Author: Coin Ring cat
Bitcoin recently thriving, from early April to $4000 by the time of around 8000 dollars, more than a month over 2 times, accounting for 59.5% of the market value of the current bitcoin encryption currency, since April rose 10%, the currency market leading encryption.
This seems to indicate that the market gradually recovers, there are many factors affecting the price of bitcoin, policy, economy and technology, war or even the dark network trading activity will have an impact on the price, we put aside these factors, from the perspective of market cycle theory, discuss the influence on the half the price of bitcoin.
On the first half, you now need to know each bitcoin block output of 12.5 coins, and every four years halving production time, the next half block award will be changed to 6.25 bitcoin.
There is a coin ring, a new bull market will come after bitcoin in half, and it will be a new round of unprecedented bull market, why? According to the 13 and 17 data.
Bitcoin first half occurred in November 28, 2012, halved after bitcoin reached highest point after the first half 1175 dollars in 13 years in November 30th, which lasted 367 days.
But after 14 years and 15 years, entered a long bear market, of which 15 years in August reached $162 compared to the history of despair, the peak fell 7.25 times.
The second half occurred in July 9, 2016, in May 20th ushered in a wave of Dallas before halved from $430 up to $789.8, after half the peak in December 16, 2017 of $19891, which lasted 525 days.
The observation data found bitcoin second to go back to the 13 peak of 1175 dollars time is February 23, 2017, at an interval of 1181 days.
The current estimate of next half time is May 23, 2020, halving the distance is 374 days, which is still more than a year’s time, if calculated in accordance with the method of market cycle theory, half two times before the big bull market are open in the second half of next year.
Then the start time of the next round of the bull market should be in the second half of 2021.
Someone according to the bitcoin history made a half price and correlation model, according to the price will exceed $10 thousand under this model a bitcoin halved, even more than $100 thousand.
Of course, more than just make judgments based on past data, according to the data, the price of bitcoin and half the existence of high relevance, no one can predict the market accurately, after all, there are many factors affect the price, the following is to discuss the influence of other factors.
The policy for bitcoin will have a relatively large impact, but from a historical point of view if you simply put long time no money will not have much impact, refer to 13 years and 17 years of the seven ministries of the central bank policy document on the basic face of bad policy is seen as a positive circle in the currency. If the policy faces a major positive, it will rise.
Now for the negative impact of bitcoin policy there is a big one, the country banned virtual currency mining, most of the bitcoin is force from China, if once this happens, with the supervision, the miners only transfer the mine or shut down, that will lead to bitcoin, the whole network is straight down, the whole network will also face the risk of being attacked, once the 51% attack, the consequences will be very serious.
To deal with the uncertainty of the future economic downturn will seek funds on investment targets, whether the stock market or other investment market when the overall downward trend, people will come up with funds to invest in other areas of diversification, one of which is the new currency circle Hing Investment market.
The financial crisis in 13 years, the local people in order to protect their property is not governed by the government of Cyprus and the choice of bitcoin as an investment target to avoid the crisis is a classic example, in this economic crisis, a bank dominated and ZF currency will become one of the main people’s choice of the same. There are examples of venezuela.
At present the blockchain technology itself has been highly concerned about the whole world a lot of government and enterprises, including Facebook, IBM, Microsoft and other major Internet Co are conducting their own research, and in the globalization, the birth of emerging technologies often lead to national level competition, so the future of the blockchain above suspicion doubt.
One might argue that the block chain need not be “money”, but the technology itself, the chain will be the mainstream of public, private and chain alliance chain is small. Both high R3 alliance or Hyperledger limitations, not much development, also once because the members of the Alliance for the benefit and the right to speak on the tear forced the storm.
Microsoft recently launched a bitcoin based on identity to the center of the open source protocol, but it is still running in the test online bitcoin, according to the official statement in the test after the success of deployment to the main online bitcoin, the research direction in the future if successful, the Internet can use a unified ID.
Why include Microsoft, Facebook, JP Morgan and other giants turned to start the layout of the public why the chain, the reason is clear. So the public chain is the future, and as the mother of bitcoin blockchain, value storage currency circle recognized standard, the value of the future will certainly be higher.
Summary, this paper first from the perspective of market cycle analysis of reasons why people say half will bring the bull market, then from the policy side, the economic and technical point of view to describe the influence of the above factors to bitcoin, if you have other opinions, welcome at the end of the message area message.