Investment is the essence of cognition and rational realization, often is the slave of passions. As an animal is difficult to completely get rid of the influence of expectations and emotions, the movement of human beings and human behavior as the material and material can not be divorced from the laws of nature. In order to correct cognition and judgment, we need to understand human behavior from the perspective of science. The following is the former mayor of Taipei, Ke Wenzhe’s “Understanding Human Behaviors From speech at the Perspective of Science” the angle from his logic operation, true value, table probability, Bias theorem and quantum mechanics to observe the phenomena of life, hoping to bring a reason for everyone calm in a bear market.
1. bias (Bias): people are actually using their own when watching this world coordinate
There is a word called To see is to believe, then people willing to believe that. But in fact, we often can see our own things. Even worse, we often can see their hope is really something. This is the source of bias (bias). In order to solve the Bias problem, solve the human understanding of the world, we need to understand human behavior in a scientific way, the purpose is to reduce human error.
For example, in the picture, the jeweler can see is 960 million yuan worth of jewelry, rather than that of the female
2. we are often unable to decide, because I know too little (thought without learning is perilous), but limited information, so to use logic (learning without thinking is useless)
Man is a selective impairment of animal, the amount of information is not enough, you can not make a judgment. The easiest way is to look for more information! But the data is often limited, requires the use of logic reasoning through various phenomena, draw a conclusion. As a doctor, through the phenomenon, to exclude all kinds of possible causes of deduction.
3. the importance of logical deduction
Good people not encounter things all over again to end round again, but an antidote against the disease. The logic operation can quickly filter out a lot of problems, improve the accuracy and efficiency, two kinds of thinking is the core of deduction and induction.
Give a simple example: a thing (Q) events, presumably (A), (B), (C) three kinds of symptoms, but if (A) you will have side effects (D), if (B) you will have (E) the reaction, but today no see (D), (E) two phenomenon, can judge logic is (C) symptoms “
For example, X photo below, the doctor needs to make a diagnosis according to the first picture. Lung white there are two possibilities, pneumonia and atelectasis, pneumonia (atelectasis), white blood cells increased if the temperature rises (or, if have a fever) did not increase the white blood cells did not have a fever, pneumonia is not, that is atelectasis, is probably caused by the blockage of phlegm and mucus.
Another important formula is Bias’s theorem, the conditional probability of random events A and B’s theorem, P (A|B) is the possibility of A occurred in B occurred in the absence of. We went straight to a random guess it is very difficult, but in the understanding of the B (context and background knowledge), can greatly increase the accuracy of prediction, the B may be the history, history, resume, past performance.
The significance of history
4.: with the increase in the number of repetition probability, the probability of falling soon
If 50 people in a class, the seat is gone, every free group, a guy and a girl of two people three times each in the same group, there is no relationship between the two of them? This probability is very low! (1/25) ^3. Caution is a small probability event. The exception is often feel stupid.
An event occurs repeatedly, with the repetition probability decreases quickly
The 5. probability is low there are two possibilities: one is the probability itself is very low, two is the premise of applicable mechanism (mechanism) is not right.
The normal distribution (Normal Distribution): also known as the Gauss distribution, most of the physical phenomena, statistical probability approximates this phenomenon. One standard deviation s, accounted for the proportion of 68% to 3 times the standard deviation was 99.72%.
For example, if you ask a girl the first time she said that OK is very busy recently. Second time around, she said recently happened to catch the case, no way out. Third, of course will be the same. It is interesting that the probability is very low? This is just to her? The following picture line block shown is the occurrence rate of this? Plainly, that is simply not applicable to this mechanism (the normal distribution of red), in fact mechanism is that she doesn’t love you, do not give you the opportunity.
Girls love you (for Mechanism) is wrong
A very low probability there are two possibilities: one is the probability is very low, two is the premise of applicable mechanism (mechanism) is not right. But because human expectations have feelings, often do not recognize the latter, unable to make rational judgment. We always convince myself that I is a special case, we wait for the other person is really just three times are really busy, so can’t make it.
Because there is hope this thing, we often will make a very low probability of selection.
6. in fact, our society is not the same, but the combination of several different society
Isolation of social isolation and biological is like. We separated the wealth, the rich people with rich people, poor and poor communication, understanding a noble, ordinary people of ordinary people exchanges. There are so many people in the world, but our own circle of friends and is similar to their own background. How to jump out of the “society”, to first order, is to want to question!
The rich and the poor, North and south, urban and rural areas, is the blue and green camp is divided, and there is a strong correlation between
7. material (particle), the most appropriate distance
The safety distance between people, if beyond this distance, there must be a relationship (special bonding). Good friends meet, greet the middle finger or spank. For an unfamiliar people than the middle finger, what will happen?
The matchmaker is the catalyst, reduce the activation energy (activation energy is also known as the threshold, a chemical reaction is used to represent the minimum energy required), reduce the two human reactions of difficulty.
To some extent, the meaning of the revolution, but also overcome the activation energy.
