Don’t pull what war bitcoin fell cause is its essence

This paper, one pulse commentator – yuan Shang

From 11 month 14 day, led to bitcoin encryption currency has experienced a new round of price diving, 11 to September 21, bitcoin has dropped to near $4400 $6400 from near the week fell more than 30%.

The market will blame the BCH operator for. The reason is, and this bit o Cong will sell a certain bitcoin currency to pull their bifurcation disc, after Wu Jihan bluntly, will allow BSV to charge on the exchange of currency, sell all.

But in one pulse, but this is the last straw for encrypted currency. Encryption currency falling essence or its use value problem.

The essential reason lies in the use of value fell

Bitcoin is like in the stock market index, the trading volume accounted for more than half of crypto currency driven by the global change.

Bitcoin can have such status in its use value.

Perhaps the Cong bitcoin creation when never expected, the digital product has now become an important tool of global market. But the core of the black market is to put money into white wash money, bitcoin as a money laundering tool.

All countries around the world have uncovered bitcoin money laundering case. For example China in last year’s case: in 2016 a suspect by fraud to get 12 million yuan, then he asked the bitcoin trading platform OKCoin customer service to Lin in the OKCoin account recharge 2 million yuan, and to the Kang of the agricultural bank card remittance. The website customer service staff found that remittances (Kang) and the account holder (Lin) not the same person, the suspect to provide identification of positive and negative pictures. The suspect then provides supplementary Lin copy of ID card, customer service personnel to check a copy of ID and registration information is consistent, agreed and completed the behavior of Lin account recharge.

Subsequently, the suspect by Lin’s account within 1.5 hours in 34 pen bought about $2 million worth of bitcoin 553.0346, and in 1 hours 4 pen all transferred to the criminal suspect in another bitcoin trading site “blockchain1” registered bitcoin money package, and in the Macao underground the bank will sell bitcoin.

Including the United States, Brazil, Japan, Russia and other countries have repeatedly bitcoin money laundering case cracked.

According to Professor Mei Dexiang of Industrial and Commercial University Of Chongqing School of finance investment the paper estimates — “research” into the world of the scale of money laundering Chinese data, about $1 trillion of global money laundering.

It is not clear through the scale of money laundering bitcoin. But bitcoin trading volume a year is far more than $1 trillion, and can not be used for money laundering.

According to the small data, 2018, bitcoin Trading Volume 24 hours peak in January 6th of $22 billion 500 million, $2 billion 400 million position in October 14th, the average daily trading volume of over $about 6000000000. Based on estimates, annual volume of 2.2 trillion dollars, exceeding the global scale of money laundering more than doubled.

Money laundering, speculative demand growth of encryption currency trading

This means that bitcoin trading is much larger than the size of its usage, this excess is speculative demand.

There are two kinds of speculators considerations, one is the firm belief, they believe that bitcoin will replace the central currency as a global currency. This means that the idea will use the value of bitcoin existing from the black market spread to the normal market, such as real, bitcoin will rise to heaven. But the central bank does not allow this do not say, also are considering the issue of their digital currency bitcoin, this ideal is very difficult. Therefore, this belief is not much.

The other is not considering its use value, only as a tool for asset allocation. But speculators will bitcoin valuation. For example, anchor discounted future cash flow, the mining cost anchor. But the crash let the value of both the anchor investors bankruptcy.

Said the first mining costs, the current bitcoin mining cost approximately at the level of $6000, less than $6000 means loss, which is why this fall, some bitcoin mining pool bankruptcy. Lost value judgement to mining cost value anchor speculators, have to leave.

Besides the anchor of discounted future cash flow, it is a bet on future bitcoin appreciation. But the speculators once found a loss, its value system collapsed, also have to leave.

Therefore, bitcoin prices should be the most stable is its true value, namely the market value of money laundering. Judging from the year 10000 billion dollars in the black market, the trading volume of about 27 billion dollars a day; if there are 50% market with bitcoin transactions, the daily trading volume of 13.5 billion dollars; if there are 70% market with bitcoin transactions, the daily turnover of 20 billion dollars.

May this round of bitcoin shot up to $20 thousand before admission, yet so many speculators as reference, to see the price of bitcoin. One pulse to do a simple calculation:

Of course, this model is not perfect, the core variables that how many black market transactions with bitcoin to box set, but only for reference.

While other encryption currency fell on the one hand is to follow the bitcoin, but more important is compared with the bitcoin no value. The encrypted currency value lies in its anchor chain anchor public assets, is the DAPP of its encryption currency consumption.

But now, hundreds of the chain, a million DAPP, use only hundreds of. According to dappreview statistics, in November 23rd, more than 1 people were using the etheric Fang DAPP is 221, accounting for 1330 of the etheric Fang statistics 16.61%. The most used DAPP less than 1000 people, more than 100 people use DAPP only 20.

EOS DAPP is the most popular, 179 projects, 1 people is 117, accounted for 65.36%. The highest amount of users for 20000 people.

The whole chain is less than 50 thousand passengers. A 50 thousand people to use the Internet product valuation reflects how much overestimates block chain products.

And more of the chain, the use of DAPP is too horrible to look at. For example, the nebula chain, known as the top public chain 6800 DAPP, actually used only 5, 10. The little ant NEO above DAPP 1 was hardly detected at people live on.

Therefore, the essential cause of this round of thousands of coins fell out of use in.

This is one pulse [] original, original link: https://www.blockob.com/posts/info/6283, please indicate the source!

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