Minsheng Bank Huang Hongxing: the blockchain will not become the next banking outlet”
In 2015, the “block chain” concept quickly hot, sometimes limelight without the two. In view of the block chain bitcoin is the underlying technology, bitcoin is considered as “virtual currency” in recent years, significant achievements, so that the blockchain will subvert the monetary system, bring the banking industry a “revolution” in the public. Financial and technology institutions to block chain alliance, research, innovation and testing, in this “revolutionary” in fighting for the machine. In many plans blockchain possible application scenarios, the distribution in the banking industry very much, should become a reality of banking operations will inevitably bring influence and the huge impact, of course, is an important prerequisite for blockchain first complete subversion of the monetary system “”. At present, the traditional banking earnings decline, risk control, system science and technology challenges not frankly advanced situation, technological progress has always been on the most sensitive banking industry on the block chain is also very seriously, but the decline in asset prices, increase the risk of the financial regulatory system “in the heart of the global monetary system, strong turbulence under the background, the block chain can become a weapon to the current” reverse the decline in winter “silver industry, or even the next phase of the” air “, it is difficult to make affirmative judgment.
Determination of asset price “outlet” is coming
In asset prices to accelerate the rapid rise in the period, financial institutions can fast track approach to obtain higher returns, especially in the leap development of science and technology, almost all types of organizations are trying to search for and try to grab the station in the next “outlet” opportunities, such as the mobile Internet era of science and technology enterprises. Over the years, China rising asset prices, helping many industries including finance, gained huge profits. Asset prices should be mainly due to the sustained economic growth and, in addition, credit factors also have a negligible impact on asset prices. It is the rising asset prices for Chinese banking “golden ten years” to create a “outlet”, bank credit to the real economy, to invest in high-quality assets, asset prices rose sharply, banks get better reflect the input and output, continuous optimization of the scale, in the past ten years of profits and bad debts and other indicators the.
With the global economic growth, the general downturn in emerging markets aura disappeared, and various countries are considered representative of faster economic growth lost expectations, asset prices generally decline or will face greater risk. Of course, in effect, super currency exchange rate system changes in abnormal factors such as the international market, asset prices will also show differentiation trend, in the creation of short-term arbitrage opportunities at the same time, the banking industry will also increase the risk of shock. On the one hand, the differentiation and fluctuation of the price trend will have a negative effect on the Bank of the huge volume of stock assets; on the other hand, the banking industry obtained from asset price shocks in the “speculation” earnings, more than other types of financial institutions flexible gain, such as hedge funds. In fact, bank capital ratio little industry, long-term development is the road to get lower risk benefit from stable asset price movements, many factors and maintain the stability of asset price movements requires a stable macroeconomic and monetary value of confidence.
In this chain, asset prices, bank earnings growth, there is no good explanation system of bank profit growth. In recent years, the global market price changes in assets increased, crude oil, commodities and other major asset prices slump; domestic market, real estate prices fluctuate strongly, as an important embodiment of stock market will price spike, current is still low. Overall, the factors affecting the changes in asset prices is more complex, the relationship between capital, growth, confidence and price uncertainty, and thus will not appear in the new banking growth “outlet”, not to mention the domestic general situation is “asset shortage”.
Effect of block chain on asset prices almost no
Many factors affect asset prices, economic, political and social factors (such as currency, exchange rate and population) are closely associated with changes in asset prices, asset prices and market focus is on economic and financial factors to find the. In the influence of asset prices factors, the effect of science and technology or technology on asset prices there is almost no effective logic, practice is rarely seen in related cases. In fact, science and technology progress will bring more convenience to realize the asset transaction or asset value, rather than the creation or excessive increase in asset value and price. Of course, technological progress increases the “intangible assets” is another problem, such as the level of accounting; and in recent years the rise of “Internet plus” of the financial system in the asset value without too much impact, and still more reflected in the mighty wave crashing on a sandy shore increase transaction convenience.
