Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

The twelfth week of 2019 blockchain two Market Report

In March 17, 2019 -2019 year in March 23rd

This report focuses on the content:

  • This week the market trend: narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

  • Nine exchange volume: the total turnover increased by 13.7%

  • Digital asset turnover week cumulative value: rose 10 percentage points, trading activity increased

  • Exchange wallet balance: BTC exchange balance decreased by 5.34%, USDT balance decreased by 0.76%

  • OTC premium rate: down, is still high

  • Bitcoin volatility index: volatility decline, market sentiment from greed to fear

  • Futures contract: short-term futures discount rate rise, bearish is expected to increase

  • The macro perspective: the external capital market Pudie, A stock market thriving

  • Market summary

This report details:

1. this week, the market trend: narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

At the time the report (March 23, 2019), Saturday the global block chain assets total market capitalization of $140 billion 500 million, $140 billion 100 million over the same period last week rose $400 million, or 0.31%; the market volume of $31 billion 230 million, $33 billion 190 million over the same period last week fell 5.89%.

This week (month 3 2019 17 to 2019 years 3 months 23 days) Bletchley 10 index closed at 449.03 point, 451.33 point decline over the same period last week 0.5%; Bletchley 20 index closed at 467.96 point, 458.09 point last year rose 2.2%; Bletchley 40 index closed at 69.31 point, 67.60 point last year rose 2.5%; Bletchley composite index at 191.69 point, 192.09 point decline over the same period last week 0.2%.

This week the market for a third consecutive week to close up, but the mainstream currency gained momentum by certain containment, small and medium-sized market currency led the market. The market this week in the 1400 billion dollar fluctuated, Tuesday evening by Beijing mutual Gold Association released risk warning, diving market dropping 1380 billion dollars, then the shock upstream, trading risks for 1400 billion the dollar mark last year rose 0.31%, at the same time bitcoin firm $4000. From the volume point of view, the recent admission outside the capital less, with the rebound in approaching the previous chip intensive region, mainstream currency rising momentum is weak, while the recent external capital market turns cold and more risk averse or will further affect the admission of incremental funding, the short-term market callback risk.

Figure 1 this week the world’s total assets market value chain block

 Block chain secondary market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 2 in the past three months the global block chain of digital assets total value changes

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

The past three months, the market is still in a slump since last November since the oversold rally, the overall in the 110 billion to 140 billion dollars in box interval fluctuations, the market volume is shrinking sharply early; this week the market trend continued last week, the second time to break the box on the track after the $140 billion mark integer rose difficult, short-term need to pay attention to the callback risk . The current encryption currency market is still a lack of sufficient demand to support incremental funding approach, the market performance is more capital stock of the game results, but the recent stock funds over the years has activated the market sentiment rebounded. The long term, the bitcoin currency is still the mainstream in the low valuation, investors will be able to set a stop point, along the direction of least resistance investment market.

This Thursday, Beijing Internet Financial Industry Association issued “on the prevention of” virtual currency “” ICO “” STO “” stable currency “and other variants of the name of illegal financial activity risk warning”, “alert criminals to IFO and IEO retrofit names issued tokens”. Beijing Internet financial industry associations by civil society groups, Beijing Municipal Bureau of Civil Affairs approved the establishment, does not belong to the government departments do not have law enforcement powers, but can the hot phenomenon of sound supervision, market risk warning, to protect the interests of small investors. The notice issued after the platform was difficult currency fell, then the market calm, as the current market volatility has not occurred. Although the early IEO projects generally profitable, but with market participants competing influx of new money issuance rate may be greater than the admission funds rate, there are still likely to break the IEO project.

2. nine exchange volume total turnover rose 13.7%

This week the nine Exchange Week cumulative total turnover of 249 billion 900 million yuan, compared with last week rose 30 billion 100 million yuan, or 13.7%. The global market capitalization of $1400 million and the upper and lower volatility, market trading atmosphere rebounded this week, nine exchange total daily turnover in the 357 billion yuan fluctuate.

