Author: Martha card
Last weekend, Bloomberg said in an article that bitcoin prices were rising again, but it was hard to hide a disturbing fact that few people used bitcoins other than speculation.
Bloomberg’s argument is mainly due to a small survey by Chainalysis, a block chain data company. Only 1.3% of the bitcoin transactions in the first 4 months of 2019 came from merchants, which is basically the same as the previous two years.
For this reason, Bloomberg has thrown the pot to the HODL of bitcoin: “bitcoin has been widely publicized to make it believe that it can be a substitute for currency, but now it has formed a” Hodler culture “that encourages hoarding rather than consumption.
That is why bitcoin can’t go into daily payments and can’t be used by more people because Hodler is too much? I think what Bloomberg may have misunderstood about Hodler or the special currency.
Has Hodler hindered the development of bitcoin?
In the past ten years, bitcoin has not become a popular payment method, it has nothing to do with the quantity of Hodler, and it has no causal relationship with the behavior of buying and selling.
For hoarding people, they are concerned about prices, the higher the better; for those receiving payment, they are concerned not with price, but volatility, convenience and cost. Because of the existence of the lightning network, the latter two factors can be ignored, so volatility becomes a key factor.
I believe that any businessman who normally does business will not think much of the money he has just received, and will be beaten ten percent off in the next minute. Although there are many businesses that accept bitcoin payments, they usually choose to exchange bitcoins from bitcoin to cash to avoid losses caused by currency fluctuations.
More than Bloomberg, there are many people in the reality of “alternative currency to become the mainstream means of payment” as a sign of success or failure of bitcoin development.
Although the mainstream payment method can make bitcoin more mobile, but “hard to become a means of payment” is a big pit compared with the special currency.
At least, it seems that in the daily life, the use of bitcoin payment can not only provide a variety of options, but it is no more convenient than the mainstream payment methods such as Alipay and UnionPay (of course, transnational transfers and transfer of assets are no longer discussed).
If it is now artificially interfering with market options, it may be counterproductive, making bitcoin a lame thing.
So, even now that Starbucks, Amazon and Apple support bitcoin payment, it does not mean that bitcoin has been squeezed into the mainstream payment tools. At the very least, we need to put “bitcoin into a daily payment tool”.
Value storage or payment means?
In fact, bitcoin today is more like a value storage tool.
Venezuela is a good example. When a country has very high inflation and the depreciation of the French currency is serious, bitcoin will become an excellent hedge. Venezuela’s legal tender, Bolivar, now has nothing to do with waste paper. How can bitcoin fluctuate again, and it is impossible to achieve a depreciation rate of 10000000% a year?
The reason why more and more people join bitcoin HODL group is because they believe that the price of bitcoin will continue to rise in the future, although there will be no change in magnitude within one or two years, but five or ten years will probably reach an unattainable price.
It needs to be clearly pointed out that the 21 million ceiling is not the main reason why bitcoin has become a means of value storage. Rather than deflationary monetary policy, the centralization, corruption and tampering of bitcoin is the key to protecting bitcoin as a valuable storage tool.
But will bitcoin always be a “value store”? The answer is also negative. Accurately, bitcoin will have two functions of value storage and payment in the future.
The two are not opposites. Gold as a value store also has the function of payment in history, and bitcoin as a value storage tool can also help it become a payment tool. It can be said that only when most of the people in a society recognize the value storage of bitcoin, bitcoin can become one of the mainstream payment tools.
In this article, Bloomberg said: “the future of bitcoin, which is conceived by China, can be used in daily transactions, buying coffee or paying for car rental.”
And no matter what Zhong Ben has never said, bitcoin has been developing for ten years. Today’s form is the result of market choice. Although bitcoin is a point to point electronic cash system, it does not necessarily have a “payment function” like cash, which represents the success of bitcoin.