As one of the most important achievements of scientific and technological progress in the stability of block chain, the technical level has been through nearly seven years of operation of bitcoin. As the concept of advanced technology, in-depth, block chain improvement and transformation of science and technology in the future will inevitably fall, especially in the Internet technology level have a significant impact and even “subversion” effect, with the technical progress, also will affect the economic and financial system in macro level, and bring about changes in the real economy, financial institutions and other participants in the micro subject, this is also the block chain is that “the current economic operation system subversion” including monetary and financial system logic. On the one hand, block chain is considered will have a significant impact on the monetary system and financial supervision and macro economy; on the other hand, block chain was found on the micro banking operation brings considerable positive effects, such as the creation of new financial products, greatly enhance the efficiency, effective prevention and control of risk, improve asset quality and other transactions. For the former, bitcoin blockchain technology has been produced and operated for seven years on, it was regarded as the block chain can be used in the future research and development of virtual currency technical maturity of evidence, in other words, the block chain can provide digital currency to replace the existing physical currency. At the same time, with the help of block chain and digital currency, financial regulation will be more accurate, such as the allocation of funds for a specific encoding will make funds could only be subject to. For the latter, is a block chain specific application in micro level bank plan.
Block chain including the recent two hot “Internet plus” essence is to the center. As above, the block chain is considered to be “two aspects of the existing economic system subversion” including monetary and financial system in digital currency macro level is still far away, and the financial intermediary financial supervision to the center is not only the current progress is not smooth, even the financial supervision center to strengthen the trend of “domestic market, such as partly hidden and partly visible.” that “three” will reform and direction is combined, China’s financial regulation will adapt to market changes in the situation more focused and centered. On the global level, central banks may weaken the supervision of the block chain in the use of the macro economic and financial are actually cautious. At the micro level, many ideas in the scene, the bank can’t replace the traditional examination and monitoring of assets, funds transfer and delivery, not to mention the trading system developed into a huge, block chain technology comprehensive transformation of the banking system is still very far away. But the most important reason has two: one is the block chain as a technology, is essentially to the center of the database, can also be understood as a kind of Internet application protocol, cannot do without the basis of Internet technology, while creating a bitcoin “new money creation” experiment, but the new currency in the long term will not replace the existing currency, because it is not only an economic problem relates to social and political integration; two is the block chain technology is still in a very early stage, not only has not yet formed a unified technical standards, and various technical scheme is still under rapid development, the block chain technology scalability, has not been large-scale practice test. Now is stay in the prototype stage. From the microscopic view, the most sensitive to technological progress in banking industry also will only block the chain as a tool for information transmission and transmission research, not the value of financial assets, financial assets are still online settlement. In summary, the block chain from the aspect of property and of macro and micro economic effects, influence the asset price is almost not.
It is difficult to finance and technology integration
Science and technology is the first productivity, finance is the core of economy, technology and financial theory combined with the “tall” body will produce good effect as “1+1>2”, which is the major topic of domestic theory and practice session has been committed to promoting the. In 2013 the “Internet plus” concept prevalent before the concept of “technology and finance” in China has been valued and Practice for many years, from national ministries to scientific research institutes and financial institutions are vigorously promoting the development of science and technology finance in our country, such as government finance of science and technology development planning, technology and Finance Bank branches, University Science and technology financial research journal and achievements etc.. In the years of research and practice, science and technology finance finds belong to financial industry category, mainly the integration of technology industry and financial industry, the foothold is emphasizing the development of technology industry need financial boost, and integration of technology industry and financial industry is more science and technology firms seeking financing. In the “Internet plus”, the financial sector “Internet banking” concept was quickly put forward and become a hot spot, a large number of institutions have their own claims “mutually beneficial network financial property. Banks and other traditional financial institutions also strive to expand the research and practice in this field. The evolution of time axis from “technology and finance” to “Internet plus” on the concept of “financial technology” and then hot, known as the “circle of financial science and technology revolution”, reflects a positive judgment of the market for financial and technology is closely integrated.
