Editor’s note: This article from the Orange Book: (ID:chengpishu), author: Yan Hao, the daily planet Odaily authorized reprint.
The debate in the traditional context of the elite. I watched the video about 1.5 hours after finishing and decided to retell the video content, and add some of their own views.
Drive the reason I write two: 1. this is a fairly straightforward blockchain criticism to say the thinking process of speech rather than give the conclusion. 2. both the speech and debate the content also leads to some of my thoughts.
Maybe we can listen to the voice of the opposition. Affirmative views can click to read the original. The last free debate is coming next week.
The background of the debate both sides
A16Z Crypto partner Kathryn Haun
A16Z Crypto two Chris Dixon general partner, and Kathryn Haun, Chris Dixon has become very famous, compared to Kathryn is new.
Before she joined A16Z for 10 years in the United States federal judge, but do not generally the case, for example, sued Wells Fargo (Buffett investment), the working group to create a digital currency union, integrated various law enforcement departments investigating digital financial aspects of criminal activities, she participated in the world currency such as encryption blockbuster first case Mt.Gox (Mentougou), Silk Road in the case of theft, extortion and other related secret service agents in a series of cases.
But the magic is in the process of investigation, she realized the blockchain magic, gorgeous first in Professor Standford’s course, then add Coinbase, A16Z Crypto has recently become a partner. This experience, it is “Chunk” in the hundreds of millions of American prosecutors turned from Bobby. Perhaps the “” billions of writers in the last few seasons will use this material as inspiration. This is hardly accepted the temptation of new capital or technology attractive.
Nobel laureate economist, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman (Paul Krugman)
Krugman, American economist and New York Times columnist, currently professor of economics at the University of New York, is the new Keynes economics, 2008 Nobel Laureate in economics. Had accurately predicted the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
Krugman has long been famous, is the Red Net economist and writer on Twitter has 4 million 490 thousand followers, writing a column in the perennial New York Times, often blogs and Twitter and Trump each other.
Krugman bitcoin currency and encryption criticism and skepticism, as early as in 2013 the author believes that bitcoin is a bubble, and were compared with no value.
The form of controversy
In September 2018, by a data center in Mexico in Mexico City hosted a debate, both Catherine and Krugman Hahn, is their first single on their own point of view, and then discuss and answer questions from the audience.
The following is Paul Krugman (Paul Krugman) speech content
Krugman does not use the PPT, the stroll with speech, outlined as follows.
A Big Quesiton: Really what problem does cryptocurrency solve?
1. the history of money
Money is the lubricant is used for trading facilities. The history of money is to reduce visibility, reduce the friction of the history.
Barter metal coins (note – > – > – > > with gold and silver endorsement) currency cheque / credit card / mobile payment
Barter: cow for sheep
Metal coins: easier to exchange and verification, of course with more cumbersome, easily stolen or robbed. In fact people use other methods to do long-distance trading. In seventeenth Century the bank lending as the main transaction, mainly. For example, you are a businessman in Italy want to do trading in Belgium, you can take a letter to Bruges banker bankers in Florence, told gold in which, while the agent can be exchanged in another trade place. This system is effective but still more trouble you carry is paper is a promise to pay according to the requirements of gold.
Note: less resource consumption. The request must have enough gold and silver.
Pure currency: government endorsement. 1) the government can guarantee 2) can be used to pay tax legal tender
Check / credit card / mobile payment: Digital
At each stage of currency, we use fewer and lower transaction costs to resources. The general trend is toward cashless society progress, money is only a unit of account.
This coin appeared encryption (only discuss bitcoin), a large number of resources required for computing power and energy. From a technical point of view it may be for the future practice, but from the perspective of monetary economics is us back down with the most advanced computer science and technology 300 years ago, so why would we want to repeat in digital form of metal money all the disadvantages, to solve the problem of what?
Is not to say that the digital currency is not good, there are a lot of digital payment form. And soon there will be in the form of digital currency countries, Sweden has established a complete plan to get rid of cash. So the question is not aimed at digital.
2. goodwill is a kind of social technology
Maybe we do not trust the government, higher inflation would have, but according to the traditional definition of inflation: more than 50% inflation as high inflation each month, even if we follow more than 50% per year as inflation standard. In fact, inflation is less and less. At present only in southern Sultan and venezuela. If the standard up to 30% a year, the list of many. But in fact most of the government did not abuse printing money.
Here you have to say under the monetary system is how to ensure the construction, by the middle of the man-machine operation, they believe that commitment is to maintain their own goodwill. Because goodwill to ensure their market position. A certain degree of goodwill (reputation) is a kind of social technology. Economics Regulation of commercial activities, through the incentive to one-time profit after the leave, change repeatedly and reliably provide services (Play the repeated games).
In fact, not only for the money, all economic activities have similar incentives to encourage people to work continuously. This is the so-called persistence mechanism (enduring institutions).
This is the set of social technology mechanism encryption interesting (Social Technology of currency repeated games and reputation) away, and tries to establish a set of complete operation in the algorithm mechanism to ensure that all our needs and.
