Source: ye Tan Finance Wen / Ye Tan, a woman of Finance and economics, has a vicious tongue and a kind heart. The market opens on the first day after the lunar new year. Sandalwood, want to have a happy, leisurely holiday. Just seven days is enough to make the market change. Since this year, the number of new cases per week has fallen by nearly half, from more than 5 million new confirmed cases in the week of January 4 to 2.6 million in the week of February 8. American bold consumption hit the biggest rebound in seven months. The general environment has not changed. The money is still loose, and the Federal Reserve will continue to release water. On February 17, the Federal Reserve FOMC released the minutes of the January monetary policy meeting. Fed officials believed that the U.S. economy was “far from” reaching the target, and reiterated that it would maintain loose policy. This is expected. Whatever the argument about inflation versus inflation, monetary easing and shifting costs are good for Americans. Chetan ahya, a global economist at Morgan Stanley in the United States, said the recession caused by the epidemic has cost American households $400 billion in income, but they have received more than $1 trillion in transfer income (even before the end of December and the coming round of stimulus measures). American households have now accumulated $1.5 trillion in excess savings, which will rise to $2 trillion, or 9.5% of U.S. GDP, once the additional fiscal package takes effect in early March. As early as February 6, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the budget plan adopted by the Senate, paving the way for a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. Some people think that the inflation risk is too high. Lawrence Summers, an economist who is treasury secretary of the Clinton administration and chief economic adviser to the Obama administration, published an article saying that the size of the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan is three times the expected output gap of the U.S. economy. In terms of family income, if the breadwinner of a family with $1000 a week’s pre tax income is fired, the family’s income in the next six months will reach $30000, more than the normal $22000, through regular unemployment insurance, a special unemployment cash benefit of $400 a week and a tax credit. The new finance minister Yellen said a word and went back. The economic challenge is the biggest risk. Even if there will be inflation in the future, we have a way. With savings and vaccines, Americans are bold in spending. In January, U.S. retail sales recorded the largest increase in seven months. According to the data released by the US Department of Commerce on February 17, the overall retail sales in the United States increased by 5.3% month on month. All major categories grew sharply, down 1% in December. Department store + 23.5%, former value – 3.7%; electronic + 14.7%, former value – 6.5%; furniture + 12%, former value – 0.7%; e-commerce + 11%, former value – 7.3%; food and drink + 6.9%, former value – 4.6%; gas station + 4%, former value + 6.5%; food and beverage + 2.4%, former value – 1.4%. This brings about great changes in the market. Since the economy has improved and money has been released, funds are not interested in low-yield bonds. Instead, they speculate in risky assets, such as futures, bitcoin, and so on. The risk yield of US Treasury bonds rose sharply, breaking through 1.3 at one time, reaching a new high since February last year. On February 17, the U.S. Treasury released the latest international capital flow report (TIC). In December 2020, foreign private investors had a net outflow of $600 million. In the past 33 months, large official institutions including global central banks have sold us $1.1675 trillion of US debt in 28 months, and US $17.5 billion in December. China and Japan, the two big buyers of US Treasury bonds, have reduced their holdings of US $5.5 billion in December 2020. As the largest overseas creditor of the United States, in July 2020, Japan’s U.S. debt holdings reached a new high of $1.293 trillion, selling US debt for five consecutive months, with a total reduction of 36.2 billion US dollars. This is a symbol that the global economy will ease after the financial turmoil, and investors don’t want to put too many U.S. debt safety belts on themselves. Why do we have to do it when the U.S. debt is too expensive and the yield is still low? However, when the yield on the 10-year Treasury note exceeds 1.5 and is profitable, money will flow back into the bond market. Will bitcoin appreciate 50000 times in ten years and oil prices may triple in a year? Bitcoin, launched in 2009, has appreciated by 5100000% in ten years, creating a miracle in the history of human investment. It is more crazy than tulip bubble and Nanhai bubble. During the Spring Festival, bitcoin exceeded $50000. As we’ve said for a long time, it’s not uncommon for bitcoin to exceed $100000. When bitcoin and other crypto digital markets are cultivated and global funds enter the bitcoin market, it is the time for wolves to attack. All kinds of investment institutions endorse bitcoin. In February, Bank of New York Mellon said it would treat bitcoin like other financial assets. MasterCard said it would incorporate bitcoin into its payment network this year. Tesla Motors said it had bought the $1.5 billion cryptocurrency and planned to accept bitcoin as a payment method. Financial institutions’ endorsement of cryptocurrency is essentially to make the market of digital currency bigger. The capacity is too small to cut leeks. Like the global real estate financial products before 2008, bitcoin and other digital currencies are the most popular investment varieties at present. Why chose bitcoin as the contemporary tulip? Bitcoin has the flavor of the Internet era, and its scale and technology are controllable, which will not impact the status of the US dollar. For leeks, products around digital currency are attractive enough. This is the reason why international gold has fallen sharply, but cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin have gone through