Who is the player behind bitcoin’s rise above $28000?

Source: since December 2020, the bitcoin has continued to rise. It took only 10 days for the unit price to rise from the $20000 level to the $28000 level. Around 19:00 on December 27, bitcoin broke through 28000 US dollars / piece, with a 24-hour increase of 13%. Even the insiders of the currency circle do not deny that the sharp rise of bitcoin is a big bubble. However, driven by the global liquidity, bitcoin has become a “rigid bubble”. However, compared with three years ago, this time is a little different. “It may be different from the speculation or speculation that you think. Speculation and speculation do exist, but not the main reason. The direct reason is the high net worth and the admission of institutional investors. Since the second half of this year, institutions such as MassMutual life insurance company and MicroStrategy, a business analysis company, have bought bitcoin. Meanwhile, PayPal, an online payment giant, and DBS, the largest commercial bank in Singapore, have announced that they will launch cryptocurrency payment services. At present, more than $6.9 billion of bitcoin is held by listed companies. ” William, chief research fellow at okex research, told first finance reporter. However, in the early years, the premium of crypto assets such as bitcoin came from “technology belief”. Today, with the expansion of negative interest rate assets and the large amount of global liquidity, all kinds of players have regarded bitcoin as “new gold”. How long this “bosha game” will last seems to be more related to liquidity. Financial institutions and listed companies have been pouring into the market for nearly three years. Recently, cryptocurrency has made a comeback. In addition to bitcoin, other encryption assets are also rising. You know, U.S. stocks are up nearly 70% from their lowest point after the crash in March this year, while bitcoin is up more than 350% from around $5000 at that time. When bitcoin broke the $20000 mark, first finance and economics reported that the entry of high net worth individuals and Wall Street institutions was the main force to promote this round of market. Nowadays, there is a growing trend of institutionalization. Many traditional wall street asset management institutions are still waiting to see, but hedge funds have long tried. Guggenheim partners, one of the institutional investors focusing on cryptocurrency, recently said it might invest up to 10% of its $5.3 billion macro Opportunity Fund in a bitcoin trust fund; hedge fund giant Paul Tudor Jones has joined the bitcoin investment trend. In addition, many listed companies have also begun to enter the market. According to bitcoin transactions, more than $6.9 billion of bitcoin is currently held by listed companies, which has brought about a boom in the bitcoin market. It is worth mentioning that there are some regulated trust products linked to bitcoin and Ethereum. It is understood that some Wall Street institutions, which are limited by compliance requirements and unable to directly invest in encrypted assets, have begun to lay out through such trusts. Among such trusts, gray trusts are the most popular this year. For example, the gray bitcoin trust (GBTC) is the largest crypto digital asset trust product under grayscale. GBTC fund is similar to ETF (Exchange Traded Fund), but there is no redemption mechanism. There is also a six-month lock-in period for the sale in the secondary market. GBTC’s primary market application is only for qualified investors. The third quarterly report shows that 80% of the clients are institutional investors (mainly hedge funds), so it is a good indicator for observing the inflow of institutional funds. The total position of GBTC has increased by 58.3% in less than half a year to close to 570000 bitcoins, which indicates that a large amount of institutional capital has begun to pour into bitcoin in the second half of this year. The deep-seated reason behind the massive purchase of bitcoin by traditional institutions under the environment of negative interest rate is the change of global macroeconomic situation this year. On the one hand, affected by the epidemic situation, the global economic recovery will slow down in the coming year; on the other hand, the European and American central banks have launched extremely loose monetary policies to push up inflation expectations in financial markets. Standard Chartered Bank mentioned earlier that the total balance sheet size of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan has exceeded $22 trillion, and we are witnessing the largest global fiscal expansion since World War II. However, the trend of this expansion may last until 2022, because the debt burden is too heavy and interest rates remain low so as not to cause fiscal problems for the government. In developed countries, the epidemic has also facilitated the organic coordination of monetary and fiscal policies. “In order to avoid the loss of nominal principal and the need to pursue higher returns, the need for investors to hoard cash has naturally evolved into the demand for gold and bitcoin,” William told first finance. Whether inflation will rise or not, people’s impulse to seek asset preservation and return is rising. At present, the US dollar nominal market value of the global negative yield bond of Barclays has expanded to nearly 17 trillion US dollars, a new high since this year and the highest level since September 2019. Ben Powell, chief investment strategist for the Asia Pacific region of beilaide think tank (BII), previously told ifnance that in the next five years, long-term treasury bonds of major developed countries are likely to maintain negative interest rates (with huge debt pressure), which will lead to great changes in the investment pattern, that is, more capital will be converted into equity assets. Of course, gold, a non interest bearing asset, is one of them. Today, in the eyes of many people, bitcoin is also regarded as the equivalent of gold. Da Hongfei, founder and CEO of onchain, told first finance and economics that in the course of more than ten years of development, bitcoin has gradually withdrawn from the competition with French currency and is more inclined to develop in the function of value reserve. In the