The year 2021 has just begun, and great events have emerged to witness history. 01 bitcoin is soaring again!! Since the beginning of new year’s day, bitcoin prices have soared for many consecutive days under people’s gaping attention. At 15:00 Beijing time on January 3, bitcoin’s US dollar quotation once exceeded 34700 US dollars, equivalent to more than 220000 yuan in RMB, and rose by more than 15% within the day. Bitcoin is one of the most concerned topics in the world in 2020. With the controversy of global investors, gambling, blood earning and position explosion, bitcoin has increased by more than three times. Especially after breaking through several previous highs of US $12000 in the middle of November last year, it continuously started the skyrocketing mode, and doubled in three months. While bitcoin has reached a new high, there are also some people who have repeatedly used leverage to reverse short positions. According to the latest data disclosed by the website, a total of 81500 people have speculated in virtual currency positions in the past 24 hours, with 956 million US dollars (about 6.2 billion yuan), of which the amount of short positions due to short bitcoin accounts for 851 million US dollars. When bitcoin was born in 2009, its price was about $0.0025 when it was purchased in 2010. Up to now, the highest price increase of bitcoin has exceeded 13 million times! That is to say, 61.3 bitcoins could be purchased with an investment of 1 yuan at the beginning, which has been appreciated to more than 13 million yuan. According to the total size of 21 million bitcoin, its latest total market value will be as high as 728 billion US dollars, surpassing the market value of TSMC, Alibaba, Tencent and other Internet technology giants. In terms of global asset market value ranking, bitcoin’s total market value ranks eighth. Why does it continue to soar? Many institutions have also given various opinions on the strange rise of bitcoin. On the one hand, it is the nature of global investors to chase up the rise and kill the decline. Bitcoin’s astonishing wealth appreciation effect in the past has attracted more and more funds to enter the market. At the same time, there are many institutions with large-scale bitcoin. As the vested interests, they are more motivated to publish reports to analyze the future growth space of bitcoin, attract more funds to participate, and ultimately lead to the spread of bosha game in a wider range. On the other hand, the macro-economic concerns caused by the impact of the epidemic last year and the resulting global over issuance of goods ratio also have a positive impact on the “scarce asset” of the special currency. Some analysts believe that “the essence of the rise in Maotai, house prices and bitcoin is the same, which is basically caused by currency over issuance. The key point to maintain money belief is “scarcity”. When paper money becomes no longer scarce, money belief is also facing unprecedented challenges. The market will spontaneously look for long-term survival and long-term scarce assets and find new “currency”. In addition, the further expectation of the standardized products is also one of the reasons for the soaring price. Nowadays, more and more licensed investment institutions have set up digital money funds or applied to regulators for trading digital currency and listed companies to allocate bitcoin assets. It is expected that in the next few years, financial regulators in the United States will continue to strengthen the regulatory measures on the trading activities and venues of bitcoin, which will certainly affect the price of bitcoin. According to the Research Report of CICC, the regulatory policies of digital assets are increasingly clear, and the new regulations of Hong Kong and Singapore are expected to promote the rapid development of compliance exchanges. Over the past year, the group of twenty (G20) has led the development of a regulatory framework for the GSC, represented by Libra, to guard against financial risks. This makes the market more and more recognized by the government. In addition, the halving of bitcoin market has also led to further warming of bitcoin speculation. With the growth of the number of bitcoin born, it is more difficult to mine and obtain bitcoin. The bitcoin mining reward will experience “production halving” every once in a while. The third time bitcoin production will be halved on May 12, 2020, and the mining reward will be reduced from 12.5 bitcoin to 6.25 bitcoin. It is estimated that there will be more than 1200 days before the fourth half of production. At that time, the mining reward will be reduced from 6.25 to 3.125, which means that the incremental space of bitcoin is almost exhausted, which will further stimulate the operation sentiment of the market. 03 tulip bubble reappearance? As an asset of global participation, bitcoin has soared tens of millions of times in 10 years, which can be said to be the greatest miracle in human history. This kind of hype is a copy of the “tulip bubble” in France in the mid-16th century. In the mid-16th century, tulip was introduced into Western Europe from Turkey. At the beginning, the nobles in Paris, France, were infatuated with tulip’s beauty and used it as a capital to keep up with each other, which caused people’s enthusiasm for this plant. The price of some rare tulips can be doubled after several rounds of taking over in a few days. The amazing profit-making effect caused more people to rush into the market to participate in speculation, and even led to the futures trading of tulip bulbs. As the newly formed futures market has no clear rules, there are no specific constraints on both parties, which further aggravates the tulip speculation. By the beginning of the 17th century, some treasures were sold at unusual high prices, and even were fried to the point that one flower for a suite. In February 1637, the price of an “eternal Augustus” was as high as 6700 guilders. That’s enough to buy a mansion on the canal in Amsterdam, or 27 tons of cheese. However, due to an accidental event, this crazy speculative bubble was punctured overnight, and the price of rare tulips plummeted in just a few days, and more than 90% of the price was still ignored. Ordinary tulip was cheaper than an onion from the price of a cow before, and countless noble rich merchants were in an irreparable bankruptcy situation. In retrospect, the recent bitcoin hype is the same as that of the tulip bubble in those years. It’s all about the frenzied speculation of an item with uncertain practical value, and the leverage is too much. At present, the speculation of bitcoin does have some underlying logic rationality, but it is undeniable that there is a bubble. However, whether the bubble is reasonable or not can not be explained by the actual data logic. The multi space view of 04 institutions is unprecedented. Bitcoin, which has soared 13 million in 10 years, has refreshed everyone’s cognition and three outlooks. No one can tell how it will perform next. Market analyst David Goldman warned that the recent cryptocurrency boom is showing signs of financial growth. The so-called “financial inflation” refers to that there are more and more bulls in the market, the market sentiment is super optimistic, and the market continues to go up or even accelerate, which eventually leads to the market collapse. Skaramucci, founder of skybridge capital, has a large stake in bitcoin. But even he said investors need to be wary of the currency. In his view, bitcoin is on the verge of collapse. Now is the time to adjust, and the adjustment may be violent, bitcoin may suddenly plummet by 20% to 50%, so investors must be very cautious. However, there are also institutions that continue to clamor for multi bitcoin prices. Some analysts predict that bitcoin may become “Tesla in 2021”, and the future growth space will be as high as several times; some analysts have given ultra-high target prices of US $74000 and US $100000; and the target price given by Citibank is even as high as US $300000. Scott minerd, chief investment officer of Wall Street giant Guggenheim partners, said the current price of bitcoin was far below fair value, and given its scarcity and the Fed’s “frantic printing of money”, its company’s fundamental analysis showed that bitcoin should be worth $400000. However, the Guggenheim macro Opportunity Fund applied to the US SEC to invest in the gray bitcoin trust, or allocate $530 million in bitcoin, and it holds the assets of bitcoin itself. From the perspective of the buttocks determining the head, it is more like an ulterior motive to promote bubbles in order to profit from it. In any case, this speculation, which has been divorced from reality, is undoubtedly a gamble with great risks. Between heaven and hell is often just a moment, overnight rich everyone want, but no one dare to bear the consequences of overnight bankruptcy. Therefore, it is still the classic old saying: market analysis, participation should be cautious. Be careful!