Review of global financial products performance in 2020: bitcoin is the best!

Withstanding the bite of the new crown pneumonia, thanks to the support of loose monetary policy, the nutrition of positive fiscal policy, and in line with the rhythm of economic recovery, the global financial market has gone through a rough road of breaking away from darkness and seeking for light in the past year. In the end, both equity assets and risk assets, whether gold, silver or oil and steel, have experienced the baptism of plunder and restarted the upward spiral. At the beginning of the new year in 2020, the Dow and the NASDAQ are competing for a strong rise in the past year, and they are ready to reach a new record. Unexpectedly, after 20 days of consolidation, they are held down by the fierce new crown pneumonia, and a huge amount of money runs away in fear. The Dow Jones and the NASDAQ show a sharp decline of about 3000 points a day. In the next few days, there are five thrilling dramas of fusing. Finally, the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ are in a state of panic The NASDAQ index fell to the lowest point in five years, and all the gains of American stocks during Trump’s administration were swallowed up. It is not only US stocks that suffer from the meltdown, but also the stock markets of Brazil, Canada, Thailand and other 11 countries that have suffered from the “circuit breaker” within one day. Finally, many countries, including the UK, Italy and South Korea, have launched various short selling restrictions. Fortunately, before the regulatory agencies of various countries unfreeze the restricted short selling, the global stock market, driven by the combination of economic recovery and loose monetary policy, moved from a low point, and then climbed up one after another. Finally, the three major U.S. stock indexes successfully reached their historical highs in 2020, Nikkei 225 climbed to the highest position in 30 years, and India’s Bombay Sensex, one of the emerging market countries, also reached its highest level in 30 years It has become the second country after the United States to set a record for the global stock market. Generally speaking, although the stock markets of various countries have fallen more and risen less in the past year, the two major markets of the United States and China account for the largest market value of global listed enterprises, thus driving the total market value of global stock market to exceed 100 trillion US dollars for the first time in history in 2020. Unlike the stock market, which was strongly boosted by the global easing monetary policy, the Federal Reserve’s policy of reducing the federal funds rate to 0% and opening the limit policy of unlimited QE forced the bond market yield to the floor. The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds once hit a historical low of 0.487%, and the yield of 30-year treasury bonds also hit a new low of 0.974%, which is the first time in the history of the two products It has fallen below the threshold of 1%, and the 10-year yield of US debt will still be suppressed below 1.00% by the end of 2020. Moreover, with the practice of base currency interest rate being copied by many countries, negative yield bonds have grown in large areas of the world in the past year, and the negative range of multi-term bonds in Japan, Germany, Switzerland and other countries has continued to move down. Not to mention, Britain has also joined the camp of negative national debt yield, and its 2-year treasury bond yield has fallen to the bottom of the negative range At the same time, China issued five-year Euro bonds with negative interest rates for the first time. By the end of 2020, the market value of negative yield bonds in the world rose to 18.04 trillion US dollars, a record high in history. Of course, there is also the dollar, which has been in the grip of easy monetary policy over the past decade. Turning head down from the annual high of 103, the US dollar has never recovered in the past year, and finally left in desperation with a long and shady line. In developed economies, except for the euro and the Australian dollar, most of the other currencies, including the mainstream currencies in the IMF basket, did not perform well. In emerging markets, in addition to the RMB, more sovereign currencies did not see the dawn of appreciation, but collapsed collectively, including the Brazilian real and the Iranian real The Central Bank of Iraq simply announced that the domestic currency Dinar depreciated by about 20% against the US dollar, becoming the largest devaluation in the history of the country. In the final analysis, the reason for the above exchange rate phenomenon is that the economic recovery strength of non US countries is weaker than that of the United States after the epidemic, and it is difficult to form a support force for their own currencies. Moreover, the inertial quantitative easing adopted by Japan and other countries also poses a great pressure on their own currencies. Especially in the face of the cruel erosion of the epidemic situation, emerging market countries have limited medical infrastructure and public financial resources, and they have to increase their financial expenditure to prevent and control the epidemic and boost the economy. In the absence of public taxes, they have to continue to borrow money, forming a