Editor’s note: This article from the vernacular block chain, author: five fireball ‘Daily Planet unauthorized release.
“The leader, my heart is dead……” Feeble soldier groaned.
EOS fell into the dog……”
“It is not the only EOS in the fall, all in the fall, okay?” I rolled my eyes.
“I almost lost faith blockchain……” The warrior has qiruoyousi.
“That’s because you believe the money, not the blockchain!”
Crash this week, is estimated to have a lot of buddy tears. Because in addition to the BCH bifurcation, what seems to be no big bad. Before there are Bakkt and ETF for approval next month is expected to pass the good expectations, what waterfall on the waterfall?
Block chain industry WeChat group, have spread panic atmosphere. Those who in the BTC price of nearly $20000, ETH price of $1400, vowed that if BTC can return to $6000, ETH to $300, a real bargain hunters Zaguomaitie, all gone.
Now when BTC was more than 4000 U.S. dollars, ETH is only about $130, double 11 big discount Carnival blockchain, how no one? The majority of the blockchain faith collapsed.
In November 21st, Zhao Changpeng in the foreign social media documents, give us faith to recharge. There is 1BTC in 2015 for $600, selling hunters. Who cut into the hillside, BTC fell to $200! However, he still alive?
Then, by means of this wave of collapse, we look at the “future” of the blockchain, see if you can get back the faith.
This is the first today, we, from the point of view of their own history block chain angle, angle and angle of transaction funds aspects, to look at the status of the blockchain.
Next Sunday will push the second part, we will from the macroscopic angle, angle, angle and operating data learning point of view, to see the blockchain future.
The 01 block chain point of their own
If the last 9 months the waves crash, only affected by the policy, many experienced investors happy hunters, so this week Zhebo plummeted, really let this group of old people in the circle of despair.
The reason is that, if this time last year, and with EOS as the representative of the “chain 3” main line is worth looking forward to it, so this year, at least has no new concept of speculation or what can be worth looking forward to.
Some time ago had STO raise a Babel of criticism of haven’t started, like, had been “cool”;
The etheric Fang Plasma expansion, postponed to 2019;
Star project IPFS main line, postponed to 2019;
Another high-profile cross chain star Polkadot, the original plan is to wait until the 2019 was on the line.
At present, the public square on the etheric chain boss live only a few thousand. This year the main stumbling start, known as the “ether Fang killer” EOS, but tens of thousands of daily living. But there is speculation that DApp might be the result of a number of brush, the real user EOS with Ethernet should almost square.
In the entire industry, the ever popular public chain, has become such a scene. Many of the other main new chain, basically in the “cool” No one shows any interest in.
In other words, the blockchain, after 10 years of development, due to various reasons, still remain in the “circle since Hi” stage, which for the human society, the change of life is still very little.
10 years ago, bitcoin was born, was so overwhelmed with admiration for: is a world anti -! Now, it is still unable to return to this world is not its age. And it derived from thousands of thing, it is still difficult to fly into the homes of ordinary people. This can not let people cool?
Familiar with IT industry knows, 20 years ago, our IP address has been declared exhausted, then IPv6 (Internet Protocol Version IETF 6 “, it is designed to replace the current version of IP protocol in the next generation of IPv4 IP protocol, which can be the whole world every grain of sand on a web site.) turned out, claiming to solve the problem of lack of Internet address. Over the past 20 years, our IPv4 (Internet Protocol version fourth of Internet Protocol, the first widely used, the current composition of Internet technology based protocol) is still alive, through a variety of techniques without a pause life, is still no IPv6.
The reason is very simple, from the operator to the enterprise, few people have the power to spend money to upgrade. Now can use, why are time-consuming and expensive to upgrade?
Any new technology, in the whole society to large-scale popularization, mostly from the business side, and then the general public. At the same time, the new technology, but also can improve production efficiency and reduce the cost of enterprise (the rapid popularity of cloud computing is one of the best examples), so as to spread rapidly in the whole society. IPv6, it seems that these two points do not conform to.
At present, the block chain industry, also seems to face the same embarrassment.
However, bitcoin itself is a great experiment of the most successful in the history of mankind “. So, with the eyes of the past and experience, whether it is appropriate to this emerging technology in measuring and evaluating the underlying technology chain block behind bitcoin, needs to be negotiated.
02 historical perspective
As the saying goes, one can know the history.
70, 80, the dial experienced the Internet bubble, presumably for 2000 years of stocks, especially in technology stocks collapse. Here is the biggest companies in 1999 market:
10 years ago, 6 technology companies.
