethereum, chainlink, synthetix and other projects experiencing bear market precipitation can flexibly adapt to the market demand and become the leaders in the subdivision field. Meanwhile, Ivy believes that private computing, cloud storage and other sectors have certain investment opportunities. Boca Web 3.0 foundation has bridged many projects of private computing, cloud storage and data market, with the intention of improving the utilization rate of data while protecting privacy. At the same time, it is combined with big data and human intelligence, which has a very broad application scenario. Huang Lingbo is also optimistic about the incremental market. On the one hand, capital increment, including institutional funds or overseas personal funds, has begun to become more smooth; on the other hand, asset increment will lead to diversification of asset categories next year. For example, the original assets are mainly digital currency, and the main function is speculative property, which is relatively simple. However, with more and more projects starting to focus on the traditional Assets on the chain, including real estate, accounts receivable, etc. At the same time, the original assets are also becoming more and more diversified, such as the emergence and combination of NFT and bond. In addition, Wang Xiaochen is very optimistic about the recently launched “the graph”. He pointed out that the graph provides a data interface tool and platform, and everyone can provide their own data presentation, so that people can have a deeper understanding of the decentralized underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications. In addition to the above hot investment areas, Yu believes that institutional services and compliance track may become the next potential stocks. In the past 10 years, the retail market has driven the development of encryption market, and a large number of wealth effects have spawned traffic and consensus. Some star projects are mainly service to C market, but in the next 5-10 years, if you want to push the blockchain or encryption market to the next level, you must have the participation of institutions. Therefore, some subdivision tracks around the institutions, such as trusteeship, prime brokers, and cash in and out of French currency, are also unavoidable topics. What changes have been made to the investment strategy of the institution due to the changeable market situation? In the face of the changeable market, making the best plan for the possibility of more market trends tests the “internal strength” of investment institutions. With their keen tentacles and forward-looking vision, investors have already grasped the investment opportunities. “In the first half of this year, distributed capital is more inclined to explore core mode innovative projects, including incentive mechanism, token mechanism, and teams with strong technical ability, such as chainsafe. With the gradual improvement of the market of defi, Boca and filecoin, we began to pay more attention to ecological projects, such as keep, debank, etc. With the opening of the incremental market in the second half of the year, the legal path, wallet, asset management and traditional asset chain of incremental markets have also become the focus of attention, such as the safety chain of enterprises. ” Huang Lingbo revealed. Yu Zongmin told panews that the company will compare the birth and development path of blockchain and Internet, and similar business innovation, technological innovation and social change will also take place in the blockchain industry. In the face of industries with such great potential, what hashkey capital needs to do is to seize beta (the strategy of passive tracking index), invest in high-quality projects in all fields of the industry, and obtain the dividend of the times and industry development. The investment focus of axia8 ventures lies in the early layout of blockchain native assets and application classes to the central financial circuit. Lin Weihao explained that since 2017, with the continuous improvement of the underlying infrastructure of defi, various applications such as compound, uniswap and makerdao will emerge after the infrastructure of stable token is built and improved. At the same time, the flexibility of defi products can bring many different possibilities to the trading ecology of the blockchain, and import the demand of traditional finance. “Our investment idea is that some positions hold bitcoin, Ethereum and poca for a long time, while others will invest in early projects in the primary market, and will also explore some undervalued projects in the secondary market. For funds, risk control tends to make cyclical adjustments. If it is judged that it is a bull market, it will increase the investment in high-risk assets, and if it is judged as a bear market, there will be some French currency in hand. In fact, as long as you can live through the bear market, there will always be good returns in the bull market. ” Cai Yan disclosed. From Ivy’s point of view, unlike in the past, the market fundamentals have changed a lot this year. On the basis of the consensus of bull market, it is difficult to establish the logic of capturing 100 times and 1000 times of currency in the previous overseas investment projects. Therefore, Qianfeng capital has expanded the depth and breadth of market research. It needs not only the research on the subject segmentation of the plate, but also the refined investment analysis in the vertical field. In the selection of targets, Qianfeng capital’s investment research system selects high-quality investment targets, and projects that do not conform to the investment logic will not participate. At present, as an indispensable part of risk control, Qianfeng capital also has a set of perfect risk control process. How to master the winning posture of investment? To listen to professionals “advice” in recent months of the encryption market Carnival feast, it can be said that a few happy, a few worried. Some people have made a lot of money just by “airdrop”, while others have lost money in all kinds of operation of chasing up the price and killing the down. In particular, with the accelerated institutionalization of bitcoin market, it will be more difficult for ordinary investors to seize certain investment opportunities. “There are currently three types of institutions entering the crypto Market: short-term Wall Street speculators, institutional investors such as GBTC holders and institutional allocators. Although with more and more configured institutions coming in, bitcoin will become more and more institutionalized in the future, and the price rise is unimaginable. However, ordinary investors still take the spot and do less band work. Because according to historical data, 95% of the rise in bitcoin was completed in 5% of trading days. ” Cai Yan pointed out. Ivy pointed out that at present, we are in a bull market, and the bull market is often the largest loss of retail investors. The main reasons for the loss are chasing up the price and killing down the price and lack of risk management of trading. Therefore, Ivy suggests that investors can choose specialized investment institutions for fund management, or index fixed investment is also a good choice. At the same time, retail investors should also pay close attention to their own risk exposure, and should not excessively pursue returns and ignore risks. “The development of the industry has got rid of the myth stage of the earliest wild growth of brainless sudden wealth. Information gap is a huge arbitrage opportunity. But if you want to make a lot of money in this industry, you must keep on learning. The income ceiling of investment comes from your own cognitive boundary. The money you can earn must be within the scope of your cognition, otherwise it will be sooner or later that the profits and losses are the same.” Lin Weihao said. “Encryption market is an index growth and index decline market, ordinary investors should do a good job in psychological construction.” Tao Rongqi stressed. At the same time, Huang Lingbo pointed out that “investors can select better projects from two directions: one is the track and the other is the team. We usually do in-depth industry research and communicate with the overall project of the track, so as to choose the team that understands the track better and is more suitable for the track.” For individual investors who want to participate in cryptocurrency transactions, Du Jun gives several suggestions. First, idle money should be invested, and the amount of capital should be no more than 20% of the total personal assets; secondly, don’t buy some air assets with no consensus for profiteering, and don’t touch leverage; finally, for ordinary users who don’t have much research ability on the fundamentals of digital currency, they should invest their funds Bitcoin and Ethereum are two kinds of digital assets.