Editor’s note: This article from the block BlockBeats (ID:blockbeats), the rhythm of the original author: Bogdan Gheorghe from: Medium – A Minor Winter, BlockBeats 0x4 compiler: block rhythm, authorized reprint by Odaily daily planet.
In the past year, Fang Ethernet from 1259 billion dollar market is less than tens of billions of dollars, evaporated nearly 8000 billion yuan, in such a situation, to maintain the block chain operation miners still?
The good news is that the miners still only earn the etheric Fang, a lot less; the bad news is that some miners are using some strategies to obtain more profits. In front of the interests of the miners began to change strategy to gain more profits, the number of empty square blocks from the beginning of September the etheric soared 5-7 times, some ore pool with a hollowed block profit as the main way, a year out of 86% block block is an empty block.
“This is the best of times, it was the worst of times,
It was the age of wisdom, it is an age of foolishness,
This is an epoch of belief, it is a period of doubt,
This is a season of light, it was the season of darkness,
This is the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair,
People in front of everything, we had nothing before us. “
Although encryption currency trading market in the past few months digital bear market eased, but people still think that there will be a wave of big decline, investors and the field will have to leave the four rumor, jittery.
But from the data we (the original author) took note of this departure trend is not so serious, mine also find a way to survive in the profits unchanged, namely mining empty block. We through the statistical data analysis of why this behavior is profitable, and confirmed that the main participants who follow this way of practice.
Winter is coming? Mine decide on what path to follow?
We all fall in the price of the etheric Fang concern in the past six months, it is well known that. We decided to look around the scenes, in order to better understand the actual effect in recent months things to mine and mine. Let us deep mine, to find out the real situation in the past few months at the end of the world.
The block number remained stable
From the network the advanced view of the past six months, the number of blocks remained at the same level, the number of transactions per day processing has remained at about 600 thousand.
But this does not mean that the mining activity remained unchanged, the difficulty of adjustment algorithm in the etheric Fang constantly adjust the difficulty, the block time to maintain stability in the range of 10-19 seconds. Therefore, when the number of blocks with the passage of time is calculated, block mining rate always remain stable.
Reduce mining activities
At the same time, decreased difficulty and stress can also reflect the decline in mining activities — but this does not necessarily indicate that reducing the number of miners, but it certainly reflects the decline in the number of mining equipment. Here said the “miners” refers to the mining block in the block on the chain address, rather than referring to it behind the real individual. In most cases, the address pool, which has hundreds of individual registered users to provide their distributed computing power.
It is a measure of complexity need to be solved in the mining block of miners task. Stress refers to the computing ability of the entire network of the sum of the miners. When the mining activity is reduced, the calculated stress will be reduced, and therefore the same difficulty before the problem, the time will increase. The unit is used to measure the difficulty of TH (Tera hash, or trillion attempt solutions). So the network is the sum of force is the sum of all the miners work force, it is measured in the trillions of times per second hashs.
We can see from above, with the stress on the network fluctuation, task difficulty also will change with time, in September and November, there were two big falls, the scatter diagram below also shows a positive correlation between similar.
The scatter difficulty of each block processing and calculation of the figure shows the force between the two of them have significant positive correlation, as we explain in front of the theory. Another interesting finding is that the plot was divided into two clusters, the average divergence difficulty value is about 3200TH. We believe that the results reflect the lag response of miners in the face of network difficulty greatly adjustment, especially in the rising period. We can see from the second picture processing difficulty appeared two steep slopes (September and June), both of which occurred at about 3200TH, and the orange line shows the calculated force and to follow up the adjustment in time, because time delay and lag reaction.
If at any time the average difficulty fell sharply, the miners can timely reflect, stop is in force with sufficient conditions, if the average difficulty of lifting things is not the same, it is difficult to estimate the difficulty of upgrading this wave of miners when is the head, so may be overestimated or underestimated (in September) (in June). This model has more about a possible explanation, there are more assumptions need further studies.
The number of miners (pool) remained stable
The following table shows a different address in the average number of miners recently did not change significantly, which may indicate that the miners are responding to bad encryption conditions in the money market is not a direct exit, but take the reduction strategy. This is a good sign, which may indicate that their confidence in the block chain network did not shake.
This is the expected thing — after all, they are still in the office, still chasing the profit, so in accordance with the original design, when the profit rate is decreasing when mining activities should be decreased. Mining equipment requires a lot of power supply, which increases the cost of the miners.
