When bitcoin hits a new high at the end of the year, will 2021 be a super bull market or a pause?

BTC set a new high again on the last day of 2020, BTC made another effort to break through the previous high, breaking through the $29000 barrier, with the highest value of 29300 US dollars, rushing towards 30000 dollars, trying to complete the feat of 30000 US dollars on the last day of the end of the year! In fact, ETH is ahead of BTC. About five hours before bitcoin’s breakthrough, ETH has already reached a new high of $758. However, bitcoin and Ethereum both fell back quickly after breakthrough. Therefore, the rise failed to drive the overall upward trend of the market. From the overall performance of mainstream currencies, most of them fell. As of the end of the article, only 21 out of the top 100 in market value rose and 79 fell, with a more obvious decline. However, the market sentiment is due to the breakthrough of bitcoin, and the greedy index has soared from 91 yesterday to 95, indicating that the market heat has been activated by the breakthrough of bitcoin again. At present, bitcoin’s own performance has continued to rise. According to the data, the number of transactions on the bitcoin network in December reached the second highest in history, second only to the bull market in 2017! After the adjustment of bitcoin network, the number of online transactions exceeded $170.57 billion in December, the second highest peak ever, with an increase of 25.7% compared with November, and November was the fourth highest trading volume after adjustment. The highest trading volume of bitcoin network chain last month occurred in the bull market in December 2017, when it peaked at $207.86 billion. As of today, this month’s trading volume is still $30.3 billion short of the record. At present, the focus on the market is whether BTC can break through $30000 at the last point. If it can, it will certainly lay a better foundation for next year’s super bull market. However, in addition to fomo sentiment, we can also see that bitcoin has made many breakthroughs. In the short term, both funds (institutional purchase), market transaction demand, and industry benefits are not sufficient, which makes it difficult to stimulate the market. Therefore, the ability to break through again is actually weakened. This has dropped rapidly since the breakthrough of 29000 today Substance. Regardless of all the fomo, bitcoin looks like it’s peaking in the short term, with overbought short positions coming within four hours, cryptocurrency analyst and trader Scott melker said on twitter. However, the general upward trend has not changed, the super bull market is still the consensus, bitcoin will continue to serve more people! Driven by the soaring price, bitcoin has begun to spread from institutional bull, and retail investors are increasingly interested in bitcoin. Many famous people and rich people have also put their eyes on bitcoin, which has opened a broad market for the development of the market. Cryptocurrency analyst Willy woo tweets that bitcoin has had 12 years of capital inflows and very little capital outflows, with the number of users doubling annually for 10 years. So far, about 2% of the world’s population has been affected by it. Next year, bitcoin will no longer be seen as a tulip bubble, and it will never be so cheap again. So, can bitcoin complete the feat of breaking through $30000 this year? Will the callback of bitcoin lead to a new bottom reading low? Will you clear the warehouse? Bull market high clearance, bear market low admission, this is the law of investment unchanged, therefore, clearance is inevitable. But choosing when to clear is the real test. Cryptocurrency, as a hedge against dollar weakness and inflation risk, broke out of circulation quickly this year. However, due to its speculative nature and boom and bust cycle, the effectiveness of bitcoin as an asset class is still in question. And regulatory concerns are also a broader factor for crypto investors. Therefore, while we see the broad prospect of bitcoin, the risk has not been removed. So, in the strong bullish market trend, should we choose the opportunity to realize or continue to hold, so as to gain greater opportunities in the future? In an interview with CNBC’s trading nation program, mark Newton, a representative of bitcoin’s “long bull faction” and founder and President of Newton advisors, said he might clear bitcoin in the next week or two. A stone stirs up a thousand waves, and the information that Newton may clear his position reveals a dangerous signal to bitcoin investors. In the face of bitcoin’s new record and good profits, should they choose to clear their positions and keep the existing profit effect? Let’s take a look at Newton’s clearing logic: Newton believes that according to the technical chart, the rise in bitcoin may pause in 2021. In his view, bitcoin has just broken through an all-time high, and the asset is still quite bullish in the medium term. “However, bitcoin’s upward momentum will not continue without interruption. My cyclical composite index shows that bitcoin’s short-term rally will peak in early January. ” He also said that bitcoin’s weekly chart and relative strength index showed that investors, especially institutional investors, were increasingly interested in bitcoin. At present, people’s search volume on Google for bitcoin has increased by about 750% year-on-year, but it is still not higher than the high level in 2017. Newton’s other chart (using three different bitcoin cycles, with a major period of 273 days) tracks changes in bitcoin prices, suggesting that the direction of bitcoin prices is about to change: “in those years in which bitcoin performed well in the fourth quarter, the rally is often reversed at the beginning of January. So I think the first quarter of next year will be a bargain hunting opportunity for investors. ” To sum up, Newton’s view is: bitcoin will suspend its rise in the short term, and there will be a large decline, about the first quarter of next year, but the long-term bullish has not changed! Then, according to Newton’s analysis, we can understand that in terms of operation, we can choose to clear the position at the latest high point, and then choose the appropriate low point in the first quarter of next year to re-enter, and start waiting for the super bull market! If the analyst is right, then selling first and then buying is undoubtedly the best operation to maximize profits; however, if there is no expected big drop and the bottom copy opportunity is lost, it is also possible to fall short of the super bull market behind! So, are we going to continue to hold positions, or do we want to gain more chips?

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