Bitcoin crash behind: bifurcation stampede, tighter regulation

Author Lin / silent bell Aaron

Edit / He Shulong

Bitcoin market continued to slump, a piece of some.

On Monday, bitcoin prices from $5737 all the way down, on the evening of the same day below the $5000 mark to $4883; Tuesday, bitcoin prices fell $4500 to $4482, on the evening of the same day, 24 hours down 14.41%; this morning, bitcoin lowest price hit $4060, 28196 yuan, night fell back in August of last year’s price.

A stock exchange today BTC price chart

In the past 3 days, bitcoin prices fell more than 30%. Now the price of bitcoin, representing the highest point last year 12 month (about 19800 dollars), fell by 79%.

The world’s largest encryption currency, is experiencing an avalanche of winter.

Other encryption currency, more dismal situation.

In the past day, EOS fell 13.88% to $3.77; Ethernet square fell 11.1% to $135.34; bitcoin cash also fell to $244.02, two days before the price is still around $300.

In addition, Wright coins, coins and other Gerbaud encryption currency prices also fell to varying degrees. The top ten digital currency is mostly two digit decline.

The data said, The overall market value of digital currency in the past week, the loss of at least $60 billion . From January this year highs, digital currency overall market value of at least $660 billion.

All people want to know: what is this why?

The reasons causing the stampede of 1:BCH bifurcation

Combing the bitcoin price time line is not difficult to find, the currency price decline began on the eve of BCH.

BCH (bitcoin cash) is a digital currency market ranked four, mining giants, controlled by a bit bitcoin is the 8 month of 2017 years from the original bitcoin chain and bifurcation (can be understood as a copy of the “copycat” bitcoin). Recently, a large force is the control BCH (CSW) Craig Steven Wright BCH CSW to split again, camp and bit, camp since the beginning of the 11 month 16 days is playing the battle, the fight for dominance BCH. This battle was also seen as CSW and Wu Jihan (founder, bit) showdown between, and CSW is a self proclaimed Nakamoto Australians, so called “Macao satoshi”.

In order to win a war, Macao and Wu Jihan Satoshi use their own resources to dig for many of the original BTC (bitcoin) is switched to the BCH, which directly leads to the decrease of BTC is force Also, indirectly lead to a decline in the price of bitcoin.

“The root of the decline is the loss of confidence in the bear market, the fuse is in a BSV BCH bifurcation regardless of economic interests, burn to attack the BCH backbone, make people doubt the anti attack capability of the password to the center of the currency.” Industrial and Commercial University Of Chongqing Research Center Director Liu Changyong told the economic block chain block chain Truth (ID:chaintruth) said.

The singularity consulting founder Zheng Di in November 15th said the analysis, is war caused the BTC network of the last 10 days is decreased by about 10%, the full cost of digging 1 BTC also fell 10% to $5000 ($4 gross electricity) ~4000 (3 gross electricity). On the basis of such cost, The big miners have full power in the futures market ahead of the BTC’s profits .

This is probably why the futures market fell to $BTC 4900, if there is no profit space, bitcoin suppliers (miners) will not be willing to lower than the spot market price in advance throws in the futures market (future) bitcoin.

In the whole period is reached, BTC mining is in decline. “During the peak period, the bitcoin network has 60EH computing power, fell before there was a 52EH, and then quickly dropped to 45~47EH, now only about 40EH.” Zheng Di on the block chain Truth (ID:chaintruth) said.

In Zheng Di’s view, is behind the decline because of currency prices continued to decline, Some miners can not cover costs lead to marginal hashrate exit, and exit is led to currency prices continue to fall, to form a vicious spiral. “Many people think that the cost to the price of bitcoin costs fell 10%, the price should follow down.” Zheng Di analysis.

It seems that currency prices fell and fought off the relationship. 11 19 and 11 20, founder of the Star Letter Series in the circle of friends issued at BTC and BCH bifurcation about round slump.

