U.S. economic dilemma and bitcoin up!

However, such humiliation and humiliation happened. This shows that the economic situation in the United States has changed very fast. The economic situation in the United States, when the forecast was made three months ago, has changed greatly in three months, leading to the failure of prediction. This kind of prediction failure has also disgraced the authoritative media. Before the release of the data, the headline of the Wall Street Journal’s tweet was “US GDP growth may reach a record high in the second quarter”. After the data was released, it had to be immediately revised to “the US economy has now exceeded the level before the epidemic”. This is nonsense. If we compare the size of the US economy before the epidemic to a static spring, In fact, when the spring is compressed and the economy recovers when the spring is released, the rebound force of the spring will naturally make the spring rebound to the remote section longer than the length of the original spring when it is still. However, if there is no follow-up force, it will be pulled back. Judging from other economic data, it is indeed not good. Let’s take a look at four key economic data: the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 5.4% in January and June from a year earlier, the fastest growth rate since 2008. This is the Fed’s biggest concern right now – inflation. 2. Rising unemployment: in the week ending July 24, 400000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time, double the number before the outbreak. The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits rose slightly to 3.27 million. 3. Investment decline: total domestic private investment fell by 3.5% in the second quarter. 4. Consumption: personal spending increased by 11.8%, which was the main force of 6.5% economic growth in the second quarter. The price was a sharp drop in the personal savings rate, from $4.1 trillion in the previous quarter to $1.97 trillion – the average American is running out of money again. In addition, we need to consider the impact of the epidemic situation. In recent days, the number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States has been maintained at around 70000. On July 23, it exceeded 110000, which is still the result of only half of the States. In fact, the severity of the epidemic situation in the United States is not far away from that of last year, and the existing vaccines are obviously not effective for delta virus strain, which is also confirmed by facts in China. The epidemic is bound to further affect the economic development of the United States, and the economic data in August may be even worse. And the adverse economic recovery does not seem to be limited to the United States, but to the whole world. In the second half of the year, economists’ forecast for the growth rate of US GDP has dropped to 3.5%, and China will enter a difficult period, which we should experience in our own cities. Europe is certainly worse than the United States, and developing countries are even more precarious. Under the above macro background, we can understand that no matter how many “hawkish speeches” are, it is difficult for the United States to reduce the nature of liquidity. Under the severe epidemic situation, the prices of global social necessities are bound to remain high. Inflation alone has limited influence on the economy and consumption by increasing interest rates and recovering liquidity. However, reducing liquidity will have an immediate impact on the economy and consumption. Ordinary Americans may run out of cash in the third quarter. A new round of “helicopter money” is urgently needed. Many people’s understanding of US inflation is biased. Do you think the Fed and Wall Street are concerned about inflation because they are worried that Americans can’t afford to buy goods and starve? Bullshit. Americans can’t bear the high inflation in the 1980s for almost 10 years, and they don’t see who revolts. What’s the importance of grassroots livelihood? The key is to influence the “financial establishment”. For example, the U.S. Treasury bonds are about $30 trillion, and the interest rate is usually only 1% +. If there is no inflation, the annual interest bearing is more than 300 billion US dollars, which is relatively easy. 2% of the inflation also bears the interest of 1 trillion US dollars, although the embarrassment is still tolerable. But what if inflation remains around 5% for a long time? That’s a bit of a kill, which means $2 trillion in annual interest payments – the United States can declare bankruptcy, because an economy of $20 trillion has interest rates of 10% of GDP a year. What’s the concept? This is the biggest threat of inflation to the United States and the real pain point of the US government and the Federal Reserve. If vicious inflation occurs and is not handled properly, it may shake the foundation of the country and cause a super financial crisis. From the interest rate of national debt, raising interest rate and tightening liquidity are direct bleeding, while liquidity overflow is a chronic poison. Which do you think the US government and the Fed will choose? The blues thinks that in recent years, the appreciation of the US dollar has little impact on the capital capacity and investment market. The reason for the appreciation is that the economic situation of the countries that make up the dollar index is as bad as that of other countries’ fiat currencies. However, this has not hindered the overall flooding of the total amount of the US dollar. If there is no suitable place for money, it will naturally find its way. Unlike last year, bitcoin is very sensitive to the rise and fall of the dollar. Judging from the short-term market situation of bitcoin, the blues thinks that $44000 will be a relatively big barrier. Here is the position of the 30 week line. Breaking through and standing firmly means a complete reversal of the weekly structure, so the competition is bound to be fierce. Of course, the blues is not to say that the ultra short-term will definitely reach this position, but to say that if it reaches this position, we need to pay close attention to it. On the whole, the short-term trend is a little bit too high, but the currency circle small pond, what kind of rapid trend is possible in front of the capital strength. The main risk in the near future is the risk of US stocks, and more people in the US market are worried about the possibility of a short-term collapse of US stocks. If it happens, it will naturally have a large short-term impact on the special currency and the currency circle. And watch its development.

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