We need six reasons for block chain skeptics


nnnJason Bloomberg is president of Intellyx, the world’s leading industry analyst and globally recognized as a flexible digital transformation specialist. In this article, he analyzed the current around the bitcoin and block chain under the hype of the need for calm, bold doubts of the six reasons. And pointed out that the focus on the block chain and Bitcoin great potential at the same time, but also calmly look at these subversive innovation in the existence of the potential risks.n
nnTranslation: Clovern
nIn my Forbes column, I have covered many new subversive technologies – and all kinds of innovations have a certain degree of rational bubble and exaggeration. In order to balance this faint thing, I try to raise some skepticism to some extent, but it is not like Debbie Downer, which always brings bad news to cold water, but helps people through Hype to more clearly understand the hot topic now.n
nHowever, for a theme (in fact, a series of topics), I was an outright skeptics, and do not feel any guilt: that is the bit currency and block chain.n
nAs early as 2015, I wanted to know whether Bitcoin had a real purpose. I was involved in radical radicals who wanted Bitcoin to lead the global financial system.n
nI have also used “hard bifurcation” for Bitcoin to solve whether the expansion problem is fatal to the encrypted currency, or whether at least the solution is not legitimate.n
nI have likened Bitcoin to bloodstone and pointed out that it was the value of the bitter currency that the illegitimate use of Bitcoin.n
nI have also questioned IBM’s long-term betting on the chain, and recently, I cited several reasons for skepticism about the block.n
nGiven the above-mentioned history of opposing attitudes, you may think that I have some prejudice against the Bitcoin and the block chain.n
nThen you are wrong.n
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nI am skeptical about the odds and blocksn
nIn fact, I strongly support emerging subversive technologies and their applications – including block chains and Bitcoin.n
nHowever, as an industry analyst, my role is to publish a disrespectful trend in the market insights. Given the unique characteristics of Bitcoin and the chain of chains, these insights must come from a skeptical position – not just myself, but from the minds of the people who are in general.n
nIn other words, we need more people who are skeptical about the odds and blocks. The following is six reasons.n
nThe hype about this technology is almost out of control. In the idol circle, enthusiastic enthusiasts dominate most of the remarks, drowned a more rational point of view. Therefore, most of the people who hold these rational views are taking the burden and leave, leaving the circle.n
nThe same is true of the block chain. There are too many articles to promote “block chain is a breakthrough” or “block chain will change the world”, which led to people into a fanatical. Harvard University professors Marco Iansiti and Karim R. Lakhan said:n
nn”We are very worried about speculation.If you do not understand how the technology to gain a firm foothold, to coax the chain to carry out innovation, the situation is very bad.n
nnSolution to find the problem. For many people or companies, the typical pattern of technological innovation is a tricky problem. One or more of the suppliers noticed the problem and proposed a new solution. To reach a deal, the results you see, a market was born.n
nBut for the block chain is not the case. Now the situation is that the block chain enthusiasts look at the technology, began to brainstorm to find possible use cases. May find some business problems, and then the block chain is the most appropriate solution, and perhaps not – but this is some cart before the horse, as if from the wrong side of the formula to start.n
nThe complex problem in the bubble. Bitcoin is undoubtedly a speculative bubble, and as long as the bubble will eventually burst. But in essence, the bitcoin’s bubble has a big difference from all previous bubbles, from tulips to online stocks.n
nnDifference: Bitcoin / block chain is both investment and trading medium. When the tulip frenzy broke out, when the gold and silver economy survived. And the dot-com bubble burst did not affect the way we consumed or invested in stocks.n
nnAnd once the bitbell bubble burst, the whole trading framework around the bitcoin is likely to collapse itself. Of course, I may overdo this risk – but the risk still exists.n
nThe centrality of the deal will conflict with crime and compliance from beginning to end. Everyone realizes that they can steal bits of money and other encrypted currencies, and it is well known that Bitcoin is a payment tool chosen by blackmailers, secret net participants and other thieves. In addition, encrypted currency theft and illegal transactions are too easy to achieve, and can not be traced back.n
nHowever, these challenges – and the challenges of regulating bitcores or any other block-based chain-based trading system – are due to the inherent centrality of the technology.n
nIn other words, to solve these problems, we have to give up the use of Bitcoin or block chain of the most important original intention.n
nBitcoin “selfish interests” or “51%” attacks. Because of its essential distributed form, any block-based chain-based trading system relies on the cooperation of most of its participants. If 51% of the participants decided to betray the remaining 49% of the participants, then a small number of parties can do nothing about it.n
nSome people even think that the impact of this problem is even worse – perhaps one-third of the participants will form a conspiracy group, and ultimately get control. Cornell University postdoctoral Ittay Eyal and his professor at Cornell University professor Emin Gün Sirer explained:n
nn”[Block-based Bitcoin] agreements may be exploited by those who want to be profitable, and once the system has changed the mode of operation that everyone was satisfied with before, it was no longer honest enough to stop the control currency The development of large-scale pool. “n
nnelectricity. For Bitcoin, it is well known that mining coins need electricity and require a lot of power, but this is often overlooked. In addition, any block-chain technology that uses the same amount of work-proof mechanism as the bit-coal mining will consume a lot of energy.n
nAlthough Bitcover enthusiasts have realized that power cost factors are mining economics, there are more problems. Even if 10% of the emerging block chain business model clamored to get attention to the smooth start, these models of power consumption will be huge, and these power consumption will continue to grow, do not see the end.n
nTherefore, even if the chain-based business model based on the chain of a firm foothold, then they will consume a considerable amount of energy, just from the air conditioning to exclude the exhaust gas is enough to cause the Earth Icecrown to melt.n
nSpeechfulness: Think of Bitcoin and Block Chain as a subversive innovation with great potential and the corresponding risks. We all want to focus on its potential, but it is also a foolish thing to be able to look at its potential risks.n
nIntellyx has released Agile Digital Transformation Roadmap, which provides a flexible digital conversion roadmap, advises the company on digital transformation and helps suppliers communicate their experiences. At the time of writing, any of the organizations mentioned in this article are not Intellyx customers.n

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