Reprinted from 100, author: Jinke information security
Encryption technology may not die, but bitcoin future money dreams are gone. The contradiction between it as a medium of exchange and a speculative asset is too big. According to the bitstamp platform, 6:24 PM Beijing time, bitcoin fell below $3500, currently at $3492.50.
In each encryption currency forums and blogs, this month the keyword is “surrender”. With bitcoin since 2017 years 10 months for the first time below $5000, industry leaders are becoming more and more fierce mutual accusations, and encryption currency enthusiasts and critics of the war, which says it is legal tender victory. Although bitcoin and bitcoin may not end, but bitcoin crash highlights a problem: to encrypt currency into the mainstream in the end whether it is worth.
There are many reasons why we worry about encryption currency, including large fluctuations (bitcoin value within a week to evaporate 30%), fraud and manipulation, many for the first time issued tokens (ICO) proved to be a hoax, and it was a money laundering and terrorist use. However, regulation has been difficult to keep up with the pace, it is a common problem in the technology sector. Be not at all surprising is that the proposed “self regulation” has not been in place: Wen clervaux (Winklevoss), virtual goods association of twin brothers (Virtual Commodity Association) was founded in August, aims to provide “a spontaneous industry self regulatory organization, although the crypto currency has collapsed, but the association remained silent.
The government performance is more active. The UK financial conduct authority (FCA) are discussing a ban on encryption currency derivatives, and the British House of Commons (Commons) of a special committee denounced the encryption asset market is the “wild west”, called for regulation of it. Hongkong Securities Regulatory Commission (SFC) said this month, is studying the regulatory encryption currency exchange plan. In September this year, a report from the New York attorney general’s office said that there is a conflict of interest in the industry, but also did not take adequate measures to prevent market manipulation.
For bitcoin late prices, Oanda Corp Asia Pacific head of trading Stephen Innes that has not yet bottomed out. Innes by phone to Bloomberg said that his basic prediction is the short term, bitcoin prices will fluctuate between $3500 to $6500 over the next year January may fall to $2500.
Bloomberg quoted eToro analyst Mati Greenspan said, the market value of the largest digital currency bitcoin fell $5000 support, a support or $3500. However, analysts have predicted that bitcoin could fall to $1500, more than the current level fell more than 70%.
The reason for this week encrypted digital currency collective slump, Public opinions are divergent. Among them, a large background is BCH (bitcoin cash) in November 15th second hard bifurcation. This time, BCH faces a hard bifurcation, is the essence of Craig Steven Wright (Australia is called “Macao Satoshi”) spoiler, BCH community face split situation.
But given the encryption currency to the center of the world, let the virtual currency on track is a thankless task. The global Anti Money Laundering Mechanism of the Financial Action Task Force (Financial Action Task Force) concluded that “part of a virtual currency system will be located in the lack of sufficient (anti money laundering) jurisdiction and control measures”. In other places, to circumvent the ban is emerging in Hong Kong currency encryption: encryption hardware manufacturer Ledger launched a regional business in Hongkong, in order to meet the demand for offshore Chinese encryption assets, bypassing a ban on holding such assets in mainland law.
However, has provided valuable experience in crypto currency. It is proved that people dissatisfied with the current payment system, prompting banks and the government realized that must improve digital currency degree. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposed the establishment of the central bank currency (Central Bank Digital digital Currencies, CBDC), which is a legal tender only in digital form, to be easy to use cash and bank account system combine to verify the transaction. The implementation of CBDC requires a large number of tests: a report of IMF acknowledged that CBDC may mainly in the bank not so safe countries welcome, and worry about using CBDC may cause the number of bank runs. However, CBDC may one day provide a ratio of real cash and credit cards faster, cheaper and safer choice for consumers.
Block chain technology may have other purposes, although this has not been proven. The information network launched in October last year, the inter-bank (Interbank Information Network) is difficult to test the blockchain trading technology between the more than 75 banks. WAL-MART (Walmart) is used to track the test block chain products.
Bloomberg analysts pointed out that the current round of digital currency bubble burst, origin, increase supervision of currency and exchange within the circle of confusion and fighting, the situation in this week have increased. In addition, the biggest victim of digital currency year slump is the price peaked on the occasion of the influx of this market retail, and NVIDIA provides mining chip business.
KPMG (KPMG) warned last week that in bitcoin and other encryption currency has not yet been classified as legal tender cases, to be used as a store of value is a “stupid”; encryption currency and asset boom to “system management”, which is expected to achieve this year, but did not see the old concrete measures landing, so global banks and financial institutions are on the sidelines, waiting for regulatory action.
Last week, the Commission announced the first SEC civil penalties for financing decision tokens of ICO, Airfox and Parago Coin, the two companies issued by ICO has not been registered as securities, the need to pay fines of $25 million to compensate investors. SEC chairman Jay Clayton said earlier this year, in addition to bitcoin and etheric coins, all digital coins or tokens are needed to be regulated securities. This caused the market panic on the strict supervision.
The European regulatory attitude is not optimistic. Benoit Coeure executive director of the European Central Bank last week in the bank for the bank for International Settlements BIS said in a speech, bitcoin is the combination of foam, Ponzi scheme and environmental disaster”. He acknowledged that bitcoin creative is very clever, but not every idea is a good idea, in many ways, bitcoin is evil product after the financial crisis.
Encryption currency may not yet be dead, but the bitcoin currency should become the future dreams have been shattered. The contradiction between it as a medium of exchange and a speculative asset is too big. But it caused the potential of digital currency debate is valuable.