Bitcoin future development of some combination of the three technologies conjecture
In this paper, a bit high sorting from the airlines and founder of the National Social Science bitcoin project leader Li Jing teacher dialogue, slightly modified.
Gao Hang, serial entrepreneur, founder of one bit, Zhejiang network founder, author of the book “digital currency”.
Bitcoin technology itself is not particularly large innovation, block chain accounting technology, cryptography technology, P2P network technology is already exists and is a widely used technique, but put these technologies together is a great innovation. The core meaning it has three main points:
1, bitcoin through the Internet using the “money effect” strategy of marketing communication, one of the largest span, it gives rise to the pursuit of “the awakening of democratic currency” more people’s consciousness, Nakamoto in its enlightening role as “capital”.
2, the use of simple mathematical method to realize the global standard of minimum cost, so that the “internet currency” possible. Bitcoin best route is to become an open and transparent and fair, so that ordinary people can participate in free, programmable architecture, based on the global financial internet protocol layer.
3, with a desire to pursue democracy “money” to achieve financial freedom, conforms to the basic ecological environment of technological change change to promote modern financial reform trend, but also conforms to the background of the international political and economic globalization, multi polarization of the game. Today, bitcoin is not just technology of grass root of interest, it has long been close to the National Consortium think-tank, decision-making bodies, although bitcoin has only a very small tender bud.
Long time span to consider the development of human civilization, the 100 years as 1 minutes, we will discover the human science and technology progress is instantly broke out in 3 minutes. And it has great acceleration, the innovation speed will be faster, energy accumulation will be faster, the subversion of the underlying architecture will become faster. In 2014, the price of bitcoin a low mystery, but the development of bitcoin system as a whole is still in the trend. (one bit to be released “2014 China digital currency Industry Development Research Report”, the first in this notice.)
Bitcoin will develop to two directions, one direction is bitcoin core upgrade. One direction is the bitcoin ecosystem evolution.
Chat first bitcoin core what problem? There are three main points:
1, bitcoin is currently at the technical level is still controversial, such as mining mechanism, when we discuss whether the main mine pool Federation of evil, a lot of people will say, no problem! They do no good! But as a new transaction with financial attributes, whether we can take the cost of default known to hedge the unknown future all the possible risk of default? Mining mechanism is one of the early marketing incentive model, but until now, the incentive model of development can support bitcoin to be verified. It can be confirmed that the original intention of this hearing center of the pool is not mine, according to the design of Nakamoto, confirmation of a transaction must be decentralized, so when the development of bitcoin design beyond his expectations, he was aware of his own shortcomings on the design, but he can not afford to reverse, at this moment he can only hide. Nakamoto So is a genius, but he is not a prophet. He underestimated the “money effect” will be completely excited the greed of human nature.
2, the anonymity problem, this is a very big double-edged sword, a lot of people hear the anonymous information does not assume any responsibility for the transfer is shining eyes heard underground transactions, unable to track, a “world bitter Qin long” mentality, that if you can fix this world. That fact? The fact is an anonymous, underground thing may never become the mainstream of world development, it may never become a financial innovation to promote human development. Technology is the core value of bitcoin is open, transparent, verifiable, and not his anonymity. Early use of geeks bitcoin anonymity for the spread of the concept is a very effective strategy, but until today, the anonymity of bitcoin has become a great obstacle of ecological development. Such as washing money, hacking stolen coins can be easily washed by the pool (also write an article about the specific operation), who is hurt? Hurt the entire industry.
3, security issues, security mechanism of bitcoin greatly limits the popularization of bitcoin, to a man, let him hold bitcoin, do you think he is more worried about money free or for money safe and more worried about. If we advocate is the long-term value of bitcoin, then it must solve the security mechanism of bitcoin problems, especially the usability and user experience security mechanism. Now the young people, basically do not have a bank card, transfer payment and they almost all use of Alipay and WeChat, when they become the main force of society, the world will be how to change? Go to the center of the bitcoin can be like Alipay convenient and easy to use, the payment and settlement and application scenarios, everyone can easily be made one, the global trade, this is the most imaginative. If bitcoin can only be a few IT elite security hold will not have a big development, more people hold the value of bitcoin was greater. There are some people, they pay attention to bitcoin is just to bring attention to bitcoin fluctuations in currency speculation returns, Xu Mingxing and Li Lin and I chatted about trading users to install their own wallet proportion is very low, the consequences of these users, one is to make money more and more concentrated in exchange; one is to become an accomplice (the price change radically I’m not saying is the principal oh).
The second direction is to improve the bitcoin ecosystem.
Perfect bitcoin ecosystem includes two aspects, one is to improve the infrastructure, is a perfect application scenarios.
