Interview with Delphy founder Wang Bo: block chain and the market can predict what kind of spark


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Reporter: pencil leadn

As the first regional chain forecast market, Delphy has been widely concerned since its release, its sponsor is the former co-founder Wang Bo, investors, including distributed capital such as professional investment institutions.n
nHowever, whether it is to predict the market or the chain of blocks, I believe that for most people is a new concept, then the combination of these two cutting-edge ideas and technology in the end can hit what kind of spark, today we Delphy founder Wang Bo conducted an exclusive interview.n
nQ: How to simply understand the forecast market, what is the principle?n
nnWang Bo: In fact, the market is predicted to vote in the way to predict the future, where you vote on behalf of your attitude on this attitude, how much you vote on behalf of your confidence in the occurrence of this result. In essence, the predictive market can help transform the knowledge and experience of the public into wisdom.n
nIf scientific terms are explained, the forecast market is based on market principles to collect the confidence and judgment of the parties involved in the same transaction, resulting in a prediction of the future outcome of the event. We can compare the forecast market with the stock market, which is pricing the expected future earnings of the stock, which is pricing the expected results for future events.n
nPredict the market is not just a simple vote so simple, behind it has a profound economic theory. In general, there are two theoretical support to predict the operation of the market. One is the Efficient Capital Markets Hypothesis (ECMH) and the other is the Hayek Hypothesis.n
nThese assumptions explain the integration of information through the collection, the market price can accurately reflect the probability of occurrence of future results. According to ECMH, the capital market is the most effective and real-time way to reflect the information of individual stocks and the entire stock market, while Hayeke assumes that market prices are an effective means of collecting discrete information, even if people are on their own environment and counterparty The knowledge is limited and the market is still valid.n
nnQ: What are the ways to predict the market, compared to other ways to predict the market?n
nnWang Bo: There are two main methods of scientific prediction, one is the use of statistical and mathematical models to predict, the other is the use of machine learning and data mining to predict. In essence, are to occupy more information, resources.n
nCompared to the other two forecasting methods, the forecasting market can be said to have three major advantages: first, it can efficiently collect diverse and scattered information; secondly, it provides an effective and transparent incentive mechanism to obtain real and relevant information; At the same time, it provides near-real-time information update mechanisms that make manipulation of the results quite difficult.n
nnQ: What are the current forecasting market, the existing forecast market what kind of pain points, with the block chain to solve these pain points have any advantage?n
nnWang Bo: Although the domestic forecast market is still a blank, but foreign has already done this in-depth exploration and try. For example, HP Labs and the California Institute of Technology co-chaired a three-year forecast of the market experiment, the results of more than 75% of the forecast than Hewlett-Packard’s official forecast to be accurate. For example, the US Department of Defense has published a “policy analysis market” to predict US foreign policy. At the same time, Google has done the corresponding internal forecast market, forecast product release date, the number of Gmail users.n
nWhile there are so many attempts, the centrally predicted market is still facing a lot of problems. First of all, the central platform is facing the biggest problem is not self-evident innocence, the platform is suspected to manipulate the market leaving the user suffered losses. And the block chain data across the board consensus, can not be tampered with each user to participate on an equal footing, common decision-making, exempt from the central organization to manipulate the suspect;n
nSecond, strict financial regulation limits the size of the market and the expansion of the size of the transaction, but the value of the market needs to be diverse and sufficient participation to reflect. The centrality of the structure provides global liquidity for the forecast market, where everyone can make independent decisions, and the predictors are no longer confined to the topic of traditional forecasting market discussions. Global users can ask questions about any questions based on their own interests and prediction. Built-in tokens incentives for the rapid expansion of user groups to provide incentives;n
nIn addition, the center of the server there is the possibility of security risks and operational errors, and based on the block chain forecast market built-in digital currency and smart contracts, to ensure the implementation of automation and financial security, the user in the chain chain platform Every time on the participation are more secure, convenient, low cost.n
nnQ: What is the current foreign sector chain forecast market projects, the development of how?n
nnWang Bo: block chain plus forecast the application of the market in foreign countries have long been a case. At present, there are Augur and Gnosis abroad, the two market capitalization rankings in the top of the encrypted currency. Augur currently has a market capitalization of $ 280 million. Gnosis raised $ 12 million in 5% of the previous coins, with a current market value of $ 360 million.n
nIn fact, Delphy team in 2014 began to study the market forecast, and investment in augur and gnosis and other ICO, we have had two projects on the depth of the study.n
nThe first explorer of this field is Truthcoin, a pioneer in predicting the theory and application of the market, but its products never come out. After Augur appeared on the basis of the building, and successfully achieved ICO, financing more than 500 million dollars, but after more than two years of development, Augur has always stayed at the Demo level. As for Gnosis, we understand that, although its successful implementation of the ICO, but now more than two years to develop, has not been able to launch Demo, to the third quarter of next year will have mobile applications.n
nnQ: What are the unique advantages of Delphy over these predictive market applications?n
nWang Bo: Compared with the predecessors, Delphy has a great advantage, mainly there will be four points:n1) for mobile and born: Delphy platform release, suitable for Delphy iOS

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