Nearly 4 million bitcoin permanent loss of the highest proportion of 23%
Beijing morning news on November 27th, according to the comparative study of Chainalysis digital forensics company bitcoin block chain, about 2 million 780 thousand to 3 million 790 thousand of a bitcoin has disappeared forever. The total number of the corresponding existing bitcoin is about 17% to 23%. Now each bitcoin corresponds to the value of approximately $8500.
Like gold will sink into the sea, will be destroyed by fire in the same currency, bitcoin will disappear forever from the internet. By 2040, the total amount of mining bitcoin will reach 21 million, but in fact can be traded and the use of bitcoin will be far lower than this figure.
Although other people are on the number of lost bitcoin of speculation, but the results of Chainalysis is very important, because they are on the block chain launched a detailed empirical analysis, and all bitcoin transactions are recorded in the block chain.
Chainalysis results from the existing bitcoin supply and trading activities are classified according to the age. For certain categories, the company uses statistical sampling to determine the number of lost.
“Mining bitcoin” reflects the total number of bitcoin mining in 2017 (they assume that bitcoin is not lost), “transaction” refers to the transfer of the past year and spent bitcoin, which lost a small number. Similarly, a kind of “strategic investors” refers to the already held bitcoin one or two years, they lost the proportion bitcoin is very small.
The table below shows another form, results show that the loss of bitcoin most is “not negotiable” bitcoin (2 to 7 years of mining, belonging to the so-called Hodler and other long-term investors) and 2009 to early 2010 bitcoin.
These figures reflect the true loss of bitcoin, not hacked or otherwise lost bitcoin — in the latter two cases, bitcoin is not lost, just by thieves control.
Please note that the above figures based on the expected limit, and in accordance with the expected lower calculation, Hodler bitcoin lost 30%, a total of about 2767468. In addition, the upper and lower limits are expected to have an important premise, which belongs to the Cong bitcoin bitcoin inventor has disappeared.
There are more bitcoin future will disappear. But the rate of disappearance is much lower than before, because the current bitcoin value is very high, people will be more vigilant attention to their whereabouts (but not as before the British lost a 7500 bitcoin key hard disk). At the same time, Chainalysis found it means bitcoin scarcity than expected, or that the market has reflected the expectation in the pricing?
“This is a very complicated problem. On the one hand, and do not consider the loss of bitcoin value directly. Because of the market speculation atmosphere, so the market value may put it into market economic model influence expenditure activity.” Chainalysis senior economist Kim Grauer (KimGrauer) said, “however, the market has adapted to the real available supply and demand — just look at the transaction will know. In addition, monetary policy will affect the exchange rate through changes in statutory reserve currency way. So, the answer is “yes”, “no” can also be.”
Chainalysis’s clients include the IRS and Europol, because they have rich data, and in-depth research on the block chain, so the reputation in the field of bitcoin big noise. The company often help owners and bitcoin circulation law enforcement bitcoin analysis.