The diagnosis of the disease

At the beginning of 2021, bitcoin will greet the new year with a big rise. On the evening of January 2, Beijing time, it was the first time in history that the $30000 mark was reached in the trading session. In fact, bitcoin has been rising almost all the year through 2020. By 11:00 p.m. Beijing time on November 30, 2020, after nearly three years, the price of bitcoin hit a record high again in some exchanges, with the highest price of $19863. Since then, bitcoin’s historical high has been continuously broken through, with a cumulative increase of more than 300% in the whole year last year, and it still keeps rising in the new year. In the short period of more than 10 days when the old year is going to go and the new year is coming, bitcoin has broken through multiple integer levels in a row, and the increase on the night of January 2 is even more crazy – breaking through 30000 US dollars and 31000 US dollars in succession. Today, no one can easily say what bitcoin will be like in the future. Bitcoin is a kind of cryptocurrency based on decentralization, point-to-point network and consensus initiative, open source code, and block chain as the underlying technology. On January 3, 2009, genesis block was born. Anyone can participate in bitcoin activities and issue bitcoin through a computer operation called mining. Since the number of bitcoin agreements is limited to 21 million, it is considered by some to be able to avoid inflation. In 2010, bitcoin generated a price in the transaction, initially about $0.0025 per piece. If compared with the current $30000 per piece, the “value” of bitcoin has increased by more than 12 million times in about 10 years. Bitcoin uses private key as digital signature, which allows individuals to pay directly to others. It is the same as cash and does not need to go through third-party organizations such as banks, clearing centers, securities dealers and electronic payment platforms. Thus, it avoids the problems of high fees, cumbersome procedures and supervision. Any user who has a digital device connected to the Internet can use it. Based on the above reasons, countries all over the world generally believe that this form of e-money is separated from the traditional financial system and is the best tool for money laundering. As a result, bitcoin has been resisted by many countries. Bitcoin’s sharp rise in 2020 is obviously similar to the reason why US stocks keep breaking new highs under the epidemic situation, that is, the global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have released water. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the U.S. government has launched three rounds of fiscal stimulus programs totaling about $3 trillion. Recently, the US Congress passed the latest round of US $900 billion stimulus plan with a high vote. The unprecedented scale of fiscal stimulus policy increases the liquidity of the market, but at the same time, it also raises people’s concern about inflation. In order to resist inflation, bitcoin, together with gold, has become a safe haven because of its scarcity. According to the program, the total number of bitcoin is 21 million, and with the increase of the number of bitcoin on the market, it is increasingly difficult to obtain bitcoin through mining. According to some data, as of the evening of December 30, 2020, the global supply of bitcoin has exceeded 18.58 million, that is to say, there are less than 3 million bitcoins available for “mining”. The decrease in the supply of new bitcoin not only increases the scarcity of the market, but also intensifies the market’s reluctance to sell, further pushing up the currency value. Secondly, more and more traditional financial institutions have joined in this crazy “game”. Many people in the “currency circle” believe that the players behind bitcoin are no longer the former technicians and blockchain enthusiasts, but are dominated by global financial institutions. As more and more blockchain digital assets such as bitcoin are involved by mainstream investment institutions, it will help to reduce concerns about the legitimacy of bitcoin. In November 2020, PayPal, an online payment giant with more than 300 million users, announced to provide bitcoin trading services to eligible U.S. customers after purchasing a large number of bitcoin. In December 2020, Singapore’s DBS Bank launched bitcoin and other digital asset trading services to institutional investors. In the past three years, the bank has been calling bitcoin a Ponzi scheme However, the rise of virtual currency represented by bitcoin has not changed the reality that it has not been generally recognized by the mainstream financial markets, which means that the higher the value of bitcoin, the greater the risk of investors. After all, behind the virtual currency, there is nothing but artificial scarcity caused by technology.

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