I think the main infrastructure is a node problem, although there are a lot of restrictions on current hardware, but if a wider network, hard disk, you can jump out of the thinking frame of thinking, bitcoin core should deploy more fine granularity in the cloud network, no need to deploy the personal computer or mobile phone in the end. For example, the blockchain router, he can realize the super node and the transaction confirmation calculation be made one, the transaction settlement network designed for WiFi as easy. For example, now the car networking is very hot in investment circles, because the car will become the future of mobile information terminal. The car can also become a block chain super node or private nodes, when the development to such a state, financial figures really with the water and air, everywhere, nodes are more abundant, bitcoin transaction confirmation of the broadcast time is short, the digital currency is only developed to this stage, to such as CCTV documentary “money” in the said: “let freedom become free, let wealth become wealth”.
Now there are many people on the side chain, the side chain of the main reason is that the amount of information to the bitcoin block chain bearing is too small, with the improvement of bitcoin ecological system itself the problem will be solved, of course, the agreement is also divided into many layers, the development of side chain can become more upper layer protocols. It will enrich the bitcoin flexibility to solve practical problems.
To improve the application scenarios, currency circle of entrepreneurs in the attempt to do a variety of games, sea Amoy, gambling, raise public equity and so on, there are so many pain points are these scenes. 游戏：游戏币的发行、跨境流通肯定能改变目前虚拟商品交易的业态；海淘：跨境兑付的问题，尤其是服务类的商品，比如版权交易市场、创意市场、设计市场、外包服务市场等等，都能推进支付的进化，在全球的支付网络里，一定还存在着盲区，比如非洲小国的设计师在自己家里可以通过这样的支付网络为中国的某个咖啡馆直接服务；博彩：真正公平的、拼概率的、不作弊的彩票；股权众筹：公司股票标记与不作假，股票更容易进行虚拟化交易，比特币不可伪造的标记本身就有非常大的实用价值，理论上比特币的最小单位“聪”能够标记任何一种资产，包括：简单快速的跨国签名、国际合同签署、司法存证等等，在金融领域，支付一聪就能成为天使投资人，一个人的公司也能成为上市公司，这一切在比特币的网络里都成为了可能……
Digital currency can be the national strategy?
A bit team thinking in the process of exploration, digital currency can become a national strategy? The imaginary in the national strategy, digital currency will produce what kind of effect? Silicon Valley prophet Kevin? Kelly was put forward in 2014 to bit Beijing headquarters, “I think 15 years Chinese government may require the use of a (official) digital currency, because can provide open and detailed transaction records. Of course, this digital currency might be similar to a bank, rather than such bitcoin”. 有一种观点得到很多人的共识，比特币还是存在成为阶段性产物的可能，但是比特币技术一定能长远的发展下去。 The government has no such appeal? Of course there is absolutely, it is certainly not bitcoin this form is more embedded. Considering from the national level, the state does not need digital currency P2P, anonymity and anarchy, has the characteristics of money laundering risks, and these characteristics are not bitcoin’s inherent attribute, the essence of blockchain technology is that it is an open and transparent trading records. We remove the anonymity of bitcoin, P2P technology, password verification technology from general ledger, into a breakdown of the sample, to see if it can solve some practical problems. For example, the financial transfer payment, project management of special funds, advance programming setting than after the special audit is more efficient. To solve the local government and the central financial game also can better the problem, run into the money, the abuse of power space will be compressed. For example, to solve the social security health insurance fund management problems under complex conditions can greatly improve the efficiency of using digital currency ideas. Everyone in our Medicare reimbursement scenario, a variety of conditions, all kinds of drugs, our country’s management system suitable for this complex condition, can not stop people to rule, man-made inequality, lead to extremely inefficient and social injustice. Another example of the Central Bank of the bank’s monetary control, the use of digital currency can also be more precise and efficient management, don’t worry in the out of control and bank account balance sheet problems. Many of our macro economic data based on decision making mistakes, not to say here is that many economists, the most hated thing. Let us go further, the top-down administrative management mechanism is difficult to adapt to the future of the world is the ecological environment free connection, rules, policies, in our country, are carried out by administrative power from top to bottom, so the bottom of the system leads to innovation is very small, its evolutionary time long. Recently, Premier Li Keqiang mentioned many times, the Inclusive Finance released political signal is the biggest country in encouraging the “bottom-up, Potuerchu, forced reform”, of course this signal can last long, remains to be seen. If this signal can last two governments, then the Chinese people we are faced with a small patrol as Pingnan landmark of entrepreneurship, too many closed system needs to change, there is huge opportunity.
To speed up the process of Globalization
Even the most remote regions of the earth, the dissemination of information will need only 0.8 seconds, the emergence of the Internet makes the world becomes flat, the advantages of symmetric information is no longer a patent. While bitcoin, can make the world more peaceful. Let the world regardless of nationality, regardless of culture, regardless of race, language, recognition of a monetary standard and financial agreements, which are too valuable. Through the establishment of an open, transparent and verifiable system, so that everyone can use the simple rules of the game involved, to become a global currency, only in this way, the earth is only possible, are eligible to participate in the competition to go to the star.
I always firmly believe that the concept of digital currency, politics of democracy, will have a profound impact on freedom. Of course, to become an internet currency, to become the Internet based financial deal accepted a people on earth, bitcoin has a long way to go. What about the future? Use your imagination!