From the transaction structure, turnover accounted for the top three exchange are Huobi (25.71%), Bithumb (23.02%), BitMEX (17.62%), the third nine exchange exchange trading volume accounted for the total volume of 66.4%, 0.9% declined last week; the week Huobi cumulative volume last week rose 116%.

Figure 3 in recent weeks nine exchange total volume change

 Block chain secondary market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: non small TokenMania.

Fig 4 Changes of nine exchange history total daily trading volume

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: non small TokenMania.

From the perspective of time longer, the recent nine exchange total daily trading volume shrinking, basically in shock low interval of 30 billion to 40 billion yuan range this year, taking into account the existing exchange amount of brush, the actual volume may be lower. Asset Management Co Bitwise said this week, by testing the recognition exchange brush false statistics found, bitcoin stock trading volume in 95% forged.

From the global trading volume of LocalBitcoins, the recent global bitcoin field of foreign exchange trading volume in the $50 million under a slight concussion, last week rose 6.48% to $51 million 960 thousand; China area bitcoin field of foreign exchange trading volume rose 8.85% to 25 million 440 thousand yuan. From the regional structure, the relatively strong demand for bitcoin OTC demand in the Middle East and South America countries and regions of the overall decline in February; in addition, bitcoin demand in Indonesia in the last two weeks OTC volume dropped significantly.

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins Chinese regional trading volume

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Indonesia area

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[note]: Nine exchange refers to the currency, coins, OKEX, fire CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Exchange rate: 3. digital assets rose 10 percentage points, trading activity increased

This week ten digital asset turnover week cumulative 185%, last week rose by 10 percentage points; this week turnover rate for the highest 30%, the lowest is 21%, maximum difference of 9 percentage points. Overall, nearly a month of market trading activity in the high.

Figure 8 nearly two weeks of the ten asset average exchange rate changes

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

The details of the exchange rate in Figure 9 this week, the ten major asset

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

This week ten digital asset turnover rate except ETC showed a slight wave dynamic potential, ETC exchange rate appeared earlier in the week rose sharply. This week, the cumulative turnover of the top three were ETC (406%), LTC (348%), EOS (289%), the exchange rate changes last week to ETC (up 41%), LTC (Chi Ping), EOS (down 15%); turnover ranked three were ADA (33%) XRP, (37%), XLM (80%); the exchange rate rise last week before three ADA (or 58%), ETC (or 41%), XLM (or 36%).

[note] the exchange rate is ten (BTC, ETH, currency XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH) the average daily value.

4. exchange wallet balance: BTC exchange balance decreased by 5.34%, USDT balance decreased by 0.76%

This week BTC exchange balance decreased by 5.34% compared to last week, currency exchange records without exception. This week USDT exchange balance decreased by 0.76% compared to last week, the USDT flux (ERC-20 version USDT) was $2 billion 52 million, up 0.9% from last week.

Figure 10 the recent exchange of BTC balance and BTC price trend

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: TokenMania

Figure 11 USDT exchange balance changes

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: TokenMania

[note] exchange is covering wallet balance comprehensive data Bitfinex, OKEX, currency and other mainstream exchange

5.: the OTC premium rate down, is still high

OTC OTC premium rates reflect the price than the floor price premium level, but also capture the scattered field outdoor funds emotional tools. Generally speaking, the high premium rate means that the entry of outside capital to positive emotions, whereas the mean retail funds approach power is not high, even in the capital fled.

Figure 12 USDR / USD exchange rate

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: Poloniex, TokenMania

Figure 13 USDT premium index

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: CHAINEXT, TokenMania

This week the Poloniex exchange 1USDT against the 1USD all in the price premium status. This week the premium rate at the beginning of the week last week continued upward trend shock, Tuesday down, but there is still high. This week, the highest premium rate of 2.37%, the minimum premium rate 1.29%, closing at near 1.48%. At the same time, this week USDT OTC premium index slightly upward; the highest reach 101.58 points to close at 101.39. Nearly a month USDT premium level is not high, there is the possibility to approach outside the capital .

[note] USDT OTC discount or premium index is 100 USDT parity index greater than 100 represents USDT premium, less than 100 indicates that the discount of USDT.

