From the perspective of the recent market crash data

 From the perspective of the recent market crash data

Character introduction:

Xu Yiji: Star Cloud chain founder CEO

Wang Guan: Star Cloud co-founder COO chain


Wang Zun: CEO

With high: Tokenclub CEO

Roy:Ruff Chain CEO

Daniel: capital senior partner

Du Hai: a senior researcher at the Institute of fire coins

Tang Zaiyang: a senior researcher at the Institute of nebula

Essam:NULS Overseas Community Manager

How to treat the 1. Bencibite currency fell, the results ahead of time whether there is anticipation? What kind of anticipation is achieved through the analysis of the data?

(Wang Guan) a: actually, the crash is tracked. Of course, we cannot exclude collapse before some other deeds influence. It is very common to predict some data analysis for the. Although we can find traces after currency prices plummeted, but before the incident is very difficult to determine the specific signal.

Another thing about the data is the “decision” game like. If everyone has the same results, people will make the decision of A. However, there are also some people according to their decision and make a decision about A B, even A and B based on decision and decision C. So, the decision may be very long chain. Therefore, even if we have a very precise data analysis results, we may still do not know which is the best decision. Therefore, by data analysis, we almost can not forecast any meaningful.

(Essam) a: there is one thing I can confirm: you cannot pre on such market fluctuations are predicted, especially at present people are still guessing blockchain will survive.

At present the data analysis about is very limited, and it may never find any major fluctuations in the market, just like what you see.

(also) a: a large part of the reason is the recent BCH hard bit bifurcation; Wu, Jihan and Craig Wright (claiming to be Nakamoto) there was a war between. The BCH bifurcation hard split the community, let many people see the influence such as Wu Jihan and Okumoto So who can easily to go to the center of the network. This caused people to lose confidence in the market, began selling bitcoin currency in which includes all kinds of encryption.

The results can be predicted, because the parties announced that they will launch a war, so this is not news. There is always risk. But when they finally decided to go to war, not everyone is aware that this is the time to withdraw from the market. This is the cause of the collapse. Crash BCH lost 50% of the market.

(Daniel) a: bitcoin is a successful example, but he was dragged down by more and more copycat coins

(Wang Zun) a: from the valuation model and the index point of view, you can see the downward trend of bitcoin. For example, NVT and NVM valuation model shows that bitcoin prices were overvalued in the near future.

Valuation view

The ratio of NVT (network value and transaction ratio) similar to the stock market using earnings.

According to Willy Woo, when BTC NVT ratio exceeds the upper limit, it indicates that BTC market value is not sustainable in the bubble when the bubble burst, and the price will drop BTC. Before the accident, BTC, NVT index in February 2018 rose to above the upper limit, and temporarily maintained at above the upper limit. According to the NVT BTC index, the market price can be regarded as overvalued, BTC prices will fall.

The NVM ratio shows the NVT ratio of similar results, it also shows that BTC prices decline.

Metric view

In the discussion of encryption currency market price, trading activity and the chain of active users (i.e. basic value) can not be ignored.

According to the statistical data of and the basic indicators, some indicators of BTC address and the address of the new activity continued to decline since 11 months based on. These changes show that the intrinsic value of the BTC actually did not increase, so the market prices are more likely to be due to the interference of market news and other factors; however, the real market lack of action on BTC.

Therefore, based on these indicators, BTC prices are not surprising.

2. according to the analysis of the data, for the subsequent market how? What is the token market plays an important role?

(Wang Guan) a: data analysis of the general state of the subsequent market is very wide, we do not know which one is accurate in the future. So the answer is that we do not know how the future. For this market, we know that BTC, ETH and USDT plays a very important role, BCH bifurcation also has great influence on the market.

3. in the data analysis of the biggest problem encountered is what? At present the blockchain data in what?

(Wang Zun) a: the biggest problem is the lack of analysis of the data, which is also the shortcomings: lack of market data and explore more dimensions, for data mining.

The study found that the currently open, the data dimension is relatively single, most based on the chain index. In fact, there are still many can assist research to data mining and exploration. But the market can provide the depth of data mining is very few, is committed to doing it.

For instance

Based on the common data chain such as the number of transactions, the transaction amount, the number of active. Dmitry Kalichkin and Clearblocks Metcalfe ‘s model based on Law in doing, using the active address number, number of transactions and other basic indicators. A problem when we think about the application of the theory is that how to define the active address? Zhang et al (2015) paper in the use of Facebook monthly active address for currency valuation, encryption, whether the address is the optimal number of daily active variables? Week of activity or monthly active address is a better measure of the encryption monetary value? And we can use many ways to define active? With continuous active more appropriate, or with the active accumulated better and so on.