3. technical problems or political / social issues
High inflation never occurred alone, always accompanied by political and social unrest. For example, Venezuela, in addition to high inflation, a broader and more serious events. The coin is not encrypted put food store. Venezuela is more serious political problems rather than the inflation problem, cannot be solved by technology.
Intermediary institutions questioned bring high costs, such as cross-border remittance, I suspect that this is not the bank’s technical problems, but the government forced the border policy. I also think the mobile phone roaming charges, why you can not be free to travel thousands of kilometers charges, and the data will suddenly need to charge? This has nothing to do with technology, this is the wrong approach of the government.
This is exactly the technical problems or social problems, even if the money can bypass the encryption operation, you will find that the government will repair the regulatory or against you, your imagination will bring freedom to the blockchain all gone.
In fact, the high cost of running the bitcoin, both consumption or transaction costs of mining. The reason is because of the high cost of mining is designed so that the design of a high degree of difficulty, the ultimate prize calculated people. If Silicon Valley engineers came up with lower cost to the 1/10, people will stampede in panic buying bitcoin, it will fall into a similar trap (Malthus technology improved only increased the population but did not improve people’s living standards), improve the technology (reducing mining cost) only increased the number but did not improve the value of mining.
For transaction costs, a person’s income is another person’s expenditure, it is difficult to imagine a system needs to continue to encourage nodes to do validation, but does not increase the cost of a lot. I am not from the expert’s point of view but from the view of logic. One possibility is the introduction of a variety of encryption currency, existing encryption currency prices collapsed, no encryption coins can dominate the market, why it is still of great value?
5. bitcoin has value only because people believe it has value
People sometimes think of something valuable but not very useful. Such as gold, gold is not money, not a medium of exchange, but it is an asset, has a very high value, people love memory, gold is not the only asset. According to the statistics in 1980 and the proportion of dollars in cash than did not decline, and even rise. According to the statistics of 2/3 large denomination $$50, $100 is not in the United States, as assets in foreign people do not even have to store the dollar, dollar transactions.
I might be persuaded to point is that bitcoin could become a store of value units like gold, but gold can be used for dental or jewelry, large denomination dollars can be replaced with small denomination or consumption, value support and bitcoin no foundation, what things must be very clear by bitcoin in five years or ten years? Bitcoin has value only because people believe it has value (Bitcoin Is valuable only in sofar as people continue think it is valuable).
If there is a day in the morning to see the dollar not worth a penny, the tax department will tell you can also use your tax dollars. But if bitcoin is not worth a penny, it’s really not worth. This does not necessarily happen, but I doubt it will be the price of zero, because I didn’t see what reason it has value. For the generalized crypto currency, I tend to be agnostic. Money is our existing technology encryption technology is the current expensive alternatives, we spent continuous trading can be established for nearly a century, so why should we do this?
This is a similar activity in the last few weeks I attended, use a activities. They also told me a lot about the blockchain, you can imagine that if you take the prescription in pharmacies, you can check whether the medicine they say. But I have a lot to worry about the drug, even if your doctor’s prescription is for the medication in my options is very low. Here I want to hear some persuasive examples but I’m pretty sure the point is that so far, no signs of encryption can be monetary currency. If you are from the romantic idea of the step back, it looks at the money in the economy a step backwards, I don’t think this is what we really should do.
I don’t read Krugman’s column on his economic ideas and politics are poorly understood. Must be less than the Krugman understanding of encryption currency.
Krugman said it is still relatively moderate, summed up is the following:
As the representative of bitcoin as a currency currency if encryption, is a historical retrogression
Repeat service intermediary institutions (Play repeated games) is a kind of social technology
Encryption currency valuable just because I believe, without the support
No bank wants to solve the crypto currency needs of people, high inflation and cross-border payments, actually not only economic and technical problems, but the social and political issues.
These points can be refuted one by one, the Internet has a lot of similar articles, I will not repeat it again.
In addition to bitcoin although the market value of the largest, only as one of the earliest coins encryption, the use of relatively simple. Other coins have a wider role in encryption. Krugman also admitted agnostic attitude to these he.
I want to single currency could become encryption currency and replace existing structure say middle machine. I think sometimes or not technical point of view from the angle of economics, is a simple letter and do not believe the problem. Is the problem of human nature. The people think that this is the value as unalterable principles, self-evident.
I agree with the intermediary institutions Krugman said is to run for a long time the social technology is indeed difficult to replace. But this does not mean that this technology is suitable for the future development of the human society, but revenue is very high, alternative social costs are high. You can contrast
On the left is the successful operation, the right side is the belief that better encryption currency.
If you believe that humanity will be observed, although the network security incidents, many people still use the password and password simple; have questioned how many people really spend time and money to protect digital identity and their assets? How many people would be more dependent and trust a platform rather than yourself?
If you believe that human evolution, you will see the digital generation has been born, the virtual world is greater than the physical world (does not mean good things), machine, machine data exchange and the transaction will be far more than human beings, human – machine.
Finally, a say, several techniques throughout this era, seems to be against humanity, maybe it is near the singular point, the development of technology is too fast, the overall structure of human society and can’t adapt to keep pace. Maybe it is because we have been standing at an important crossroads, the choice and the change will be so difficult and costly.
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