6. bitcoin volatility index volatility decline, the market sentiment from greed to fear

Generally speaking, the level of fear of bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the market, the higher the value often reflects the trend of having the higher degree of divergence.

Figure 14 bitcoin volatility level BVOL24H

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 15 Greed & fear index

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, bitcoin price volatility index showed a downward trend. The opening value is 2, the highest value of 2.09, the lowest 0.7, closing value of 0.89, a decline of 55.5%. At the same time, Greed & fear index over the same period decreased from 58 to 44, the market sentiment from greed to fear and panic last week.

7. futures contracts: short-term futures discount rate rise, bearish is expected to increase

From the perspective of futures contracts, long-term contract price of nearly two weeks of bitcoin in different period basically in the area below the spot price, a premium status, different period of contract basis to continue to expand, short-term bearish sentiment was lifted. From the term structure, this week OKEX week 0.46% times a week, the average premium contract; contract average premium 0.32% quarterly contracts; the average premium rate is 0.59%, the discount rate increased by 0.26 percentage points; the average premium for 0.07% BitMEX sustainable contract. Overall, this week, bitcoin futures overall basis is the diffusion condition, the short-term bearish market is expected to increase.

Asset Management Co Bitwise said this week, by testing the recognition exchange brush false statistics found, bitcoin stock trading volume in 95% forged, the actual average bitcoin trading volume is only about $273 million; therefore, bitcoin futures trading on the market price of the actual impact than expected .

Figure 16 in the past two weeks bitcoin futures and spot prices

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 17 in the past two weeks bitcoin futures premium rate

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[note] report futures premium rate according to the BitMEX data to calculate BXBT spot

8. macro perspective: external capital markets Pudie, A stock market thriving

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency worth as an alternative asset part configuration . For investors, the differentiation of all kinds of assets return on assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to the demand for investment funds asset allocation among different asset classes, with the combination of asset classes in the same risk diversification, under the condition of a broader portfolio can usually bring higher long-term return.

This week, bitcoin returns 0.26%, the rate of return on various assets in the top five; external capital markets Pudie, the S & P 500 index and the Nasdaq composite index is down 0.77% and 0.60% on the weekend, the German DAX index last week fell 2.75%; all kinds of assets A shares market thriving, is on the weekend rose 2.73%, following the tamp after 3000 again this week on 3100, Shanghai this week revealed the first 9 family board accepted Kechuang list of enterprises, total financing amount to 109.88 billion yuan.

This week the Fed statement, the 2019 is expected to raise interest rates from the previous year twice down to zero, and plans to shrink the table 9 month end. The Fed lowered its economic outlook, is expected in 2019 GDP growth of 2.1%, rather than the previously expected 2.3%. After the announcement, gold stocks once pulled up, the dollar index diving; after the Fed accidental release of dovish tone, the United States and the European PMI data released again increased lower than expected market fears.

On Friday the US Treasury yields 3 months for the first time since 2007, more than 10 year bond yields, forming a long-term earnings upside down, U.S. bond yields upside is the investors in the global economy recession fears directly; the stock market and the futures market are Europe was plunged Friday, the Dow index fell 460.19 points, S & P fell 1.9% since January, the worst performance; external capital markets Pudie make funds more risk averse, from market performance, hedge funds are still keen on the dollar, gold, bonds and other traditional havens; for digital currency market, external capital market turns cold and more risk averse or will affect the admission of incremental funding.

The domestic A shares last year has started to adjust, compared to the European and American stock market highs, the market valuation of A shares high safety cushion; since the beginning of A stock market rally rainbow as of March 22nd, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 24.47%, by the external market downturn, the short term A shares gained momentum in the long term, facing the impact of A shares of consumer goods, health care, public utilities and other anti cycle property and strong industry opportunity exists.

Figure 18 this week all asset dynamic income rate comparison

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: TokenMania

The dynamic benefits of nearly three years of all kinds of assets rate comparison, bitcoin earnings performance thriving. The last three years bitcoin dynamic income rate is 908.96%, ranked first at the same time all kinds of assets, and other assets yield gap. In addition to digital currency, other assets yield performance differentiation, stocks performed relatively well, the S & P 500 index rose 36.63%, the Nasdaq composite index rose 58.51%; at the same time, the Hang Seng Index rose 40.87%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.49%.

