Bitcoin: Winter flow depletion or belief collapse?

The author | block chain 007

The data support | data

One

9 2008 years, with the collapse of Lehman brothers for the beginning of the financial crisis erupted in the United States and spread to the whole world. To cope with the crisis, governments take measures such as quantitative easing, large financial institutions in crisis relief because of their own negligence. These measures provide a broad question, and once led to the “occupation of Wall Street” movement, the mass reached the peak of traditional financial anger.

At this time, A name Nakamoto is thinking about how to fight against the existing monetary system, he believes that the outbreak of the financial crisis is a result of excessive monetary system existing in.

2008 years and 10 month 31 days, New York time 2:10 in the afternoon, in an ordinary cryptography mailing list, hundreds of members have received claiming to be Nakamoto’s e-mail: “I have been studying a new electronic cash system, this is the point to point, without any the trusted three party”.

Then Nakamoto and lead them to a nine page white paper, which describes a new fully decentralized monetary system. The same year 11 month 16 day, Nakamoto bitcoin released the first version of the code.

1 2009 3, Nakamoto bitcoin dug the first block, block creation in a small server located in Finland of Helsinki (Genesis Block), and won the first award of mine “50 bitcoin.

Bitcoin was born.

Bitcoin is an idealist products, which led to different routes today dispute foreshadowed.

When we are in the height of one meter four, we are idealists, just as Javier said “we insist on one thing, and not because it will have effect, but firmly believe that this is the right thing to do.”

Block chain technology is a group of liberal Austria school economists and practitioners initiated IT, promote the construction of the whole system is the initial push some of the top programmers and hackers, mathematical genius, cryptographers and colored odd different disabilities completed, they created a top of the league. As with any such organization, they have in common is a high IQ, highly voluntary, highly respected liberal.

Under ideal conditions, although the block chain is to fight against the center of the monetary system (financial crisis) and the inability of mass exploitation (inflation tax and Seigniorage etc.). Revolution must carry a banner, the banner of a “populist” stand up, immediately resonate, rapid fire all over the world.

But, Some places have lakes, rivers and lakes where, there is a benefit, cannot withstand a single blow in front of the interests of idealism.

Bitcoin in just eight years, has created tens of millions of times the growth has created countless rich mythology, fame and fortune under internal differentiation.

To the programmer as the representative of the “(faith to the center of economic liberals) fundamentalists” advocate “to the center of the mind, and keep the number of the original 21 million bitcoins unchanged, reducing the transaction cost through the program updates, this is good for the majority of Chinese chive were. But bitcoin capacity (capitalists, miners group) “the revisionist” who advocated the expansion (actually inflation), and eventually replace the global central bank, collect seigniorage.

“Revisionist” representative is “Australia Nakamoto” said Craig Wright, on behalf of the fundamentalists is bitcoin, Wu Jihan. The route and the concept of irreconcilable differences, the two sides broke out “war”, hope to influence the stable operation and transaction other encryption currency by force, which increases the bitcoin price uncertainty, people began to sell.

While Australia Nakamoto also threaten miners, if he will support Jihan Wu, with lots of dollars to sell bitcoins, he believes bitcoin market there is no space, bitcoin will drop below $1000, which exacerbated the bitcoin prices.

Stories in the history of the battle line to split as Liangshan beyond count, Song Jiang and Chao Gai, Chao Gai is typical of the Greenwood school, and Song Jiang is a typical Zhaoan, to take refuge in the forests, sloppily, free and easy, a want to go down the back sealing wife yam son system “, which is two the idea of the modern division; the idea of division of civil war……

Perhaps the Cong bitcoin is also in the creation of unexpected events. But after all, Both the trigger for the collapse of bitcoin, demise is idealistic.

The afternoon of November 20, 2018, bitcoin price breakdown $4300 line of defense, the RMB price below 30000 yuan, a new low peak from December 17, 2017 rose to a maximum of $19891.99, bitcoin plunged nearly 80%.

In eleven months ago, bitcoin once rose to the highest $19891.99. In 2009 the first announced bitcoin exchange rate is $1 for 1309.03 coins, 8 years time, bitcoin is over about 20000000 times, perhaps there is no asset price growth can match.

2017 is the most beautiful year ring coins, coins than the special price rises, and air exchange, coins, machine and other derivative field also created a rich mythology.

Two

In “the new Palgrave Dictionary of economics”, the definition of bubble economy is: The term “bubble state, is a series of assets or a sharp rise in a continuous process, the prices will start to rise of the expected price, and thus attract new buyers These people generally want to reap profits through the sale and use of these assets and their ability to generate profits is not interested in. With the expected price is often reversed, then prices plummeted, the last financial crisis to end.”

Buffett commented on bitcoin on several occasions: stay away from bitcoin, it is basically a mirage; you can’t do the valuation for bitcoin, it is not a production value of the assets, it is true that the intrinsic value of the asset bubble; the same can be simply defined as the assets, in the rest of life. All the discounted value of future cash flow.

