What’s the real story behind bitcoin’s interest rate?

This week, bitcoin’s development has reached a milestone stage. The price of bitcoin has successfully exceeded 50000 US dollars, and the highest price has reached 52000 dollars. Now, in fact, the claim that “it’s closer to $100000 than $0” is more accepted. With the bullish trend of BTC price trend penetrating into different areas of digital asset industry, the derivative ecosystem also reflects this. According to skew, BTC financing rates on some derivatives exchanges have recently soared to their highest levels since May June 2019. Although the average financing rate is still higher than the growth rate during this period, the current ratios are much closer. The increase of financing interest rate usually means that the number of bulls is far higher than the number of bears, and more bulls means that the collective market is more bullish than ever before for the price of the next stage. From the data below, we can see a bit of the trend of bitcoin, that is, the realized volatility is on the rise, but the implied volatility may be declining. Since the beginning of November, bitcoin volatility has risen steadily on the chart, and the implied volatility has shown a similar pattern. Since the beginning of January, although the RV index has continued to rise, the volatility expectation is still low, showing a trend to counter the expected volatility. Now, although this is particularly positive for floating pricing, there is also the possibility that prices will suddenly break down. In addition, bitcoin’s ATM volatility maturity structure also seems to point to the shrinking volatility space this year. This means that bitcoin’s volatility will rise or fall steadily from now on. But is the overall trend positive? It is worth noting that there is also a self contradictory indicator. According to santiment, when bitcoin exceeds $50000, the weighted sentiment has been quite negative. In fact, after BTC broke through the above level, along with the decline in the number of social contacts, the number of positive comments decreased. However, it is necessary to give a little thought to such developments. We believe that, in addition to those who have doubts about cryptocurrency, many cryptocurrency advocates may also be responsible for some less positive comments. The original text is from ambrypto and edited by blockchain knight. The English copyright belongs to the original author. Please contact the compiler for Chinese reprint.

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