Figure 19 for nearly three years, all kinds of assets yield more dynamic

 Block chain two market report | narrow sideways, pay attention to short-term callback risk

Source: TokenMania

The strongest market volatility in the currency of the digital assets, and the rupture process of bubbles in the bubble, digital currency prices showed more soaring prices trend. Although digital currency market is still in a low volatility, the bull market also need longer time accumulation and brewing, but with foam extrusion, digital currency is still worth as an alternative asset allocation part.

9. market summary

Market trend: this week the market closed up for third consecutive weeks, but the mainstream currency gained momentum by certain containment, small and medium-sized market currency led the market. The market this week at $140 billion a barrel on Thursday evening, Beijing mutual Gold Association released risk warning, diving market dropping $138 billion, then the shock upstream, insurance keep the $140 billion mark last week, rose 0.31%, while bitcoin firm $4000 mark. From the volume point of view, the recent admission outside the capital less, with the rebound in approaching the previous chip intensive region, the mainstream at the same time, the recent rise in energy currency weakness, external capital market turns cold and more risk averse or will further affect the admission of incremental funding, the short-term market callback risk. The long term, the bitcoin currency is still the mainstream in the low valuation, investors will be able to set a stop point, along the direction of least resistance investment market.

Trading volume: this week nine Exchange Week cumulative total turnover of 2499 billion yuan, compared with last week rose 301 million, or 13.7%. The global market capitalization of $1400 million and the upper and lower volatility, market trading atmosphere rebounded this week, nine exchange total daily turnover in the 357 billion yuan fluctuate. The recent global bitcoin field of foreign exchange trading volume in the $50 million under a slight concussion, last week rose 6.48% to $51 million 960 thousand; China area bitcoin field of foreign exchange trading volume rose 8.85% to 25 million 440 thousand yuan. From the regional structure, the relatively strong demand for bitcoin OTC demand in the Middle East and South America countries and regions of the overall decline in February; in addition, bitcoin demand in Indonesia in the last two weeks OTC volume dropped significantly.

Exchange rate: this week, ten weeks a total of 185% digital asset turnover rate, compared with last week rose by 10 percentage points; this week the highest turnover was 30%, the lowest was 21%, extreme difference of 9 percentage points. Overall, nearly a month of market trading activity in the high. This week ten digital asset turnover rate except ETC showed a slight wave dynamic potential, ETC exchange rate appeared earlier in the week rose sharply. This week, the cumulative turnover of the top three were ETC (406%), LTC (348%), EOS (289%), turnover ranked three respectively is ADA (33%), XRP (37%), XLM (80%).

Exchange wallet balance: this week the exchange balance of BTC last week fell 5.34%, no abnormal currency exchange record. This week USDT exchange balance decreased by 0.76% compared to last week, the USDT flux (ERC-20 version USDT) was $2 billion 52 million, up 0.9% from last week.

OTC premium rate: this week Poloniex exchange 1USDT against the 1USD all in the price premium status. This week the premium rate at the beginning of the week last week continued upward trend shock, Tuesday down, but there is still high. This week, the highest premium rate of 2.37%, the lowest premium rate of 1.29%, closing at 1.48% nearby. At the same time, this week USDT OTC premium index slightly upward; the highest reach 101.58 points to close at 101.39. Nearly a month USDT premium level is not high, there is the possibility to approach outside the capital .

Bitcoin price volatility index : this week, bitcoin price volatility index showed a downward trend. The opening value is 2, the highest value of 2.09, the lowest 0.7, closing value of 0.89, a decline of 55.5%. At the same time, Greed & fear index over the same period decreased from 58 to 44, the market sentiment from greed to fear and panic last week.

