Delphi white paper interpretation (b): block chain forecast market, how to lead the forecast revolution


Reporter: pencil leadn

Recently, Delphy has been widely regarded as the first market-based forecasting market based on block chain. So, the traditional market has experienced what stage, faced with what kind of development problems, why use the block chain to transform the forecast market, for these problems, Xiao Bian for everyone to bring the Delphy team to the depth of this interpretation.n
nPredict the past life of the marketn
nPredict the market has a long history, from the earliest prediction of the Pope’s successor has been half a century ago, the Internet era after the rapid development. Since modern times, the market has been widely used including but not limited to financial, insurance, defense, health care, public management, sports, entertainment, and even within the enterprise forecast market.n

nTypical examples include:n
nnIn 1996, HP Labs and the California Institute of Technology co-chaired a three-year forecasting market experiment. The study conducted 12 different predictions for 20 to 30 employees from HP Labs from different departments (business, finance and marketing). Experiments show that more than 75% of the forecast is more accurate than Hewlett-Packard’s official forecast.n
nnnFor example, in 2003, the US Department of Defense published the “Policy Analysis Market” (later dubbed the “Terrorist Predictive Market”), which mainly predicted political and military turmoil in eight countries in the Middle East and its US response Is greatly improving the US intelligence gathering capacity in the world. Later, because of the opposition of the US Senators, was forced to cancel.n
nnnIn 2005, Google announced the use of forecasting markets within the company to predict product release dates, new office opening and other strategic events.n
nPredict the market in the country is still in the initial stage of developmentn
nAlthough the forecast market prospects, but the center of the forecast market development has not been large-scale popularity, the reason, we believe that the market is facing the following problems.n
nFirst of all, the forecast market because of its form of expression is a game of the process, easy to be linked with the gambling, by the government’s strict supervision. In fact, the market and the betting is expected to have the essential difference between the forecast marketn
nnFirst, and most of the betting is not the actual significance of different, predict the market is the general view of the future event summary, there is a strong practical significance. Such as the US presidential election forecast market can help financial markets do risk assessment, the public expectations of housing prices can become a reference for government macroeconomic regulation and control, the weather forecast market can help farmers hedge extreme weather risks.n
nnnSecond, the bet is just a simple game, has its own rules, from outside interference, compared to predict the market is subject to many factors, including economic data, sudden international events and other human or natural factors.n
nnSecond, in order to make the forecast market more effective, its participation in the sample must be enough, but because of the current forecast market penetration is low, greatly limits the improvement of prediction accuracy. At the same time, a centrally predicted market due to opacity, there is the possibility of being manipulated, can not self-evident innocence.n
nIn addition, in the traditional predictive market, the outcome of the event requires a spokesman to report, which means that the results report may be biased; due to a large number of centralized statistics and the presence of public opinion agencies, the market is expected to move the original professional bodies of the cake , And the existing knowledge and public opinion channels there is a competitive relationship, therefore, forecast the market so far has not been large-scale development.n
nHow does the block chain change the forecast market?n
nThere is no doubt that the market needs to be a decentralized, open and transparent, more adaptable to the global user participation platform to change the status quo, and this block with the characteristics of the natural match.n
nToday, Delphy predicts that the market APP as an Ethernet cloud node, to the block chain of these advantages landing, the traditional Internet can not be achieved on a large area to predict the market application, presented on the value of the Internet, and truly build a center Transparent, transparent and transparent forecast market.n
nnFirst, in the Delphy forecast market using block-chain technology, the data across the board consensus, can not be tampered with its centralization of the characteristics of the traditional forecasting market without the need to maintain the central server, but by the whole network node maintenance;n
nnnSecond, in the Delphy forecast market, each participant is on an equal footing, breaking the traditional centralization prediction team. The final outcome is determined by one or more decision makers, who can vote freely and no longer rely on a single central decision The Because of this, the forecasting platform can avoid being manipulated by the central organization, so that the self-evident innocence, the government regulatory restrictions to a minimum.n
nnnAt the same time, Delphy predicted that the market as a block chain platform, there is no border and time and space constraints, a block-based chain to predict the market to attract global users to participate in the prediction of the object is no longer limited to the traditional forecast market discussion topic, Global users can be based on their own interests, to ask questions and predict any questions. And because of its set of token coins, the user base will also be rapidly expanded.n
nnFinally, the digital currency and smart contract in the market based on the chain chain can ensure the automation and financial security of its implementation, and also provide better convenience and liquidity for the forecast market, with the traditional central platform Compared to the user in the block chain platform for each time to participate in the forecast are more secure, convenient, low cost.n
nTogether with Delphy, foresee the futuren
nWelcome to the Delpy Forecast Market Project, which will begin ICO in mid-Augustn
nWe can add Delphy Group (micro signal: delphy_org), apply to join the official group of Delphy, received the latest project information.n

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