Money is the secret in the flesh and blood flying in all directions when buy buy buy.
Wake up, bitcoin prices plummeted.
Less than 24 hours, from $5400 to $4400, without a pause breathing, no analyst calls the $5000 support, “bitcoin directly” straight “dive.
It is the whole circle of currency plummeted, as of press time, ETH fell 14%, converted into RMB only 3 digits; just forked BCH the highest decline reached 44%; EOS, LTC, ICO, currency exchange platform project last year Token, the decline in 10% and 20%.
BCH bifurcation is a lead, behind this slump, something deeper and more profound impact.
This round of collapse, will direct the bitcoin prices back to 2017 years 10 months level.
11 June 19 16 PM 30, Bitstamp and Coinbase encryption currency trading platform bitcoin price, first fell below $5000, down from a single trend quickly spread to the global trading platform.
11 20 April morning, the market panic spread again, money, Ann OKEx and many other platforms bitcoin price has fallen below $5000.
For a time, investors in an uproar. The price of bitcoin does not follow the routine the cards, but not most people expected to remain at $5000 or more support, but directly dive, continue to break the lowest since 2018, the minimum fell to about $4400.
CoinMarketCap data show that the total market value of about $82 billion encryption currency compared to December 17, 2017, the highest market capitalization of $320 billion compared to full fell nearly 75%.
“I run empty.” Li Ping said investors in the group, he estimated the price of bitcoin next will continue to fall, “I started waiting.”
“I open, or to see the next trend.” Another investor Li Guo is not optimistic about the current market, he said, since July this year, bitcoin prices have tumbled, we do not see the variable hope basically, recently are mostly short.
Bitcoin lead down, other copycat dollars can not be out of the independent market.
Within 24 hours, the etheric square, the price fell to $129, EOS price fell to $3.5, Wright currency prices fell to $31, almost all encryption currency cliff fall spared.
In 2014, Buffett claimed that bitcoin is a mirage, urged everyone to stay away from; in October 2017, Buffett sound again, he believes that bitcoin is a joke, a true bubble, that virtual currency value idea is wrong. Fall again, bitcoin is air coins “speech began to rise.
Bitcoin once again facing a consensus crisis.
Although bitcoin since its birth, the death of more than a hundred times, can return every time, but this time, in the face of such a sudden fall, led to bitcoin encryption currency, can survive the winter?
BCH bifurcation detonated panic
The bitcoin slump from 11 month 16 Public opinions are divergent., arguing, are still difficult to have a unified answer, but some analysts attributed it to the recent BCH bifurcation after consumption of war and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission brings to the Airfox and Paragon Coin Inc punishment uncertainty.
Among them, BCH bifurcation to affect bitcoin is brought about by the mainland and Macao bit the Cong bitcoin will sell a certain currency to pull their bifurcation disc, after Wu Jihan bluntly, will allow BSV to charge on the exchange of currency, sell all.
This speech has become the last straw breaks the fragile bitcoin prices, in less than 2 days bitcoin quickly fell to the lowest price of $5000 per year.
Affected, bitcoin prices fell in November 16th, bitcoin the whole network is suddenly from 60PH/s fast down to 42PH/s, and by the influence of stress is in the bifurcation of war BCHABC and BSV the stress from the bifurcation of 3200PH/s before the rapid rise to 7000PH/s.
According to foreign media comment, the BCHABC and BSV operator support, let mainland and Macao this bit Cong in the burn, the uncertainty of subsidies burn, let mainland and Macao bit the Cong bitcoin Holdings has become a kind of uncertainty of the bitcoin market factors.
The penalty incident, ProChain Capital chief technology officer Justin told Bloomberg said: “selling and law enforcement, and the two companies will not be the last case, the future will have more enterprises have been implicated.”
“It will be difficult for this year’s ICO, so in the face of increased uncertainty, selling has become the best choice.”
While bitcoin development in the past year, with the last BCH bifurcation and consensus division, bitcoin development team manipulated facts could be fully propaganda, which makes bitcoin believers rapidly reduced, while speculators increased rapidly.
So when facing market uncertainty, with the current stable money market the biggest USDT scandals, more speculators in price during the realization of selling sideways selection.
According to AIcoin data show that the current bitcoin market panic index up to 21, the whole market is in a state of extreme panic.
In fact, in a few months and bitcoin fell sideways in the “panic” in the mood has been piled up, whether it is consensus or no progress in this project, especially large and landing.
BCH bifurcation, a wire just detonated panic.
Closely connected with traditional financial markets
In addition to the encryption of bad news inside the money market, the change of bitcoin fell and the external environment are closely related.
According to the Reuters news, U.S. stocks fell again yesterday, closing, the NASDAQ index fell 3%, Dow 1.56%, P 500 fell 1.66%.
Among them, Apple shares fell to $185.86, 24 hours fell to 4.0%. Compared with a month ago the share price, Apple has fallen by 19.9%. Before the technology stocks brought a wave of the bull market, but also because investors of apple and other tech stocks selling again, and vanished.
At the same time, Chinese three stock index also showed different degrees of decline. According to the NetEase financial data platform, Mon A shares fell 1.85%, shares fell 2.35%.