future, bitcoin is more likely to be a form of reserve assets, similar to gold. However, the difference between bitcoin and gold is also very obvious. Gold has condensed the consensus of human beings on value for thousands of years. Bitcoin is based on cryptography and distributed network, anti censorship and easy to transfer. It has become an important new asset in the digital wave, but also has a huge bubble. Dahongfei also said that bitcoin is not the only type of crypto assets, and the army of encryption assets is continuously expanding. However, first finance and economics has also reported many times that bitcoin is not “gold”, but in the context of the liquidity feast, insiders believe that this “bosha game” may continue. For example, bitcoin’s extremely high volatility can’t match gold’s stable value storage function. Bitcoin rose 13 times in 2017, and then dived from about $20000 to around $3000 due to stricter regulation. In the past two years, fluctuations of several thousand dollars are very common. By contrast, the biggest flash collapse of gold this year is only about $50-100. According to statistics, the price fluctuation of bitcoin is about 10 times of that of gold and 4-5 times of that of stock market. Therefore, bitcoin is far less safe than gold. Moreover, bitcoin’s trading price has repeatedly experienced a staggering premium, such as bid ask spread of nearly 9% and exchange price 40% higher than its intrinsic value, which is almost unimaginable for gold ETF investors. In addition to the central bank, banks, other institutions and retail investors are holders of gold. “In contrast, the holding structure of bitcoin is not decentralized enough, and sometimes manipulation may occur. Although bitcoin can also be used to pay, it is only in limited scenarios. ” The above-mentioned currency circles told reporters that bitcoin has been regarded as a “bosha game” under the liquidity feast. The blockchain application has entered the “disenchantment stage”. Compared with the liquidity driven encryption asset feast, the blockchain application itself is entering the “disenchantment stage”, which is in sharp contrast to the “deification stage” of previous years. Earlier, it was believed that blockchain would be used to build a new generation of financial infrastructure, including clearing and payment. Compared with centralized credit guarantee mechanism, using blockchain can reduce the cost. The technical characteristics of blockchain, such as the data on the chain, which are difficult to tamper with and cannot be revoked, can play an important role in the supply chain, logistics, traceability and other industries. But in fact, the consensus of the industry today is that, although the traditional finance is inefficient, the low efficiency is often for compliance and risk control. In addition, for example, the central bank has become an effective centralized regulatory mechanism, and it is meaningless to transform it into a distributed and decentralized mechanism. After investigation, the reporter also found that, even in the appropriate scenario, the application of blockchain also has practical challenges. For example, in the field of automobile logistics supply chain, people from all walks of life thought that the advantages of blockchain are huge. Practitioners told reporters that the principle is that many carriers of automobile logistics are self-employed, and the toll, fuel, maintenance and driver’s wages of trucks are not small expenses. However, freight often has a long accounting period, so it is easy to have problems in capital turnover, which makes it difficult for business to continue to expand. Before that, it was very difficult for banks to reach these carriers. Firstly, the amount of loans was too small (tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of yuan). Secondly, it was difficult to conduct a special investigation on these loan applications. It was also difficult for carriers to provide accounts receivable certificates to banks and submit audit reports required for loans. In order to solve this problem, taking “automobile supply chain logistics service platform” as an example, through the chain management of vehicle logistics business related parties, automobile host manufacturers and logistics general contractors can issue orders and waybills online, and carriers at all levels can record business data such as operation handover voucher, settlement voucher and invoice online, and realize online reconciliation of upstream and downstream enterprises. Financial institutions can provide financial services for carriers according to the business data recorded on the chain. The blockchain is equivalent to increasing the credit of carriers, which makes banks dare to provide financial services for carriers. Generally, it can reduce the interest rate of bank loans from 15% to 18% to about 7%, and banks also reach more customers. However, “the embarrassing problem is that we don’t dare to let the poor enterprises go to the chain. The good enterprises may directly lend to them in the future. The blockchain does not have an indispensable position. Therefore, when we talk about industrial applications, we are not as enthusiastic as at the beginning.” Another business development person of blockchain technology enterprise told the first finance and economics reporter. It can be seen that the development of blockchain application is returning to reality from the “deification stage”. On the other hand, crypto assets are still enjoying the liquidity feast. William told first finance that for institutional investors, what matters is profit, not feelings like “bitcoin belief” or “blockchain revolution”. The risk that needs to be paid attention to is that after the vaccine comes into the market and the epidemic situation is gradually alleviated, with the economic recovery, monetary policy will gradually change from loose to moderate tightening. At that time, institutional investors are likely to sell bitcoin. William believes that before that, bitcoin will still maintain the main trend of rising on the whole. Of course, with the increasing price of bitcoin, the market volatility will gradually enlarge, and investors are not recommended to increase excessive leverage.

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