In addition, as the etheric Fang input-output profit ratio is below a certain threshold, behind consideration should be like this: if I was a miner, every month to pay the amount of $X to dig out 1 Ethernet 1 Ethernet square, if the market price is below the X square, then why should I trouble myself not to dig. Buy directly.
Individual mining (hidden in the pool after the decline in the number)
The other is a good way to reduce the workload of the quantitative calculation to the number of miners, mine is the individual miners pool contribution payments, namely the mineral pools for miners play money. In front of the graph we can see that this number declined clear and smooth.
The following shows according to some indicators is the calculation of stress in the top 5 mine pool, for it in the first half of this year and the second half of the year compared.
(the original is too long, have been cut into sections)
A number of common point of them is what they pay for the account significantly reduced, reducing the most is F2Pool (pond).
Let us now the largest pool of Ethermine mine as an example, according to the above, the number of daily payment is decreasing. We can see the peak in them, because Ethermine to participate in mining address is taken once weekly settlement, which makes the payment number of additional trading day will increase 20%-25%. But even higher values include those days, the average expenditure remained at 0.15-0.16 Ethernet square.
Ore mining block pool is empty?
The number one can highlight mining ecosystem change index is the latest mining empty block increase. Why should the miners intends to adopt this strategy, to introduce several possible explanations and possible.
Mining empty blocks can bring more profits? From the statistical point of view the answer is yes.
From the point of view of the miners, the average total return within a certain period of time the miners are composed of three different parts: block returns (about 89%), the fees paid (about 2%), accidental tertiary reward (about 9%). To calculate the average reward of one of the miners from each block, the best index is block compensation and reward tertiary (including their respective weighted average cost) – each miner reward their tertiary rate (because each miner’s uncle block returns are different, all of this example only the average).
We worked out 3.03 Ethernet Fang this value, as of 2018 years and 12 month 11 days, to the etheric Fang to the dollar to count the income of $275. This is probably one of the miners in each block of income. We also compared the average time of production block, found that for those transactions less blocks, the average production time is shorter for those transactions less than 10 blocks, the average production time is only 9.8 seconds block. Since this year 6 months, the average time was 14.5 seconds all block production.
At the same time, took an average of 11741 empty block during being mined for 13.2 seconds.
In addition, because the relatively short time, security is provided to block air miners. It has a lower likelihood of being certified as a tertiary block, but more likely because of the advantages of time and become a part of the main chain.
Therefore, taking into account the miners profit return, mined out higher than ordinary block block mining efficiency.
Who in the empty mining area?
If we observe carefully, we will notice that 103 miners in the mining of the 11741 empty blocks in the past 6 months.
One of the top five:
F2pool_2 (1st – 0x829bd824b016326a401d083b33d092293333a830),
Etherdig (2nd – 0x8d35067233605bef6069191ae0922d134ff80d48),
Ethermine (3rd – 0xea674fdde714fd979de3edf0f56aa9716b898ec8),
Dwarfpool (4th – 0x2a65aca4d5fc5b5c859090a6c34d164135398226)
Nanopool (5th – 0x52bc44d5378309ee2abf1539bf71de1b7d7be3b5)
3 of them ((F2Pool_2, Ethermine and Nanopool)) are currently hashrate mine pool top five, this point be not at all surprising. From the table we can see that in the F2Pool_ 2 highlighted the empty blocks of large increases in output. As we summed up above from the top 5 mine in the pool, they are also in the second half of the worst performance of the miners.
Further digging, taking advantage of the fact empty block more directly reflects the reduction in average consumption of Gas (Note: Gas can be understood as the etheric Fang’s transaction cost), we can according to the ETH – USD price chart drawn gas consumption of F2Pool_2 block.
This reflects the obvious change of F2Pool_2 trading strategy, and with the 3 in the end of the month, 6 months and 7 months and the end of September several times fell sharply. Now we will of these prices and ETH – USD at a price comparison:
By tracking the largest decline, we noticed that in March, July and September showed the same pattern of decline. So obviously, F2Pool_2 uses a very price sensitive trading strategies include.
However, ranked second in the empty mining sites did not block Etherdig to adapt to fluctuations in the price of the use of this strategy, it will be just as the main mode of their hollowed block. On average they mined empty block 86% in 2018 (the year the proportion was 5.5% compared with F2Pool_2).
However, as is the top in the “example” Minmetals pool SparkPool, and did not become an important game player hollow block.