Today, under the influence of American policy on Iran, New York crude oil futures prices has been the 12 trading day fall down over 7%, this is the biggest one-day decline in recent years. Compared with the October 3rd peak, New York crude oil futures prices fell 27.11%, London Brent crude oil futures prices fell 24.12%.
We can see that the financial targets fall are related to one thing, that is the dollar.
The fundamental reason of the crash may be because the Fed dollar interest rate policy, interest rates continued to rise.
The dollar rate hike, but also had an impact on the encryption of money market.
Bitcoin is from birth to now, currency prices thousands of times, there is a close relationship between the dollar and low interest rates. Due to the low interest rate makes the traditional investment downturn, bitcoin investment alternatives, which is why bitcoin initial prosperity.
But this year, the dollar continued to increase interest rates, the first quarter interest rate by 25 basis points, and the interest rate behavior in repeated 4 times.
High interest rates are making bitcoin lose this advantage, U.S. bond yields continued to rise, on the contrary the encryption currency holders because the long-term weakness in encryption of the currency market, have chosen to evacuate the crypto currency market hedge. Money flows into the U.S. debt, money market will naturally drop encryption.
In addition to the dollar rate hike, another reason is that the international situation, especially the Sino US trade war does not end.
In November 19th, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, have issued a joint statement after the summit, this is the first time in 29 years.
Therefore, some analysts said that Sino US trade war triggered by the atmosphere of confrontation intensified.
Among the strongest in the world’s two largest economy financial war, resulting in the world’s capital to provide safe harbor place less and less, the thought of encryption currency market also do not have the ability to protect the capital.
A few bad news directly to the breakdown of the coins come in a throng, people’s psychological defense.
Perhaps whether bitcoin and other encryption currency would, with the disc is more and more big, the encryption currency can no longer as before with the traditional financial markets are vast.
“Lost haven currency” label
Bitcoin was known as encryption monetary gold, and gold as a “hedge” attribute.
The capital market is constantly changing, when the risk of the outbreak, investors tend to riskier assets in exchange of stable value assets to avoid the risk. The so-called hedge, is in a storm, like a harbor the same assets, venture capital will always give a moment of peace.
In fact, whether it is in 2013 that bitcoin famous “Cyprus crisis” or “currency crisis in Turkey this year, bitcoin has served as” safe havens “function, trading in a short period of time.
Since 2016, with soaring bitcoin market, compared to global financial institutions and individual investors recognized the value of bitcoin increased.
Goldman Sachs Global Commodity Research Director Jeff Currie said that bitcoin is a commodity has many similarities with gold, caused mainly due to fluctuations in investor concern is its lack of liquidity.
More and more domestic and foreign well-known scholars and entrepreneurs believe that bitcoin has the same hedging properties of gold and.
At the beginning of 2018, the National People’s Congress professor Yang Dong believes that bitcoin is hedging value.
Similar to Yang Dong idea are ChartMasterPro options traders, independent market analyst John DiCecco, he said in the end of 2017, the hedging properties, bitcoin is even better than gold, “gold lost hedge appeal, but also the history of the birth of bitcoin investors for the first time to choose gold outside investment goods to seek safe haven”.
This year 8 month, the fire coins head Li Lin also believes that bitcoin “hedging property is 2016 years of the bull market the biggest promoter,” why 2016 years will appear super bull market, because bitcoin has become the hedging properties of assets, we have a new look on it again”.
However, this fall, but can not help but suspect that bitcoin really is “hedging properties”?
Before answering this question, we analyze the root cause of gold and dollars have hedging properties.
First of all, gold and dollar volume big enough to take part of the financial risk. According to the survey data, as of 2018 years, the global gold reserves of 33726.2 tons, worth $1 trillion and 420 billion.
Secondly, global gold ETF trading and many financial institutions can almost seamlessly exchange blessings.
Can be said to be a greater range of “consensus”, given the gold hedging properties of such assets.
Although bitcoin has “volume” to “consensus”, but compared with gold, still too young.
At present, the total market value of bitcoin $80 billion, less than 6% of the total market value of gold. Even in the peak period, the total market value of bitcoin is only 3200 billion dollars, less than a fraction of the total market value of gold.
From the transaction convenience, the United States SEC bitcoin ETF delay pending, and the exchange of business are in the gray zone, the legitimacy of the law is not all bitcoin make clear verdict.
These have weakened the bitcoin currency hedging strength.
In addition to bitcoin itself, several times in the history of bitcoin as a hedging tool, or in a certain area, and did not do the global hedge, and these “hedging” behind, faint with antagonism center means.
With a few times since the collapse of BCH bifurcation, each dip are retail institutions, the vast great battle. Shunned, and what about the hedge?
Therefore, now talk about “hedging properties”, and it is too early.
The BCH bifurcation has plummeted, not only shaken the bitcoin “consensus”, also spread to the outside of the circle, and the chain block encryption domain related currency.
Predicted encryption currency analyst Willy Woo, bitcoin is expected in the second quarter of 2019 bottomed out.
From the 2019 second quarter and four months, then, if you can insist on bitcoin “faith”?