Author Tao Jun Levin.
The source, Levin road block chain (laidaoblockchain)
In view of the recent bitcoin prices plummeted, and continued to record lows for the year, prices for some Xinlimeidi, a considerable number of people think money price to mining cost is at the bottom, in fact, this kind of thinking is a cognitive misunderstanding. This article mainly analyzes the factors influencing the price of bitcoin, bitcoin system on the bottom of logic, of course can only be a reference, does not constitute investment advice, risk.
Whether it is any subject, always cannot do without the price determining factors of supply and demand, when the supply and demand imbalance will cause price fluctuations. For example, China famously called “rare”, is a typical refers to a serious shortage of supply and demand, resulting in the looting, the price is expensive, the price is low on the contrary. So, no matter what the investment is from the two factors to go to constant price.
For the two factors of supply and demand, which is easier to quantify supply. Such as the issue in the stock market is the total supply, stock issuance and repurchase cancellation will affect the supply of the total; the real estate industry, the existing number of houses is the total supply of domestic currency, the currency; the total is the total supply. These we can see that the supply of them is able to quantify it, is through the digital displays, even changes in supply is also can be seen from the figures, the supply is single visualization.
However, it is difficult to quantify the demand. Such as stocks, you need to analyze is the core to buy or sell one, normally someone to buy a stock, is optimistic about the stock price in the future expected. The expected future price is mainly reflected in the face of the economic environment, the main business of listed companies. When the economic environment becomes worse or better, also showed the selling or purchase in demand, is also reflected in the prices fall or rise, the main business of Listed Companies in the impact on prices is the same way.
Although appear in front of us in the center of bitcoin, basically can not find bitcoin and society with the property, but its price is still not out of the supply and demand.
For a considerable number of people think money is at the bottom of the miners cost, the cost of the media to the mill is generally mill consumption of electricity, currency and price bottom miners cost price comparison unit time consumption of electricity per unit time and mining income, this is not logically self consistent. First, no matter what is the cost of the miners can affect bitcoin supply; secondly, although the miners cost within a short period of time remains unchanged for electricity, but the number of coin currency miners income * = price is dynamic, currency price is not the only influence the miner’s income factors, of which the number of coins also with the bitcoin mining competition and change. If the number of coins currency price fell speed is less than the per unit time, the income increases; if money prices rose at the time was less than the number of dollars, revenue decreased. According to the bitcoin network given rules, and the nature of the profit, regardless of any currency price fell to the price, as long as not to 0, there will be miners to maintain network security and profit.
Let’s look at the bitcoin supply, the total bitcoin is constant, not additional, but the total supply will contribute to the bitcoin network slowly release. The release speed, basically every 10 minutes to release a certain amount, until completely released, the release speed is periodically reduced, decreasing every 4 years. At present, every 10 minutes to release 12.5 bitcoin miners until 2020 will enter the next cycle, so the supply is dynamic balance.
Since supply in dynamic equilibrium, so the impact on prices is mainly from changes in demand, then what can be perceived by bitcoin demand changes?
One is: exchange bitcoin transaction demand. The amount of trading activity, the long term, the trading volume of any product is on the rise of the process is obvious, moreover, is the rapid decline in the short term will also affect the. But the exchange trading volume after all is a part of the whole market trading volume, more precisely, a small part of the bitcoin trading volume is large, in fact the reaction in the OTC, the chain of direct transaction, and the transaction is actually part of the exchange retail trading. Therefore, for those who see the so-called exchange bitcoin market trend analysis of the disk, the so-called “analyst”, is not only, there is no need to believe. This and other markets, such as the stock market there is a big gap.
The second is: policy induced changes in demand. The change of policy, in fact is very small, mainly concentrated in the larger influence in some countries, some of the digital currency transactions such as: US Japan and South korea. Only need to pay attention to the relevant departments, published authoritative documents can be, it is also very small, such as the impact of the digital currency department mainly SEC (SFC), CFTC (Commodity Futures Commission), IRS (IRS), read the official website data can be seen, the publication of the relevant notice of digital currency less. The news on the market, basically is the interpretation of published documents, but more media is a big vote.
Third: commercial applications. This demand, mainly from the shops, to accept bitcoin bitcoin ATM machine application payment needs, the overall demand is difficult to measure, because commercial applications too widely, such as the global average increase of the number of merchants, bitcoin ATM machine basically cannot measure the overall price, and a dynamic equilibrium point by more some data is coordinated, and then make a summary.
And most of the investment subject, bitcoin demand basically is difficult to go through comprehensive index to quantitative analysis, the price index changes in demand. But there is one point to note is that the changes in demand, a transaction will occur change, don’t forget to bitcoin is the most important characteristics of decentralized distributed storage, all transaction data is fully open, anyone can block the chain query bitcoin all transaction records.
Just like to give you a stock to the background, you see all the accounts and transaction records, each account corresponding to the asset balance, each account transaction records, can draw the whole stock for a period of time, and the overall demand for the stock stage? It should be no problem, at least in the general direction.
So, we put the needs of the transition to bitcoin transactions (not the exchange but the bitcoin network trading) to specific analysis. Under normal circumstances, changes in demand for goods which will appear the phenomenon? For the first demand, more and more people know this thing, then there will be a constant panic buying, panic buying turnover; for lower demand, you will find that people are less concerned on this item, then the holder of constantly looking for people to buy, while turnover becomes very small.
For bitcoin, when demand is high turnover, turnover also involves both factors, namely the chain of total transactions (bitcoin number), and the number of active exchange account number. Then the total turnover rate / = chain active trading address number, because bitcoin enough dispersion, so the data sufficient support for bitcoin demand rate, the exchange rate gradually increased, it is can be seen as demand increases, it can be seen as reducing demand decreases, two data synchronization can fall by up for reference, two data of one of the parties do not appear contrary to reference (mean, the longer the period about the representative). In different periods, the same number of addresses, the chain of transactions should be corresponding to the higher price, if the contrary is undervalued.
It is a pity that there is no such index, the index also belongs to the author through a series of logical manner, although there is no data after a lot of argument, but the theory is feasible, accurate measure if not entangled in the short term, we can only through the active address direction is to determine whether the current price is undervalued.
According to the above, we can see that in September 10, 2017 and November 20, 2018, with the same number of addresses, then these two days corresponding bitcoin prices are around $4000, near $4500, then the two prices basically close, but there are still down space, but the space is not large, so we not to ta theory that has been reached at the end of.
Of course, the universal law of the market is certainly more than this one, we’re in the coin circle, to have a pair of eyes found the law, so as to become an independent school, and most people have competition, independent thinking, their own trading system, trial and error, do not have to Ever-victorious general.