8. metastable state (MetaStable): the reason of existence of vested interest to pull the high threshold (threshold), or it will move toward the steady state
Why is there a metastable unreasonable exist in the world? Because people have interests, will try to pull the high threshold, the maintenance is not easy to shake the status. From the energy point of view, when stimulated naturally toward equilibrium steady state, but when the high threshold pull difficult to shake. For example, we often see the power to promulgate some unreasonable regulations, is to secure his reign / monopoly conditions. If one has no quarrel broke up, the 80% is not third external intervention.
9. entropy law: the essence of death is because we can’t destroy the environment to destroy themselves
“The lowest energy, the maximum degree of chaos” is the principle of the universe, the entropy is used to calculate the degree of chaos system. The second law of thermodynamics (Second Law of thermodynamics) expressed as: it is not possible to heat from low temperature to high temperature object object does not produce other effects, or the increment of irreversible thermodynamic process of entropy is always greater than zero, also known as the “entropy law”.
In the natural process of an isolated system the total chaos (i.e. “entropy”) will not reduce, namely a S greater than 0, S (total) = S (system) + S (surrounding). To ensure a S greater than 0, the system (system) and environment (surrounding) entropy remained unchanged or increased.
“I exist” is organized, and no one organization structure is stable, in order to maintain a S I (system) is less than 0, but also to ensure a S (total) is greater than 0, so people must cause more damage to the surrounding environment.
Our purpose is to destroy the surrounding environment, let S (surrounding) increases, when can’t destroy the environment to destroy themselves, this is the essence of death.
10. failure is the norm, success is the exception, failure is the mother of success
In the human history of the birth, the extinction of species on earth more than species survived, failure is the norm, success is the exception. We must have a cognition, most of the attempts to basically fail, but not because we were afraid to do.
An enterprise can survive? In fact, for the enterprise just hanging signs, but the content was different. Apple in fact originally sold computer PC machine, but there is no improvement, now relying on the iPhone mobile phone market around the world.
11. success is the mother of failure, it is difficult for humans to change from a successful paradigm in the past
1) using the same technique or product, the winner must be already in the existing market — the largest company
2) disadvantage only one way, is innovation
We often listen to what people say, how should say, you can tell who is the same. But in fact, if in accordance with the same pace will go in behind the others. The so-called large, cannot move beyond into opponent. Only innovation could modify the game mechanism in the reproduction revolution.
In the industry, DOS DOS plus will not be defeated, DOS Windows will only be annihilated, Nokia had a very temporary victory, was later defeated iPhone. In politics, Trump defeated Hilary, Ke Wenzhe is also the phenomenon of similar examples. Sometimes, the disadvantages are also advantages, because it had not been successful, have what good loss, why worry about failure?
12. spark of genius everywhere flash, but also to the environment permits, to lead the fire
Sparks of fire, to fire, need to look at the circumstances of the situation with your understanding of society. Many things will happen, but it will not be popular, in fact decided that the whole social environment. Absorb new information at any time, in order to keep the best sensitivity, when the time comes, you will catch the wind ship.
13. Buddha said: can not say
The so-called system of mathematics, Compatible (compatible) easy to prove, Complete (complete) difficult to prove, so many problems we probably know what is compatible, but it is not really complete, frankly quite difficult. Buddha said do not say, there is no absolute answers to many questions, only need to consider how to help you in this world?
The unknown and not say
14. what is death? What is alive?
In fact, many people have died at the age of 30, just 80 years before the coffin.
The end of life, there are only two outcomes: intubation with no intubation. The final took glory, splendour, wealth and rank, not to go, is the same outcome. So come back to, the most important thing in life is the process of! If you can accept death, so for a lot of interference will not be so emotional care.
15. inevitable or accidental?
1) if the Newtonian mechanics is right, then the whole history is fixed
2) if quantum mechanics is correct, the two particles collide, he is a probability distribution in the air distribution, from the whole history are accidental.
What is right? According to the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, there is no way to know each particle’s position and velocity, the uncertainty does not mean there is No. The history is inevitable or accidental? In the end the future of humanity and history, have the consciousness of the people in it? We still have no answers.
16.: the fate of being kind do
Mother Teresa, her every day to Calcutta street, the dying beggar picked up to give him a bath, pray for him, and the beggar died. In the secular view, Teresa work income ratio = 0, EPS = 0 (net profit per share). But if there is no mother, the beggar in the dead time, the world will hate, curse this life, but because mother, so these beggars in the dead time, may think God sent an angel to take them back.
Because people have feelings and emotion, so we will not make a scientific and rational thing, but it is because of such a move, but we respected. People, wonderful.
The doctor could not change the human the fact of death, economic policy does not change the rule of economic cycle. People will die, enterprises can not endure, and death is irreversible normal. In the venture capital industry, achieves guku million, early business final is always a close call, after the bubble can survive the inevitable is one of the few. Economic policymakers, such as doctors, its role is not only through the use of surgery, various moves direct elimination of the “death” of the facts, but through the physical and psychological means to reduce the cycle of the “process” in the throes of the suffering of all sentient beings. “Treatment effect” is not a result, but the long-term and systematic, there are subtle measure.
Understanding Human Behaviors From the Perspective of Science and Ke Wenzhe