The stars in the circle of friends:

Pan City Holdings chairman Chen Weixing is adamant that BCH bifurcation is the main reason for bitcoin crash, he said to Truth: “cold chain block (Wu Jihan) and the Macao Cong caused the market to worry about messing around. Many people do not understand bitcoin, hashrate became everybody may understand the index, BCH BTC is less in battle, will cause panic and sell.”

Block chain expert Hong Shuning told the blockchain Truth, bitcoin prices fell because both sides have to be fought financing selling a large number of bitcoin, BTC and BCH also reduced the price difference is conducive to both sides reached the control force flow.

This is really — fairy fight, the people suffer!

However, there are also different views. Libet pool founder Jiang zall retorted: “this” peaceful mining race “, the two sides to date (late November 20th), the cumulative total burn 30 million yuan, less than 1000 BTC.” He believes, CSW claimed the “war burn prices to sell BTC” untenable, a total cost of less than 1000 BTC, the plane smashed through? (Note: according to the fire coins Pro display bitcoin cash flow flux is 16 million 738 thousand and 200)

Jiang zall statistical charts are given

2:OKEx futures add fuel to the flames

In the view of the river of the drow, bitcoin fell is the direct cause of futures exchange system error OKEx, resulting in a large number of automatic quantification procedures zapan stock, market panic has been detonated.

11 in the afternoon of 14 March 5, On the platform of OKEx BCH futures contract delivery in advance, the transaction price is not in accordance with the spot price, but according to each contract the last transaction price calculation . When the BCH stock index futures is $500, and $408.

OKEx explains why early delivery in public

Some analysts have pointed out that the traditional commodity futures delivery, when there is no discount, because you can take long positions for physical delivery, if the discount will be removed, and the valuation of the futures exchange, to the delivery time will be in accordance with the package of stock index compiled by the weighted average closing price, delivery time will not discount and basic premium, the futures market did not say is in accordance with the last transaction price settlement delivery.

OKEx’s decision led directly to many investors losses. Therefore, some analysts have pointed out that, 11 on the night of 14 November Ethernet square, Wright coins, EOS and other mainstream currency futures have liquidity buying dried up, full of panic selling, the deepest etheric Fang fell to $141, while the spot is still $180.

At the same time, Jiang said the fundamental reason is the drow cross long bear market will fall. He insisted that the amount of BTC’s body, is a lack of BTC $7% coins (BCH) cause such a big impact is justified.

A few days ago, five digital encryption currency investment fund for futures trading in OKEx suffered unfair treatment and jointly denounce OKEx, one of them has been to Hongkong, the Commission submitted a complaint. There are reports that abnormalities in OKEx during the market totaled more than $400 million single warehouse explosion.

3 reasons: the supervision situation is grim

In the bulk of the mine owners (a pseudonym), the currency price fell, is not the main reason for war. “You think, Wu Jihan machine how to sell? At the end, the miners back to the cost of the machine also sell.” The bulk of the block chain Truth (ID:chaintruth) said.

Coin printing co-founder and COO Zhu think fell and reached the weight of all never mind. “Originally it is not necessary to play what battle, community differences, hard line bifurcation. The so-called battle is just the two sides to a non emotional scene on the high, or just a marketing gimmick.” Zhu Truth said on block weight chain.

He told the blockchain Truth, A big reason is the United States to combat ICO crash . According to “the Wall Street journal” reported on November 16th, recently, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (hereinafter referred to as “SEC”) issued a notice on the official website, said on CarrierEQ and Inc. (Airfox) and Paragon Coin Inc. for a civil penalty of two ICO projects. The contents include: first, according to the time of purchase token valuation, returned to investors in the form of $two, to be registered; tokens to legitimate securities; three, a report to the Committee at least annually; four, a fine of $250 thousand.