Science and technology English financial “FinTech”, namely Finance Technology abbreviation, FinTech is currently the financial circle, circle the most popular Internet concept, is considered as the core of financial innovation is driven by technology, Wikipedia for its description is: a use of high-tech to make financial services more efficient business model. No matter from the literal or the specific definition of financial technology that help science and technology for financial services, and the goal is to become a business model, and this technology finance more emphasis on financial enterprises to provide financing for science and technology. Financial technology is considered through the use of cloud computing, big data, mobile Internet and other emerging technology transformation, innovation and subversion of traditional finance, so as to provide inclusive financial services, which can be used in the financial sector in all aspects of credit loans, wealth management, insurance, payment, all the chips, and even the retail banking and housing intermediary. “Internet banking” and goes to the P2P can be delineated into the concept of financial technology, and the current block chain is financial topics in science and technology “the highest heat” a. In particular the blockchain financial technology application, including: the United States Securities Regulatory Commission approved by the online retailer Overstock.com block chain technology in the Internet stock issuance plan, the NASDAQ technology and using the block chain style management, the stock transaction on commercial banks established within the blockchain laboratory; in China, Ping An Bank founded in September 2015, R32016 joined the global block in April May, the chain alliance, China established the Chinese distributed protocol based alliance general ledger and financial block chain alliance, research and application of block chain in finance may carry out cooperation, but the distance is still too early to form effective profit model.
In fact, from the beginning of the Internet banking hot, with the market expectation of the technology and financial integration, essence and create new business model and profit model, as the essence of integration of science and technology and manufacturing industry will bring a new “industrial revolution”, but the effect is not up to expectations. From the nature of the financial point of view, is to facilitate the financing transactions and value realization, and the financial value of broad sense can never become the mainstream of social value creation. From the “technology and finance” to “financial technology”, although on different subjects, but does not represent the essence of technology and financial integration, if the premise is the core essence of “fusion” definition is to create new, sustainable and growing business model. The progress of science and technology to the development of the financial industry “revolutionary” lack of basis and early to block chain of the same will not bring radical change mode of operation of the banking industry.
To remain on the blockchain “vision”
In the process of looking for the essence of science and technology and financial integration, the blockchain reflected a more technical attributes, social attributes of the “subversion” extending the meaning, also need to constantly adjust and breakthrough in the perspective of social cognition and self technical level, in theory and practice is to achieve the expectations of the view that “many on the basis of” revolutionary change. Put aside the “digital currency” is still a long-term topic, from the micro level of the practical application, the block chain as a good center database and internet protocol, has a good prospect in the banking industry is currently operating in the. As for the most sensitive technology industry, banking research and test block chain technology is a natural, not to mention the blockchain concept from popular at the beginning of more contact with the financial sector together.
But as mentioned above, the basic logic of banking operation, such as the concept and mature business model, with strong stability, which is the long-term accumulation and investment layout results, although banks respond to changes in the market to respond faster and faster, as in recent years the rapid development of the layout and investment banking and carry out the block chain cooperation research, but its operation system and the logic did not have a significant and fundamental change, the traditional banking core is still strong. If the block chain is only from the angle of technology property of banking operation to provide better technical service, rather than from the “grand vision of subversion of the monetary and financial systems of the major innovation chain will block, it will not bring the change of bank operation mode and profit mode or business model, but it is helpful to obtain efficiency gains. Perhaps, as an internet protocol, the blockchain prime task now is to improve the efficiency and safety factor of bank’s existing business model from the point of view of technology, and in this process derived from “business model” is also more by the third party service provider as the main body, borne by the blockchain application of silver industry “upgrade technology outsourcing work. Of course, the optimization efficiency and safety level will bring benefits to the banks, but compared with the bank obtained from the “core business model of financing” in return, block chain is currently more is a “peripheral” income.
2013, “Internet plus” is also considered a new outlet, and are applicable to almost all industries. In fact, in the process of development is very difficult to accurately determine how a new technology and new things on the positive impact of both industry or transformation effect, and therefore need to continuously adjust and correct understanding in practice, and actively explore and maintain a rational and prudent attitude. At present, the block chain also is unable for the banking industry to create a new round of growth of the “outlet”, indigestion, to maintain profitability through the “winter” is still the first and last task, the asset price risk still can not be ignored. Finally, although the block chain, including the progress of science and technology, to the banking industry overall business model and profit sources or do not have a special influence, but to explore the blockchain and possible for the bank to bring business model use should continue to attach great importance to the progress of science and technology, after all in the long river, we always narrow and subjective understanding hindsight.