vicious circle in which the old accounts can not be paid back and the new ones can not be pushed back. The risk of default is suddenly emerging Under the pressure of “voting with feet”, international capital fled one after another, and the joint crackdown of “voting with feet” in the market made it difficult for emerging market currencies to escape the fate of breaking their bodies and bones. Compared with the stock market, bond market and foreign exchange market, the dynamic and treacherous forces in the commodity market in the past year are even more impressive. Looking at the K-line chart of crude oil futures in the international market, it is easy to see that after the opening of the market in 2020, the futures prices of NYMEX crude oil in New York and Brent crude oil in London began to plunge sharply. Moreover, the daily drop of nearly 10% often made investors of crude oil products panic and look pale. Even in the past year, the price of crude oil market dropped by 35.78% The direct reason for this is that Saudi Arabia, as a member of OPEC + and Russia, launched an open confrontation over the crude oil production reduction agreement. Under the pressure of the two sides’ almost irrational increase in production, the market was scared and the crude oil price suffered many violent attacks. What the belligerent didn’t expect was that the new crown pneumonia hit the crude oil price again before the two sides decided. The New York NYMEX crude oil futures price and London Brent crude oil futures price were pushed to the historical lows of $6.5/barrel and $15.98/barrel respectively. In the spot market, the oil price fell 300% one day, and then the settlement price was -37.63 US dollars The negative oil price of yuan / barrel is rare in the world. Fortunately, the recovery of the global economy has brought back the international oil price, which has almost fallen into a desperate situation, and then launched a strong daily level rebound and upward attack. In the whole year, the NYMEX crude oil price in New York and the Brent crude oil price in London both received a full positive line. As an important member of commodities, gold as a safe haven asset started from $1500 / oz at the beginning of 2020, and finally broke through the key price of $2000 / oz, and finally rose to the annual record of 2069 U.S. dollar / ounce. In keeping up with gold prices, silver also went up all the way to its highest level in the past seven years. In the same way, although copper, aluminum, zinc and other mainstream metal varieties initially appeared a significant correction due to the pressure of the epidemic, the power of the support from the global economic recovery finally pushed the copper price to a new high in nearly eight years, with aluminum and zinc each gaining more than double-digit increases. In addition, iron ore has set the highest price in history and become the largest increase in 2020 Commodities. If you want to ask which kind of financial products can best withstand the pressure and pressure under the new crown pneumonia craze, it must be bitcoin. Starting from the annual lowest point, bitcoin broke through the historical peak of $24000 at the end of the year. Bitcoin soared by more than 200% this year, becoming the currency with the strongest appreciation in the global currency series. Under the influence of this, cryptocurrency, including Ethereum, has witnessed an astonishing annual increase, and the collective improvement of the digital currency camp has also boosted the support of peripheral commercial capital. In one year, institutional investors have injected more than $3 billion into cryptocurrency funds and products, which is the second highest level in history. Behind the rapid rise of bitcoin is the surging development and landing of global legal digital currency. According to the data released by the bank for International Settlements, in the past year, 80% of the world’s 66 central banks are studying digital currencies, and 10% of them are about to issue digital currencies for their central banks. Although the scale of global capital M & A transactions has been reduced from 2.9 trillion US dollars in 2019 to 2.3 trillion US dollars in 2020, the bright spot of capital marriage in micro field is still particularly brilliant. In addition to NVIDIA’s acquisition of all the shares of arm in Softbank, which resulted in the largest semiconductor acquisition in the world, ConocoPhillips completed the acquisition of ConocoPhillips drilling company ConocoPhillips resources, also the largest shale industry transaction in 2020; at the same time, Aon insurance group, the world’s second largest insurance broker, acquired Wei, the third largest in the industry It has also forged the largest M & a deal in the global insurance industry so far. From the perspective of countries, in the global M & a garden built by commercial capital, the United States is as popular as in previous years. Nearly half of the top 50 transactions in the whole year took place in the United States, which correspondingly accounted for about 10% of the total global M & A transactions. China and Japan are closely behind the United States, which shows that enterprises from countries that can effectively manage the epidemic situation are more likely to have global capital Seize the opportunity in M & A.

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