The same day, SEC also issued “on the digital asset securities issuance and trading statement”, the specific definition of “digital assets” and “exchange” and “business entity” concept. In the announcement, ICO token is regarded as unregistered securities.

SEC tweets screenshot

This is the first SEC announced civil penalties for violation of the provisions of the founder of encryption currency. Some analysts have pointed out that the United States is a typical case law, for the first time since the decision will affect the direction and scale of penalty cases, the verdict is obvious and clear attitude, affecting investor confidence for encryption currency. While Washington law firm Stepehn Palley said, The relevant test involved may be applicable in the past 95% years. The judgment of the ICO project.

Study on the legal Chinese bank director told Xiao SA block chain Truth: strictly speaking not appear civil judgment, on behalf of the regulators for tighter regulation of certain behavior; case and future can only say “group litigation”, may affect the regulatory policies, such as state or federal legislation. From another point of view can be considered, such as civil litigation judgment, will make the project because of encryption currency case constraint will be more cautious.

Another report showed that U.S. regulators are investigating whether bitcoin last year rose a record is the result of market manipulation. The focus of this investigation is whether traders used a controversial Tether encryption currency to facilitate bitcoin prices. Tether’s founders say the crypto currency (USDT) by $1:1 in the ratio of support.

In June this year, a professor of finance at the University of Texas John Griffin (John Griffin) and graduate Amin Shams (Amin Shams) published a study called bitcoin or at least half is due to price fixing conspiracy. In the 66 page papers, the authors explain, at the crucial moment of bitcoin prices fell, some people use Tether to buy a lot of bitcoin, which contributes to the stability and manipulating the price of bitcoin.

All the signs indicate that the mainstream country for virtual currency regulation is more and more strict, this is perhaps one of the reasons people short term decline bitcoin.

Review: bitcoin 10 years 3 plummeted

To predict the future, we should look at the past.

Bitcoin since birth has been accompanied by controversy. For a long time, bitcoin is just a geek toys. However, since the investors fancy, crazy continued.

In the middle of 2011 And the price of bitcoin in just a couple of months from 0.95 rose to $32 dollars. Bitcoin first became a myth of wealth, the domestic currency circle pioneer Li Xiaolai, Yang Linke is at this time of admission.

However, a few days later, bitcoin began to decline after 1 months, bitcoin has fallen below $10. 2 2012, bitcoin has dropped to around $2, the highest rate of decline reached 94%.

In June 2011 the first bitcoin prices plummeted

Later, some analysts said, The cause of the crash is because bitcoin trading game player is not much, not enough depth, a big sell-off could lead to volatility in currency price.

In 2013, bitcoin officially ushered in the crazy trip.

At the end of April 2013 , bitcoin prices from around $20 at the beginning of a rose to about $260. If the line is longer, from the end of 2011 to May 2013, bitcoin prices rose 1000 times.

According to a price chart at the time of the disk, in bitcoin on the $260 after it all the way down, just a few days below $50, the minimum to $more than 40, or up to 80%.

In May 2013 the price of bitcoin

Some analysts said, Because at that time, bitcoin mining software in an update to produce a small BUG this fall, resulting in the biggest exchange Mt.Gox suspended bitcoin withdrawals business, traders panic, wantonly selling.

In fact, with bitcoin prices higher, the fluctuation of a thriller.

However, just 7 months after the crash, i.e. December 2013 Actually, bitcoin prices have been as high as $1200, there have been many investors started to pay attention to bitcoin investment. Even a popular story: a bitcoin game player, in order to facilitate the transaction, exchange almost slept in the door, he directly holding bank card exchange staff pay their credit card, he every day of that month can Kuangzhuan 200 million.

Then, China central bank and other five ministries issued a “about bitcoin risk prevention notice” . Notice of a, the domestic bitcoin prices on the same day from $1200 is cut to $600 a day, the evaporation of 50%!

