The loss of confidence in the currency, bitcoin has become one of the reasons of “grey swan in 2017
A recent DagensN ringsliv article? News release discusses the 2017 financial market is likely to occur “grey Swan ‘, this article by the famous investment bank Nomura Holdings compiled. The “digital currency breakthrough” famous in this article on the list, the reason is based on a widespread loss of confidence in the currency.
As the market is expected back in Europe and Britain played Trump was elected to be caught off guard and other bitcoin, encryption can not only subvert the traditional monetary assets, investors and investment will also be changes in turn the world upside down.
In some countries, this has been happening in Europe, and other countries will soon follow. Low interest rates and yields not only causes investors to turn to other places to find more attractive returns, and consumers will find daily appreciation rather than stagnant currency, thus increasing.
Nomura team said in a new report:
“It looks like we are standing in the center of monetary threshold, the new payment system will replace the notes and coins in circulation. Past people lose confidence in the value of money and the rise of alternative forms of payment.”
According to the Encyclopedia of investment (Investopedia) the definition of “grey swan” means “that can be foreseen in the extent of events, but is considered unlikely, if there will be on the market have a significant impact on the safety or health. Grey swan event is different from the black swan event (it is difficult to predict the total effect). Although it is possible to determine the nature of the event and the potential impact, but to accurately determine the total effect is very difficult.”
The other 2017 “grey goose” event list also includes: American productivity surge (2016 has stalled), the RMB price fluctuations, the further reform of capital controls, Asia, Japan’s inflation risk.
From the historical perspective, the Asian influence has always been the main catalyst for the price of bitcoin and other encryption currency movements. If the Asian capital controls, Japan’s inflation or devaluation of the renminbi, which will lead to a Domino effect, so the encryption currency are more likely to get mainstream status.
Currently bitcoin transactions are mostly from Chinese, RMB further volatility will only increase the volume of transactions bitcoin. As in India, when people lose confidence in the government’s legal tender, alternative currency tends to rise. Plus China of domestic and foreign liquidity capital controls, allowing the yuan to fluctuate based on the market demand will further encourage investors to switch to China bitcoin.
Japanese prime minister recently set goals will raise the inflation rate to 2%. At present, the inflation rate is only 0.1%, this suddenly soared could lead investors to transfer money from traditional assets such as bitcoin currency substitution.
“The Japanese prices are most likely will occur in the US dollar, the yen and the price of oil. The yen and rising oil prices will create inflation.
Japan next year will also be held at the prime minister election. Although according to the polls, the incumbent Prime Minister Abe Shinzo has a high support rate, the four largest opposition party is considering to nominate candidates, which may bring variable.
In Trump before the election, during the election and the election after the market reaction throughout the market can become the Japanese market to respond in the same political uncertainty index, therefore, a sharp rise in the price of bitcoin is not impossible.
Bitcoin prices from $800 has been close at hand, bitcoin will exceed this sign and enter the four digit, becoming gray swans? No matter what, 2017 looks for the entire ecosystem encryption currency is full of potential for a year.
“Grey goose” means “that can be predicted to a certain extent of the event, but was not considered possible, if there will be on the market have a significant impact on the safety or health. Grey swan event is different from the black swan event (it is difficult to predict the total effect). ?
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