The universe in currency: a review of the macro situation in July

Bitcoin price is currently standing at 40000 US dollars. At this integer position, there is a strong long short emotional conflict. It is easy for those who see short-term rebound to think that the repeated struggle for $40000 is a rebound to the top and it is time to go; If you look at the rebound or reversal of the central line, you can see where this is. The rise has just begun. At the end of July, a number of financial data from the United States and the United States were released. Therefore, I think the most important thing is to observe the development of the macro situation, because changes in the situation will at least have a great impact on the market in August and beyond. For the middle line or long-term, this is important. At the end of July, the most important economic data was the second quarter GDP of the United States. The GDP growth of the United States in the second quarter was 6.5%, better than that in the first quarter (revised to 6.3%). This data seems to be very good for ordinary people, but from a professional point of view, it is actually very bad. We should know that this is the economic recovery period of the United States. The so-called “GDP growth rate” is based on the extremely low base of the same quarter last year. Originally, economists in the United States had expected GDP growth in the second quarter to reach 8.4%, but now the actual difference is 1.9%. The gap between the two points is not small, Traditionally, such a short-term forecast gap is a disgrace to any professional financial institution or economist. Just think about it, if the economic forecast of the last quarter for less than three months in the next quarter can deviate so much, it is also worthy of the professional to eat this bowl of rice? However, such humiliation happened, which shows that the economic situation of the United States has changed rapidly. The economic situation of the United States, which was predicted three months ago, has changed greatly in three months, leading to the failure of the forecast. This kind of prediction failure has also disgraced the authoritative media. Before the release of the data, the headline of the Wall Street Journal’s tweet was “the GDP growth of the United States in the second quarter may reach a record high”. After the data was published, it had to be immediately revised to “the economy of the United States has now exceeded the level before the epidemic”. This is nonsense. If we compare the economic volume of the United States before the epidemic to a static spring, In fact, when the spring is compressed and the economy recovers when the spring is released, the rebound force of the spring will naturally make the spring rebound to the remote section longer than the length of the original spring when it is still. However, if there is no follow-up force, it will be pulled back. Judging from other economic data, it is indeed not good. Let’s take a look at four key economic data: the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 5.4% in January and June from a year earlier, the fastest growth rate since 2008. This is the big event that m fed is most worried about right now – inflation. 2. Rising unemployment: in the week ending July 24, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time was 400000, double the number before the outbreak. The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits rose slightly to 3.27 million. 3. Investment decline: in the second quarter, total domestic private investment in the United States fell by 3.5%. 4. Consumption: personal spending increased by 11.8%, which was the main force of 6.5% economic growth in the second quarter. The price was a sharp drop in the personal savings rate, from $4.1 trillion in the previous quarter to $1.97 trillion – the average American is running out of money again. In addition, we need to consider the impact of the epidemic situation. In recent days, the number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States has been maintained at around 70000. On July 23, it exceeded 110000, which is still the result of only half of the States. In fact, the current epidemic situation in the United States is not far away from the worst of last year. The existing vaccines obviously have no bird use for delta virus strain, which is also confirmed by facts in China. The epidemic is bound to further affect the economic development of Laos and the United States, and the economic data in August may be even worse. Moreover, the adverse economic recovery does not seem to be limited to the old us, but to the whole world. In the second half of the year, economists’ forecast of GDP growth rate in the United States has dropped to 3.5%, and China is about 5%. China will also enter a difficult period. We should experience it in our own cities. Europe is certainly worse than the United States, and developing countries are even more troubled. Under the above macro background, we can understand that no matter how many “hawks speak”, it is difficult for the us to reduce the nature of liquidity. Under the severe epidemic situation, the prices of global social necessities are bound to remain high. Inflation alone has limited influence on the economy and consumption through increasing interest rates and recovering liquidity. However, the impact of reducing liquidity on the economy and consumption will be immediate. Ordinary Americans may run out of cash in the third quarter, and a new round of “helicopter money” is urgently needed. Many people’s understanding of the liquidity of the old US inflation is biased. Do you think the Fed and Wall Street are concerned about inflation because they are worried that people can’t afford to buy goods and starve? Bullshit. Americans can’t bear the high inflation in the 1980s for almost 10 years, and they don’t see who revolts. What’s the importance of grassroots livelihood? The key is to influence the “financial establishment”. For example, the Treasury bonds of the United States and the United States are about $30 trillion, and the interest rate is usually only 1% +. If there is no inflation, the annual interest bearing is more than 300 billion US dollars, which is relatively easy. 2% of the inflation also bears the interest of 1 trillion US dollars, although the embarrassment is still tolerable. But what if inflation remains around 5% for a long time? That’s a bit of a death row, which means an annual interest expenditure of $2 trillion – the United States can declare bankruptcy, because the $20 trillion economy, the annual interest rate is 10% of GDP. What’s the concept? This is the biggest threat of inflation to the old us, and also the real pain point of the Z government and the M Federal Reserve of the old us. If vicious inflation occurs and is not handled properly, it may shake the foundation of the country and cause a super financial crisis. From the interest rate of national debt, raising interest rate and tightening liquidity are direct bleeding, while liquidity overflow is a chronic poison. Which do you think the Z government and M Federal Reserve will choose? In my opinion, the recent appreciation of the US dollar has little impact on the capital capacity and investment market. The reason for the appreciation is that the economic situation of the countries that make up the dollar index is the same as that of other countries, and the legal currencies of other countries are even worse. However, this has not hindered the overall flooding of the total amount of the US dollar. If there is no suitable place for money, it will naturally find its way. Unlike last year, bitcoin is very sensitive to the rise and fall of the dollar. From the perspective of bitcoin’s short-term market, I think that $44000 will be a relatively large barrier. Here is the position of the 30 week line. Breaking through and standing firmly means a complete reversal of the weekly structure, so the competition is bound to be fierce. Of course, I don’t mean that the ultra short term will definitely reach this position, but I just say that if we reach this position, we need to pay close attention to it. On the whole, the short-term trend is a little bit too high, but the currency circle small pond, what kind of rapid trend is possible in front of the capital strength. The main risk in the near future is the risk of US stocks, and more people in the US market are worried about the possibility of a short-term collapse of US stocks. If it happens, it will naturally have a large short-term impact on the special currency and the currency circle. And watch its development. The above is my analysis and Reflection on the macro situation based on the important economic data of the United States at the end of July. The words of one family are for reference only. Covering 10000 spot and contract users, currently focusing on the secondary market of currency circle, good at short-term trend trading! Cognition creates wealth, spirit creates faith. I am heaven and earth. Thank you for your continuous attention to my articles. I welcome your attention, praise, comments and forwarding. Your growth is the driving force that we continue to share, and it is my value! Warm reminder: there is a delay in sending the post, so please refer to the real-time quotation for details. The contract operation must take stop loss and stop profit, and the control of position should also be grasped. This material is for learning reference only. It does not constitute a sale suggestion. You may buy and sell it at your own risk! Heaven and earth in writing / coins

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