Since then, with the “bitcoin security Mentougou incident” and lead to regulatory policy reasons, bitcoin prices always fell in fluctuation. Until January 2015, bitcoin finally bottomed at $150. A fall of the fall is bitcoin the longest, highest drop 87%.

7 bitcoin price trend

Outlook: the future of bitcoin

BCH bifurcation event, accident, ICO OKEx futures regulatory crackdown, which causes as a direct result of the recent bitcoin prices fell sharply. Review the history of bitcoin, you will find it is very normal for up and down, once the spike, now seems all is a small small drop. High light moment today is not bitcoin, bitcoin is not the end of the world.

People are more concerned about the: What is bitcoin? Where is the real value of it?

EToro analyst Mati Greenspan, former tweets said: please relax, don’t just pay attention to short-term events, want to view the overall situation. Since the 1 2017 years, bitcoin rose more than 500%. This is just a callback.

If you want to know why this year bitcoin plummeted last year soared as to ask why.

Ledong capital founder Yang Linke said: the recent bitcoin prices fell because of the global economic downturn, sell-off in technology stocks affect bitcoin digital assets. But in the long run, This year the encrypted digital currency market, mainly because the ICO bubble burst, all kinds of digital assets return to a reasonable valuation, currency have zero waste .

Last year, after “94”, ICO (first token issue) industry chain from the ground underground, and showing a growing momentum. The monetary law of many countries are clearly defined, any non official release of the virtual currency does not have legal effect, financial institutions can not for illegal virtual currency transaction settlement services. Then, bitcoin, Fang become a universal virtual currency ICO Ethernet chain. Last year the ICO boom, the market demand for bitcoin suddenly increased, so the price soaring.

94 regulatory halt ICO

This year, ICO break rate shot up to 99%, quanqian game difficult to continue, market demand for bitcoin itself in decline. In this context, bitcoin prices return to reason will be not at all surprising.

The blockchain expert Hong Shuning said: bitcoin is a digital gold, with a store of value and the means of payment function, stable currency is encryption of the currency market, this point has not changed, will not change. To calculate the market will get rational recovery after the end of the good long-term bitcoin and the entire market trend has not changed.

For the price of bitcoin this fall, analysis of digital currency analysts, 500 Gold Research Institute president Xiao Lei said: “in the bitcoin bear market, we will not good, is unable to support the current price, Because bitcoin itself can not generate revenue, if there is no successor, selling stock market is almost a doomed behavior Not sure, would only sell at what time.”

In Xiao Lei’s view, other chip manufacturers listed bit, dense fog, leading industry chain suffered bitcoin most upstream to the strong pressure. Encryption currency bifurcation, allow investors to worry – to the center of the bitcoin will not count because the concentration of stress, and be ambitious to use? This challenge to those who believe bitcoin people’s confidence.

Chen Weixing also said: bitcoin originally is the pursuit to the center, but now the Jihan and Macao Wu Cong such people always want to build authority, which greatly affected the outside world for trust and consensus bitcoin. In his opinion, Bitcoin is valuable because of a lot of people have a common vision – to make bitcoin become an anchor of future digital economic era, has become a measure of different values of the scale, the equivalent number of gold.

Liu Changyong of Truth said the blockchain, The original should be positioning bitcoin is the currency of the world, but now seems to go . BTC to the bulk of investment goods, the Wall Street and the rich investment object, common payment transaction costs are too high, from the point of cash system. Before a lot of bitcoin payment up to bitcoin, bitcoin cash, currency or the Wright currency ethernet.

So, to bitcoin value it seems to be the only “digital gold” function. The investment people expect: chain circle can appear new concept and hot, so as to push the high bit currency speculation; people are looking forward to the new circle: currency funds into speculation, which pulled bitcoin.

The bear is still hope, still, the story still bitcoin.

(author: blockchain truth, content from the chain have open platform content too “; this paper represents the views of the authors and do not represent the official position of the chain too)

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