The tulip bubble burst.

Bubbles generally go through three stages. Time back in seventeenth Century in Holland, in the beginning, the tulip as a status symbol, tulip craze quickly spread over the entire merchant class, then the price of slow heating, to attract more people, social capital to join more speculative tulip trades.

Then the bubble accelerated expansion, the market crazy, spread all kinds of flourishes story, almost no one I do not know the tulip hot, even the farmer, the maid, cleaners are joining the tulip trades.

Finally, in February 4, 1637, could be an ordinary day, but the bubble burst without warning the inflated, tulip prices plunged more than. The number of weeks, a drop of more than 90%. People who have a wealth of instant evaporation, come to nothing.

“Oh, citizens, this is the frenzy of retribution!” Rousseau sent a ruthless satire to people injured in the tulip bubble.

Managing director of Bank of Hong Hao sent a picture like this. Bubble birth and end is always surprisingly similar, says this is not the same, in fact every time.

Brother Lee to a circle of famous world currency: The blockchain consensus value is not worth the money…… But because too many people, there is a consensus, will produce value.

Bitcoin is the standard of zero sum game, the previous profit is not from bitcoin itself generated cash flow, but the later generation of the expected price, have pushed up the price of the purchase. So, in many people’s rising consensus, there have been people who fought. When prices fell after the expected reversal, is the reflexive instead of self reinforcing, everyone suddenly do birds scattered.

Reflect the popularity of the BTC Google global search heat and the change of the price of bitcoin is very consistent.

In addition, the history of the number of bubble fermentation time than after the collapse of the long time, bitcoin bitcoin or vice versa, but none around.

Therefore, bitcoin consensus is more firm, foam is more rigid, the most difficult is to determine the consensus guidelines to follow is strength, therefore, can only be a bystander. After all, our world is full of absurdity, our life is absurd, you cannot measure.

For example, diamonds in a few generations in consciousness formed a strong consensus, a pile of carbon atoms has become a symbol of loyalty to love. Bitcoin is the test ideal country technology, a force in the modern Internet technology code screw tip.

The tulip is behind a motley crew, and the supply is very flexible, there are other ornamental plants as reference, the tulip bubble burst, will not have the opportunity to get back. While bitcoin to the center, no valuation reference, in the process of the rise after 93%, 88% and 70% decline, but finally again hit a new high, consensus and tulip bitcoin consensus can not be generalized.

Three

The consensus is based on flow, Flow is the core competitiveness, to talk about quality in traffic.

Li Xiaolai in the “self cultivation” a leek book: why this began to fall you buy it, you start up a paradoxical situation to sell it, because every time the end of the market fundamental reason is the depletion of funds admission. Like a bull market to buy vegetables aunt approach, there are new to offer new capital, market is not the end.

For example, the Internet economy is actually the flow of the economy. And now has entered the flow depletion era, the rest of the game player can only grab traffic bayonet bayonet. IResearch data show that in 2018 Q3 mobile Internet users at the end of the size of the chain of Q2 increased by only 27 million units, the monthly growth rate narrowed to less than 1% of China Mobile’s total Internet users become saturated, the era of the stock dividend.

The flow of the stock of the game, quickly jump quickly, vibrato and other short video game Tencent red, crowding out flow length. Back to bitcoin, reaching in 2017 madness highs, no wonder bitcoin, bust.

Jin Yong wrote: in this unfeeling Valley, 3 people wandering around for several months, Yang Guo is always Frence leave. Six big grief, but Cheng Ying said: “three younger sister, you see these clouds together and together, scattered and scattered, life is so. Why are you so upset?” She that said, they couldn’t help crying.

Some flow like the clouds gathered together and scattered, a group of a motley crew gathered together, to their respective Duolu consensus short life cycle.

The film comes with meat are top traffic, single micro-blog forwarding can be over ten million, instantly break the upper limit of the older generation of actors fee. Why would the issuer with the high price paid investment group not to face paralysis? The essence of high paycheck is the actor behind top flow and flow ability of team operation price, while acting just gifts.

However, this model is that the difficulties, not the quality of the flow is like a cloud, not acting these basic blessings, sooner or later the recession. This famous actor flow summer hit TV drama ratings have one, while Canada Wu Yifan also caught the brush list question, flow niche facing the overall collapse.

From the perspective of traffic quality, bitcoin because of Bob’s ideal and faith with value creation, consensus traffic intensity ratio flow do not know where to go to the small high, but this is a bitcoin crash often and often.

Therefore, “bitcoin bubble” is an objective fact, but there is a consensus of many people it is a worthy bubble “is also a fact. However, it has no valuation of the anchor, the depth to rise up high, cannot be measured. Behind bitcoin consensus with faith, faith how to measure? This decline will lead to technical school belief collapse?

So, I still eat melon theatre.

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