the dust. Here are the soaring cryptocurrencies, which have become a huge speculative market. Crude oil, copper prices, stock market and bitcoin rose sharply; domestic commodities and stock market were still rising varieties. After the Spring Festival, another noteworthy phenomenon is the surge in international oil prices. International oil prices hit a 13 month high, oil and gas concept stocks strengthened collectively, petrochemicals oil services and Tongyuan oil Limited trading, and Hengtai EPP, potential Hengxin, Sinopec and PetroChina ranked first. On the morning of February 18, the oil sector as a whole rose 4.03%. Just the day before, on February 17, the main contract of us NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (CL) closed at US $61.72/barrel, up 2.63%, setting a new high in more than a year. The main contract of international benchmark ice Brent crude oil futures (oil) closed at US $64.78/barrel, up 1.97%. On April 20, 2020, crude oil treasure fell below zero yuan, and crude oil began to rise sharply. I don’t believe that there is a real market-oriented crude oil price. The rise in crude oil prices is mainly due to the reduction of oil production in oil producing countries and the decline of stocks in the United States and China. The fuse is the coldest winter in the history of Texas in the United States at minus 17 degrees. Since April last year, OPEC + has been reducing production. In January this year, OPEC + reached an agreement. Most members kept their output unchanged in February and March. Saudi Arabia voluntarily reduced output by 1 million barrels / day, and may continue to reduce production in April. JPMorgan forecasts that the international crude oil price will rise to $100 a barrel, the highest level since 2014. Is the current economic expectation likely to support $100 oil prices? wait and see. The inventory has not fallen much, so much so that we can’t be so aggressive. Analysts surveyed by Reuters estimate that US crude oil inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels in the week ending February 12. Before the cold wave, the United States produced about 11 million barrels of oil a day. Michael Lynch, President of strategic energy & economic research, believes that the oil market “may only reduce production by about 10 million barrels, and the U.S. inventory has been about 50 million barrels higher than normal, so the impact will not be significant. What’s more, the reduction in refined oil production caused by refinery shutdown has pushed up the price of refined oil. ” In my opinion, it is very likely that oil producing countries and investment institutions have long started to long for crude oil. After harvesting a big wave in April last year, we made another wave band and waited until $70 to harvest another wave. One figure is enough to show that hedge funds’ long bets on commodities have reached their highest level in 10 years. A real conspiracy. In addition, there is a large category of products, which are very sensitive to industrial production, that is copper. The international copper price is close to the peak since May 2012. I don’t want to say anything. It’s straight up from March last year. I haven’t even breathed. In 2020, the prices of industrial raw materials will rise sharply. In 2021, depending on the posture of currencies and commodities, they will continue to rise. What is the impact on ordinary people? Prices go up, house prices go up. House prices in the United States are eye-catching. The S & P / CS20 housing price index of major cities in the United States, released at the end of January, has an annual rate of 9.1%, the highest since mid-2014. According to the data of zillow, a US real estate consulting firm, the median housing price in the United States has risen to a record high of 266000 US dollars in December 2020, up 8.4% year-on-year. It is expected that the median house price will continue to rise by 10% this year. If you want to buy a house in the United States, you should start a few years ago. So, do you want to buy property in big cities in China? Maotai down is nothing to the stock market confidence unchanged, the first day of the Spring Festival, bull stocks trend collapse, nonferrous metals and other momentum. Although all the other indexes except Shanghai stock index have opened high and gone low, for long-term investors, short-term volatility is not worth mentioning. All three factors are favorable. The money is still buying, but the plate is changing. A total of 1085.189 billion yuan was traded in the two markets, 483.547 billion yuan in Shanghai and 601642 billion yuan in Shenzhen. The transaction volume of the two markets exceeded trillion yuan, with active trading volume. When the market transaction falls below 800 billion, we can feel the fortune again. Northbound funds are sensitive nerve endings. The net purchases of northbound funds were 5.073 billion yuan, including 2.672 billion yuan of Shanghai Stock connect and 2.402 billion yuan of Shenzhen Stock connect. There are good opportunities for manufacturing and entertainment. Americans are bold in consumption, while Chinese enterprises are bold in manufacturing. Manufacturing and export will continue to be popular. Export enterprises should worry about the falling dollar and rising transportation prices, not customers. Because of the re inflation expectations, the nonferrous metals and other sectors have risen since last year. Why can’t high tech, medicine and liquor fall? In fact, iconic funds have retreated from these sectors since the end of last year. High tech is still the direction of future development. Now it rises too fast, and there is room for falling. Liquor plate also has to fall out of space, Maotai can go up to 2600, down to 2400, nothing. We can’t let all the capital of the stock market be invested in the white bar. The academicians all comment on the people of Maotai. It’s not reasonable in any case. It makes people laugh at Chinese academicians. Press down real estate, financial assets are essential goods, foreign capital will flow in. China’s stock market ushered in a good time for slow bull, which we firmly believe in.