Futures contract: nearly two weeks of bitcoin in different period of long-term contract price in the area below the spot price, a premium status, different term contract basis to continue to expand, short-term bearish sentiment was lifted. From the term structure, this week OKEX week contract premium 0.46% times a week on average; the average contract premium 0.32% quarter contracts; the average premium rate is 0.59%, the discount rate increased by 0.26 percentage points; the average premium for 0.07% BitMEX sustainable contract. Overall, this week, bitcoin futures overall basis is the diffusion condition, the short-term bearish market is expected to increase.

The macro perspective: this week, bitcoin yields 0.26%, in all kinds of assets yields ranked five; external capital markets Pudie, the S & P 500 index and the Nasdaq composite index is down 0.77% and 0.60% on the weekend, the German DAX index last week fell 2.75%; all kinds of assets A shares market thriving, last week rose 2.73%, following the solid 3000 points again this week to stand 3100.

This week the Fed statement, the 2019 is expected to raise interest rates from the previous year twice down to zero, and plans to shrink the table 9 month end. The Fed lowered its economic outlook, the 2.1% is expected to grow GDP 2019, rather than the previously expected 2.3%. After the Fed’s accidental release dovish tone, the United States and the European PMI data released again increased lower than expected market fears. On Friday the US Treasury yields 3 months for the first time since 2007, more than 10 year bond yields, forming a long-term earnings upside down, showing investors concerns about the global economic downturn; European stock and futures markets have been tumbled Friday, the Dow index fell 460.19 points, S & P fell 1.9%, the worst record in January performance; external capital markets Pudie make funds more risk averse, from market performance, hedge funds are still keen on the dollar, gold, bonds and other traditional havens; for digital currency market, external capital market turns cold and more risk averse or will affect the admission of incremental funding.

The domestic A shares last year has started to adjust, compared to the European and American stock market highs, the market valuation of A shares high safety cushion; since the beginning of A stock market rally rainbow as of March 22nd, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 24.47%, by the external market downturn, the short term A shares gained momentum will face the impact, in the long term, A shares market of consumer goods, health care, public utilities and other anti cycle property and strong industry opportunity exists.

This week’s events : March 21st, Beijing Internet Financial Industry Association issued “on the prevention of” virtual currency “” ICO “” STO “” stable currency “and other variants of the name of illegal financial activity risk warning”, “alert criminals to IFO, IEO and other tricks over new names issued tokens”. Beijing Internet financial industry associations by civil society groups, Beijing Municipal Bureau of Civil Affairs approved the establishment, does not belong to the government departments do not have law enforcement powers, but can the hot phenomenon of sound supervision, market risk warning, to protect the interests of investors. The notice issued after the platform was difficult currency fell, then the market calm, as the current market volatility has not occurred. Although the early IEO projects generally profitable, but with market participants competing influx of new money issuance rate may be greater than the admission funds rate, there are still likely to break the IEO project.

This week, the Tokyo District Court issued a report to disclose the claims and the financial situation of Mt.Gox. Mt.Gox was the world’s largest bitcoin transaction exchange, on April 2014 formally apply for liquidation. At present, Mt.Gox exchange income 141 thousand BTC, 142 thousand BCH count and $629 million 600 thousand in cash; according to the exchange of the two court claims that the exchange was identified claims for 685 billion 730 million yen, or about $6 billion 600 million, is not recognized the debt of 216 billion 210 million yen, or about $1 billion 950 million. Mt.Gox exchange in the insolvent state, if the cash reimbursement means exchange or will once again sell BTC, a short period of time may have a greater impact on the market price; the final payment scheme or released in May.

This week, CoinMarketCap announced the launch of two kinds of encryption currency benchmark index, NASDAQ index of global on-line data services, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Eikon, and the German Stock Exchange B RSE Stuttgart. The CMC200 index contains bitcoin, covering more than 90% of the world’s encryption money market; while the CMC200EX index tracking encryption currency market performance without bitcoin conditions. Encryption currency index on-line is not only conducive to the promotion of encryption currency, improve price transparency, but also means that digital currency market in the mainstream capital framework and a step forward.

 

Risk warning

Callback risk

The domestic and foreign regulatory policies than expected

 

Author: TAMC Research Institute analyst Yao Huawei

Disclaimer

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