Recently, bitcoin circle ushered in nearly a year of the day. According to the Bitstamp platform for real-time data display, as of 11 26 April evening, bitcoin prices in a number of trading platforms offer about $4000, a record since the last month low 9.
Author Pan Yichun Zhang Siyuan |
Wang Yu Chen Shiyi, editor of |
Compared with the beginning of the highest closing price fell nearly 8 into
Bitcoin is a digital currency transaction on the market at present the most active, once to millions of digital currency enthusiasts to bring hundreds of millions of wealth. Wind data show that in January 6, 2013, a bitcoin prices only $13.15. In December 16, 2017, bitcoin prices soared to $19 thousand and 200 reached a historic peak, then there is no summit.
In 2018, the price of bitcoin has been in a downward shock. In recent weeks the downward trend is more obvious, Wind data show that, following the 11 14 April bitcoin price below $6000, 19 fell below $5000, 24 below $4000.
At 14:30 on November 26th, according to the Bitstamp platform for real-time data display, bitcoin prices rebounded, each price stabilized at about $4100. However, the price is higher than $17149.67 earlier this year, the highest closing price has dropped nearly 8.
By bitcoin prices, some investors are leaving. According to a comprehensive information service provider in the field of digital currency and the blockchain onion APP data show that from November 25th at 10:30 in the morning to 26 at 10:30 in the morning, bitcoin outflows of $62 million 144 thousand and 600, far more than the sum of other digital currency outflows.
For the change of the bitcoin market, some currency circle dominated by speculation the game player has long been aware of. A bitcoin holders Wang Xiaowen told the Beijing News reporter, in June of this year, he put bitcoin sold, “at that time, the domestic and international investment situation is not very good, so I was not in it.”
Wang Xiaowen said, “judging from what I understand, now the whole circle of currency cornerstone investors have almost quit, no big banker. This year the cornerstone investors certainly won’t come in the second half of next year, perhaps there is a chance.”
Blockchain veteran Li Ming is currently in the hands still hold bitcoin, and there is no intention to sell. He told the Beijing News reporter said, “I still quite optimistic about the long-term development of the industry and its chain block. At present, most of the investors out of the market should be 2017 years of admission, these were purely to make money now, bitcoin prices fell, only flesh, or a warehouse explosion.”
Below the price of money off
Small miners suffered “blow on the head”
Even according to the latest price, bitcoin price has fallen below the price of money off part of ore mining. The so-called currency price refers to the shutdown, miner gains have been mining ore mining is not enough to pay for the consumption of electricity currency price, can also be interpreted as the cost of a dig dug coins. If the price fell below the price of RMB currency shutdown, then continue mining will be a loss.
At 12:30 on November 26th, according to the latest data of digital currency price off the world’s largest currency pool pond provided by f2pool, ant S7 (4.05T), A741 (7.3T), Avalon M3+ frequency Version (7.07T) and several machine shutdown currency price is higher than the current price of bitcoin. If the machine will continue to operate these losses.
“Now the market is poor badly, big miners may have the strength to get through the crisis, even for the hunters. For more I like this small game player, the boot is losing money”. With its “100 mine owners” Xiao Kun told the Beijing News reporter, he knew the small game player has many choose to shut down mines, waiting for the opportunity to pick up, but more people choose to sell mine to find another way.
A coin circle investment person A Qiang told the Beijing News interview, calculate the cost price of bitcoin as reporters rough.
It is reported that the cost of mining equipment, including electric power, equipment maintenance, venue rental and human costs etc.. According to A Qiang, a popular ant S9 mill prices early in the year has been fried to thirty thousand yuan, he starts when spent 25000 yuan. Electricity is not a small expenditure. In the common 20T to 40T mills, at 0.50 yuan per kWh of electricity under the condition of a mining machine in an annual cost of electricity in 15000 yuan.
In general, a machine to “dig” a coin about the time before and after 1.5 years. In addition, due to the general mining “mine” more than one machine, so most small scale mines will hire venues for mining, so the cost of renting the venue also greatly increased the cost of mining.
According to A Qiang said, without considering the cost, on average, small mines dug a bitcoin cost 40000 to 45000 yuan, which is between 6000 to 6500 U.S. dollars.