Microsoft in 1999, the market value is more than $600 billion;
At the beginning of 2000, the 5000 break point, then the bubble burst, the road falls to 2000, among many stocks overnight become a piece of paper;
Even the famous Amazon, its share price from more than 100 points down to single digits, fell more than 90%;
The largest network equipment supplier CISCO Cisco, from 80 points down to 13 points, down to 84%;
China NetEase, listed in June 2000, opened to $15.5, in the next 1 years, the share price fell 64 cents, the NASDAQ is directly suspended.
Is not looking at a little familiar? And now we have the blockchain circle like? Has fallen to 90%, or even more than 95%.
What happened, a lot of people already know.
According to last year’s high count, Amazon shares soared nearly a thousand times, NetEase 2000 times, it is often used to recharge the blockchain investor belief”.
But don’t forget, have unlimited scenery from Yahoo billion market capitalization, after just a few years, the final price of $4 billion 830 million acquisition by Verizon.
AOL Instant Messenger once the dominant (AOL Instant messaging), after 2000 years to $181 billion acquisition of Time Warner, but at a price of $4 billion 400 million acquisition by Verizon.
Even if you have faith on the block chain and bitcoin, you still need to pay attention to, in CoinMarketCap 35 years ago, the market value of the top ten encryption currency, now mostly disappeared.
Now the top ten encryption currency, perhaps in 35 years, will disappear a lot of familiar figure.
03 capital angle
At present, many people feel rather baffling on this week’s collective slump, there are some people who want to find a vent for his resentment, even a scapegoat.
As a result, people took the fall point to the BCH bifurcation, at CSW BTC led to the decline in the overall market zapan. It has been accused of Wu Jihan said, was not the bifurcation of BCH, open the bifurcation of the head after BTC last year, dozens of students a “son”, almost all the garbage, stuck with a lot of people. Now, the BCH bifurcation and bifurcation, no peace upsets the market. There are even groundless talk said, because of the reason of this bifurcation took users to exchange currency short zapan, but can not find the relevant evidence.
But at least it can be confirmed that the data do not lie.
If you have the impression of the transaction data of last year, both bull and bear, little volume will have a single exchange more than 10% of the total, after all, there are thousands of exchange market.
That day and the Wednesday crash in November 21st, data is this:
See, the trading volume BitMEX exchange BTC market accounted for almost half of Jiangshan, reached 67 billion dollars.
From the financial point of view, there is a possibility: “regular army” is ready for admission or admission.
A lot of game player started from last year: Wall Street fantasy “regular army” to quickly approve admission; ETF; NASDAQ to digital currency exchange bitcoin continues climbing.
As everyone knows, the wolf of Wall Street in before admission, there may be money disc pick us retail? Don’t keep the price hit for most people to spit out the bloody chips, “regular army” could be easily admission?
In fact, from the financial point of view, we should pay more attention to the BTC in the end who.
20% of the world’s gold in New York, controlled by the central institutions, so the stock liquidity is suppressed.
But bitcoin is different, no measures of liquidity and physical constraints, need to focus through other means. When the “regular army” to obtain enough bitcoin chips, the bull market may come on slowly.
These features should be accompanied by some policy signals, especially the tightening, increase the signal of monopoly, and the associated financial instruments. Then, there is no money to enter, in fact it is very lower.
From the financial point of view, if the Wall Street regular admission, concentrated chips should be the first step in their.
04 trade angle
“Financial empire” in a few words, quite reasonable, to share with you here:
Not to buy good stock value investment, not even buy shares will be good, but better than the public expected to buy stocks.
If you cannot get the public to know the information, and not out of the ordinary values, then the basic analysis for you, will be a self deception.
For most investors, only losing stock will make a long-term investment.
You see, these investment ideas apply investment in block chain, is not a suitable value?
From the business point of view, to success is very simple. Like Lee to say, is nothing more than “buy low and sell high”. But it is too difficult to do. Interested friends can learn about “self cultivation” of Chinese chive.
Financial speculators put forward “reflexive” investors to predict the market trend and then act according to the existing information and understanding of the market, and its action at the same time, will in turn affect and change the original market possible trend, both continue to influence each other.
Tomorrow’s market, as Schrodinger’s cat, when the observer has action, results will be changed, so you can never predict the short-term market trend.
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful,” Buffett the classic investment law, almost every investor knows, but truly, there are several?