Editor’s note: last week, the daily planet Odaily interviewed the whole currency block chain browser Tokenview . Author Shi Jinhe I talked to, when the chain data accumulated to a certain level, a number of indicators and the correlation between digital currency prices began to appear, some conclusions can be used not only as a part of the data service, delivery to the trading mechanism, as optimization model and strategy of nourishment, also helps the individual traders to better understand the overall situation of the market. This week, “we have Tokenview background data, in the three major public chain over the past year trading and user data as samples, through two kinds of mainstream valuation theory, and obtained some funny little discovery.
This article from the Odaily Research Institute of daily planet partners Tokenview .
BTC price is still less than half of last year
The first quarter of last year, BTC prices fell from $17000 to $10000 the following. Today, BTC prices are still hovering around $4000. ETH and EOS in the mainstream currency in 2018 “unlimited scenery” with BTC unable to get up after a fall.
Although the market is bleak, but from the chain index and valuation point of view, this winter is not so cold as we think.
We have the BTC, ETH and EOS for example, starts from the basic data about.
The basic data and trends
1. basic indicators: transaction transaction number and quantity
Last year, BTC, ETH and EOS on the chain number of transactions and the amount is a slight increase in stable state , the market and the contrast: although prices have dropped significantly, but the chain of trading activity is not damaged.
This is a very good signal, the transaction remains active, means that the three major public chain is steadily developing. As long as the price is still developing, the rebound is a matter of time.
Specifically, the three major public chain, the growth trend of BTC the number of transactions and the number of indicators is the most obvious:
While the two index of ETH growth trend is not obvious, but remained stable:
The most obvious is EOS, but the contrast of falling prices and heat fading, EOS index is still stable transaction basis:
2. user base index added and active.
If a simple analogy address for the user, through the new and active address two indicators can see three male users in active ecological chain and growth.
Similar transactions based indexes, chain users also not because of market volatility and apparent loss, were stable at current levels. This means that no matter from the transaction or the user level, 3 the public in terms of value chain is almost unaffected.
Price and valuation
In the part of basic data, we review the overall trend of BTC, ETH and EOS over the past year, we see with three common valuation chain.
The valuation can to some extent reflect the three common chain theory of price position, if the market price (as we see in exchange traded at a price) than the theoretical price is high, indicating that the current price is overvalued currency position, follow-up may fall; otherwise it is undervalued position, subsequent growth may have.
We selected two kinds of valuation theory: NVT network model based on value and PMR model based on the theory of Metcalf.
NVT model shows that the current BTC and EOS prices historically low valuation, the valuation of ETH is at the normal level:
According to the results of PMR model, we found that BTC and ETH are currently in the low valuation, the valuation bias in the normal EOS:
Overall, the current price of three common chain are in the normal low estimate level, which shows many bubbles and the price at the beginning of 2018 growth, growth in the value of the actual price decline is limited, follow-up, has returned to a reasonable valuation range.
Trading opportunities and benefits
Although the fundamentals and valuation to determine what is reasonable when the time of admission, but the concrete should be sold when what price to buy, that is still the problems plagued investors.
In the traditional financial markets have abundant fund products to choose from, so as long as investors in a reasonable time to buy funds, long-term holders can. In the encryption of money market fund market is not yet mature, but also has some trading team, relying on quantitative strategies mature in some risk in a considerable income. Based on Tokenview’s trading strategy as an example, simulation of the yield curve at BTC, ETH and EOS show the income situation, and at the same time show only long long and short two investment income comparison (Note: return theory without considering the transaction costs).
BTC: the comparison of net long “VS” long + short “
ETH: the comparison of net long “VS” long + short “
EOS: the comparison of net long “VS” long + short “
The results can be seen from the comparison of net income + long short “investment” the whole is greater than the long only “, this performance is very significant in BTC and ETH. Throughout the year, most of the fourth quarter of trading opportunities, this performance is very prominent in the EOS on the net, in December ushered in the steep curve.
Overall, the past year although the overall market in the crypto currency showed a trend of decline, the loss of a lot of heat, but it is a good thing. Impetuous faded, can let the public attention return technology and value itself. But people really love this industry, even if the experience of strong wind and big waves never left.
A qualified investors should be mindful of the transaction risk, the investment need to be cautious”. Encryption currency as a high-risk market, in addition to the market, pay more attention to basic indicators, such as valuation fundamentals and other data, can help us to make rational decision information.
Editor’s note: digital currency prices also affected by supply and demand (difficulty, circulation scenes etc.), policy situation, new / the number of active users, price manipulation, hacker attacks and other comprehensive influence of multi factors. As for BTC, ETH, clearly showing the greatest impact of the EOS of a week of events and data, the daily planet Odaily per week released “three currency weekly”, welcome to download APP , timely access to comprehensive information.
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