According to count, bitcoin prices have fallen recently, apparently to these small miners head-on blow. However, according to Xiao Kun, for larger owners, the storm is far less than the small miners, their coping capacity is much higher than the small miners.
Only the difference between a few cents per kilowatt hour, will cause the cost price of the actual million gap. Xiao Kun introduced, then consider the ore price gap, big miners dug to the cost price of single coin so low to $4000, the higher are generally not more than 5000 dollars each. Then we get the senior miners earlier single coin to the cost price of $6000 5000.
“The battle” by selling?
One side is below the cost of depression while the market, more and more strict regulatory measures.
Since last year, regulators for the block chain, especially the currency circle is more and more strict supervision. This year, the financial supervision department has issued a notice China many prompted the risk of the virtual currency. In January, the central bank payment and settlement department issued “on the illegal virtual currency transactions to provide payment services to self-examination and rectification work notice”, August 24th, seven ministries jointly issued on the prevention of “virtual currency” and “block chain” in the name of illegal fund-raising risk warning etc.. Recently, on suspicion of currency speculation by the public, shut down, the money hit the circle again.
Internationally, the recent U.S. Securities Regulatory Commission issued “on the digital asset securities issuance and trading statement”, the issuance and sale, the digital asset securitization digital assets especially the securities trading exchange registered broker dealers and registered are discussed in detail.
In addition to the external negative factors, bitcoin cash internal concept differences also exist, the bifurcation of the “hard war” has begun. According to reports, the “hard BCH bifurcation” was initiated by claiming to be “Macao the Cong long Australian Craig Steven Wright, BCH, BCH and loyal defenders within the community” struggle “between bit, CEO Jihan Wu, the two sides play” battle”. Under this background, investors are worried about the attack each other both sides will spread to bitcoin, therefore, have to sell to hedge.
It is reported that in November 16th, BCH bifurcation event will bitcoin into two currencies — “bitcoin bitcoin ABC” and “SV”. According to 36 krypton reported that this division also increased the market uncertainty, and make this the main market triggered bitcoin fell swoop, wear a long-term psychological support, out of panic disc, destroyed the entire price of technical indicators, resulting in bitcoin even broken several support, continue to dip.
Plate Research Institute chief analyst Huang said in an interview with Beijing News reporter, said bitcoin in various channels to reduce the demand. Secondly, when bitcoin value in all digital assets accounted for more than 50% time, bitcoin will rise in weak, and this round of bear market, BTC market value accounting has reached 58%, after it peaked, the reason is bitcoin prices fell.
How the future trend?
The bottom is difficult in the short term
Bitcoin will go in the future? For this problem, the pessimist clearly accounted for the mainstream. Xiao Lei, chief analyst 500 gold coin Policy Research Institute believes that because bitcoin does not have a main responsibility, at present there is no one to the center of the capital regulation mechanism, this model on the rise when almost no ceiling, nor in the fall when the so-called underpinning effect. So, the theory on bitcoin prices fell to $1000, or $100, is not possible.
Of course as a personal analysis, because of the block chain bitcoin bearing, and the global payment function will give bitcoin bring some long-term holders, the holders do not care about the future price, but this part of the holder itself are very few, so can the bitcoin price support in what position, not to say, only to seek new market equilibrium in the dynamic equilibrium, but this still depends on the global environment, if the Fed stop raising interest rates, global central banks worried about economic growth, to increase the money supply, bitcoin may be a new bottom, or sovereign currency credit enhancement, bitcoin will continue to blow, the bottom of it to appear in the short term.” Xiao Lei said.
Blockchain veteran Li Ming also told reporters that with the decline in mining costs, bitcoin prices may still decline in space. “However, I think the current bitcoin prices fell almost, but this is certainly not possible in the end, the middle of next year may fall to the bottom.”
The person told reporters explained that the inherent law of bitcoin is dug into each block bitcoin reward every four years by half, currently dig into each block 12.5 of a bitcoin reward. To 2020, it is bitcoin third production cycle, that is to say, bitcoin production will decline further.
(Wang Xiaowen, Li Ming, the Xiao Kun, A Qiang pseudonym)