2 million bitcoin mining machine hidden, bitcoin was a catastrophic crisis

Author Tao Jun Levin.

The source, Levin road block chain (laidaoblockchain)

Since November, bitcoin from around $6500 fell to near $3800, bitcoin market capitalization of $113 billion 600 million has shrunk to $67 billion, a drop of about 40%, the overall decline in the money market about encryption from $200 billion to $125 billion, the digital currency industry into the winter period.

However, these are reflected in the currency price, related industry behind it was hit, typical and direct is the mining industry. From the data, November 1st bitcoin the whole network is about 60.4225E/S, the same period of the same algorithm, the whole network is a bit of cash for 3.5391E/S, up to 27 bitcoin the whole network is down to 36.8556E/S, a bit of cash the whole network is down to 2.1067E. Two less than a month’s time, the loss is about 25E/S. (PS:1E=1000P, 1P=1000T)

In the new mainstream bitcoin mining machine S9i parameter calculation, rated hashrate about 14T/S, is equivalent to the loss of force: 25000000/14=178 million increase in mining market natural offset part of the machine to stop mining at least 2 million taiwan. Prior to the fired high price machine 20 thousand S9i to count, the 1 moon disappeared 2 million *2 vehicle market =400 100 million RMB, at present, this machine bit official quotation for 3000 yuan, in November a total of 60 million RMB hardware does not disappear, and the power consumption is reduced (power consumption is the main mining cost).

If not through calculation, including the loss of currency price, market capitalization, and a series of digital currency related industries, you might not know how big the market is, don’t know what happened for nearly a month, perhaps we can only experience the currency price has dropped sharply. The positions of the insiders continued losses, outsiders have laughed at the digital currency is POND’S scam, of course, these are not important, because everyone will naturally different cognitive deviation, but can not be ignored is then continued to fall, really cause a devastating blow to the digital currency market. (at least will be reflected in the price)

But why do you say that? The above mentioned, the calculated stress and bitcoin loss within 1 months is about 25E/S, the loss of work force, basically has stopped bitcoin network to make contribution, provide force of mine recovery cost is also because after resell. The bear under the second-hand machine is very cheap, a few hundred dollars is already a good shot, because bitcoin mining machine basically is the chip machine, only a simple calculation with no violence, he, in addition to mining basically is scrap iron. These mills once after the system of cheap recovery, there is a considerable risk of digital currency market.

We must know that the bitcoin network is well run for 10 years, is to the center, can not be tampered with, open and transparent, which is essentially a non state trading trust can be achieved through a series of means, which does not need credit endorsement to the deal. Assuming the use of bitcoin transactions, the data are always problems, such as transaction records are not packaged on the chain is also trading within a short time can not confirm, unable to complete the transaction, this form of attack called “Tibet block attack”; such as a transfer, can repeatedly send fee: A 1BTC, 1BTC to B, and to C 1BTC this attack, called double attack; for example, bitcoin network transfer speed is very slow, very congested, the transfer fee is very high, this type of attack is called “empty block attack”, more than 51% is referred to as force attack.

Once the bitcoin network appears many times these problems basically will be faced with a crisis of confidence, the reaction in the price of no more than 50% decline is basically impossible.

The 25E/S operator can do what? We can see recently BCH bifurcation, BCH bifurcation for BCH ABC, BCH SV, is currently the two were 2.059E/S, 0.84E/S. Is 25E/S they are Shijiershiduo times, these two branches can destroy the BCH at any time, so the two currencies are not safe; let us look at the total market value of more than 50% digital currency bitcoin, is currently in force is 36.8556E/S 25E/S, accounting for the current entire bitcoin network 67.8%, distributed network based on the principle of the 51% attack, but also can take bitcoin.

But, in the end there is no system of professional institutions to do such attacks, the key is to see there is no motivation, that is far greater than the cost of evil whether gains, following a series of calculations.

At present 36.8556E/S is the half of that is 18.42E/S, bitcoin S9i machine 1 million 420 thousand sets about 1350W power consumption, according to bitcoin, the official price 3000 yuan, 42 million 600 thousand yuan, of course, in accordance with the old machine recycling system mentioned above, itself has better field, so the cost of hardware is reduced by at least half above, we assume that the hardware cost is 20 million. In addition to confirm the mechanism of bitcoin is 6 blocks of a transaction. Each block, 10 minutes, 6 or 1 hours, with 51 of the theoretical stress after 2 hours or so will be able to complete a double, electricity consumption of 2 hours for 2*1.35*142 million *0.4 yuan / kWh =153.36 million yuan. So the double cost about 2153.36 – 44 million 133 thousand and 600.

Assume that a double bitcoin led to a 20% decline (in fact, if it happens, fell far more than 20%), but the attacker gains double, such as 100 BTC as 200 BTC, to the current bitcoin price 2.8 $1000-2000 calculation, bitcoin can recover the cost of Flos lonicerae. If the futures contract profit, OK 20 times the contract, 20% fall is 4 times earnings, 100 times leverage Bitmex is 20 times earnings, with 1000 bitcoin worth 28 million yuan net profit 84 million, 532 million short.

Gains in terms of cost, should be the major institutions have the motivation to do it, as BCH ABC basically 10 a fraction of the costs can be achieved a similar proportion of earnings, has passed the safety threshold, problems may occur at any time.

Continuous stress reduction leads to the decrease of the security model of bitcoin, reduce the work force if people will be hoarding of the whole digital money market caused by disaster, the only way is to change this state, currency prices, stimulate the market enthusiasm, let more people involved, and more and more is added to maintenance of bitcoin network security, this positive will make bitcoin network more robust.

So, we can conclude that currency prices are the main factors of bitcoin network security support, until the network is large enough, the time cost is much higher than the center of evil institutions could convert the first step when bitcoin to take the world to the center of the currency, such a bitcoin is a child, and a lot of room for growth. On the contrary, when bitcoin is not strong, everywhere there is a risk, just as now, if it continues to fall, will bitcoin security model is gradually reduced, the investment risk will be increasing.

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