Source: US Equity Research Institute “Tulip bubble” is a very famous bubble story, which happened in the 17th century in Holland. The price of tulip with “no intrinsic value” can soar and fall hundreds of times in a short period of time, which has become “the first major financial bubble recorded in history” and the pronoun of “soaring and falling”. Today’s sharp rise and fall of bitcoin seems to reveal a similar flavor. In the three trading days of the stock market’s rest, bitcoin has continuously broken through multiple important psychological resistance levels, and the price has been soaring like a rocket. The reason why asset bubbles can form is that in the process of rising asset prices, few people are willing to sell. In a market where there are only buyers but no sellers, the natural price will continue to rise. At this time, as long as there is additional capital in the market, asset prices will continue to rise. When the bubble will burst, that is, there is no extra capital in the market. Although the asset prices are still rising, the buyers have disappeared at this time. The illiquid assets are wealth on paper after all. Once someone cashes out, the price will collapse. At the weekend, I saw a lot of magical predictions about bitcoin. Some people said that the price of bitcoin exceeded $400000 at the end of each year. Others said that it was only a matter of time for bitcoin to be worth $1 million. All kinds of news about bitcoin trading were hot, but I always felt that there was a trace of danger. The craziness of the bitcoin market today is that everyone has a lot of money to buy bitcoin, which is like a bottomless pit. No matter how many bitcoins are in circulation, the market will be quickly absorbed by new buyers, and the market is still hungry. In the past three days, when the stock market was closed, there was no place for capital to vent. The liquidity in the market was more, and the increased money had nowhere to go. Naturally, they all aimed at the bitcoin market. There is only one thought in everyone’s mind at this moment. Whoever sells bitcoin at this time is a fool. I believe that the most ridiculed group of people recently is those who always say that bitcoin is overvalued. In the process of bitcoin price rising, I don’t know how many people thought that bitcoin price would be beaten down sooner or later, but this group of people were tragically beaten by a new round of skyrocketing. At this time, no one believed that the price of bitcoin might fall. The recent short position, it can be said that the loss is extremely heavy. According to the data of aicoin 11:00, the accumulated fund of position explosion in the last 24 hours has reached 425 million US dollars (about RMB 2779 million yuan), including 74.31% of the short position, 2.065 billion yuan of the fund of empty single position explosion, and the number of open positions in 24 hours has reached 19400. Bitcoin has become a myth when it breaks through triple resistance levels at the weekend. I believe that in the next period of time, this will further push up the price of bitcoin. People’s psychological expectation is very magical. When the price breaks through a certain integer, there will be some chemical changes. But it’s also the trigger for bitcoin’s future bubble to burst, because as prices rise, small retail investors who once had the opportunity to invest in bitcoin will be left in despair. Institutions are the most sensitive. Once there is a stir in the market, they are also the fastest to run. At this time, there are no retail investors to take over. When one day the market appears to dry up, it means that the game is coming to an end. Of course, there will be a lot of people who don’t notice the change. Because people are still carnival, bitcoin prices are still rising, people are still silent in the dream of wealth. Only at this time, the high price has no market. No market means no trading, no trading. What will that mean? Whether bitcoin is a myth or a bubble has been told by history countless times. Every time, countless people will be hit. Because in the final analysis, this is not a value investment, but a game about people’s hearts, which is always hard to figure out. Of course, there are wise and stupid people in the world, but in front of desire, they are all the same. This is the human right. When the profit is 10%, the smart person will become crazy. When the profit is 90%, 10%, or even several times the profit, there will be no wise person and fool in this world. Why we spend so much time talking about bitcoin today? In fact, we want to talk about Tesla. Now Tesla and bitcoin have basically become investment objects of the same nature. This morning, sister Mu had a share. She was optimistic about Tesla because it was the biggest winner in the field of automatic driving, with the most and the highest quality data in the industry. When I see this view, I am very confused. Can Tesla accumulate so-called high-quality data more than Uber travel platforms? Uber has hundreds of times more car owners than Tesla, and its accumulated travel data and complicated road conditions are far more than that of Tesla. However, such a company has sold its auto driving business, which shows that the auto driving business is not easy to do and requires huge investment. Less than half a million cars are sold a year, and they are walking around the world. How can this accumulate the most high-quality data in the industry? An immature metaphor, if there is a Tesla in my hometown, can this Tesla collect all the complicated road data of the whole county? Baidu, Google these do automatic driving, spend 10 billion a year to do map road data collection, are all useless, I am very confused sister Mu’s optimism. To this day, I still firmly believe that Tesla and bitcoin are the two biggest bubbles in 2020. They are bubbles, and they will burst one day. But I don’t recommend you to go short. After all, the market is so crazy now, and it can become more crazy, so just have a look. Of course, I didn’t write this article to empty bitcoin. In fact, it has nothing to do with us making half a dime in US stocks. Here I just want to say that bitcoin’s sharp rise and fall has nothing to pay attention to. After all, we have better investment targets. If you want to buy bitcoin, I can give you a good suggestion. In the process of bitcoin soaring, the volume of trading is explosive growth, so sq and pypl, which provide bitcoin trading, are undoubtedly the biggest winners, because no matter what the trend of bitcoin price is, it will not affect sq and pypl lying down to earn service charges. Before the market was closed, bitcoin rose 223% in the year. Taking into account the three-day surge, bitcoin’s rise was about 245%. Sq started to provide bitcoin trading in 2019, with an increase of 265% this year. It is estimated that the increase may reach about 270% in the year at the opening of the market on Monday, and the bitcoin has won the race. Pypl only started to support bitcoin trading in October this year, but the increase in the last two months is not small. SQ and pypl are the two companies with more explosive power, so there is no doubt that sq is sq. after all, SQ’s cache download volume has been significantly ahead of pypl. Now sq’s market value is 100 billion US dollars, while bitcoin’s overall market value is 600 billion US dollars. Do you think that if bitcoin continues to soar in the future, which one is more likely to double? I think the conclusion is clear at a glance. Therefore, if you are optimistic about bitcoin for a long time, especially if you think that bitcoin can rise several times, then you can buy some sq, or directly buy sq’s long-term call options. The yield will be far ahead of bitcoin, and the risk will be several orders of magnitude smaller. After all, although the rise of SQ’s share price is closely related to bitcoin, others have actual performance. For the layout of next week, the focus is still on the e-commerce payment track. MasterCard released a data over the weekend that the retail sales of holiday in the United States increased by 3% year-on-year, which was mainly driven by e-commerce. The consumption of e-commerce shopping increased by 49% year-on-year, accounting for 19.7% of the total retail sales, and the number of online shopping jumped 44%. This can be said to be quite explosive growth, the performance of a number of e-commerce payment companies should be a brand name. Every year after Christmas, a number of e-commerce companies publish holiday sales, the most remarkable of which is Amazon. It is believed that Amazon will also release this year’s data before the opening of trading on Monday. At that time, companies such as shop, Etsy, W, chwy, Se, Meli, SQ and pypl may all benefit from the growth of Amazon’s sales data. As for what is the most obvious opportunity, it is obvious that sq and pypl. On the one hand, the price of bitcoin has skyrocketed, and the handling fees of the two payment platforms are estimated to be making a happy profit; on the other hand, the explosive growth of e-commerce is bound to contribute to the growth of mobile payment. The two performances are good support, and it should be very difficult for the stock price to grow or not. What are you waiting for?