In addition, the “active address” can also be combined with the new address for research, such as the day of active address, how many new address is the active, what proportion? The new address of the active can last long?

The discussion about the deeper data chain, is rarely seen in the market. The data for practitioners to understand and concern at present more to stay in the transaction data, such as exchange price, volume and so on. This is what we think in terms of data shortage and regret.

(also) answer: Although blockchain data are open to anyone, but there are still some challenges:

Too much data (Ethernet square close to 1TB, depending on your node set)

To obtain data on the unrestricted access, you need a complete node

Many people with limited blockchain browser data interactive way

There were hundreds of the data stored in the GB block chain, so it’s hard to effectively organize and screening these data to obtain useful information.

In addition, although there are many chain block data service node, but the data service node such as external download limit for 3000 records, through the API request limit is 10000 records. Analysis of the data to understand the market or of different types, you need more data, there are few sites will provide these data. The option is to build data nodes complete. However, this will have higher technical requirements, such as Parity or Geth popular software nodes tend to use the command line interface.

(Daniel) a: Well, it depends on what kind of data you are talking about.

As a liquidity provider, the data is important for us to market data, rather than block chain application data, our data is more effective. The challenge we face is that around there are a lot of false data, such as the project of community quantity, meaningless media exposure quantity.

Is the lack of the authenticity of the data, which can lead to all kinds of data distortion.

(Wang Guan) answer: at present, our biggest challenge is not enough data. Usually, we only have two types of data, transaction and contract intelligent call. In exchange, they may have a user account ID. However, this is not enough.

Another problem is how to extract useful information from these data. For a transfer transaction, we can acquire some metadata such as from address, to address, transaction value, block height etc..

4. in addition to transactions outside the block chain data you think what purpose?

(with high) answer: from my point of view, the blockchain future applications including ID verification, contract signing, between financial services provider data sharing

(Wang Guan) a: in theory, we can destroy a national chain like block according to the data, through the implementation of economic sanctions to destroy a country. Unfortunately, the current block chain only simple and intelligent trading contracts, and not what do these data. We expect the blockchain will have more applications and more data in the future. But it is unclear other uses block chain data is what.

A test is possible, by constructing a block tracking hidden information so that the development of the exchange graph. According to the transaction graph, we can evaluate the account with some algorithms, such as PageRank or our Nebula index (NR). Note that the control (e.g., Sybil attack) is more common in the block chain system, it is necessary to consider the anti manipulation.

(Roy) answer: at present, there are some growing Dapp, similar to the mobile application ecosystem early. Encryption cat similar to the early fruit ninja, we have fomo3D and all kinds of gambling games on the EOS, although it is still in the early development of the industry, but the changes happen sooner than you think.

(Du Hai) a: block chain infrastructure, like Android system, it can run various types of applications (known as DAPP, bitcoin is one of them). The type of block chain data used depends on the block chain running on DAPP. The most typical example: currency, private equity, public equity, voting, contract, degree / certificate of patent, etc..

(Wang Zun) a: use block chain data a lot, I give some directions

Based on the data statistics and analysis

For example, the number of transactions, the transaction amount, the number of active data address common statistical index. These indicators can reflect the health degree of encryption currency “and the development situation, to enhance the efficiency of. At the same time, we have some basic indicators to do the definition and modification. For example, the number of transactions, we believe that the traditional way of statistics every day how much money transcation is not reasonable, we pay more attention to how much transfer behavior, so we take from the perspective of transaction made more detailed statistics.

Based on the characteristics of production statistics and label

We note that the exchange label, pools and pool miners labels, as well as the level of market investors label and so on. Based on these, we made some interesting statistical indicators, such as class, the number of new deposit in exchange, every miner quantity also made token distribution, observation of a token is what type of address hold. Some of these indicators, can reflect the development status of the project, such as a normal distribution in the token project, the exchange should be accounted for in what is reasonable? Some indicators can be used to study the encryption currency of fundamental value, for example, we found that the correlation between the quantity and price of miner high. This is because the number of miner increases the public chain activity will influence the price; or because the miners will be realized mining income timing will affect the price?

Research and analysis of the valuation bubble

Study on how to reasonable on encryption currency valuation, the data is very important chain. The intrinsic value of encryption currency is reflected by the chain of the data in the field has made some impressive results and discussion, such as the PE Ratio NVT based on Metcalfe ‘s Law NVM based on Fisher switched to explore and try and so on. But as I mentioned in one of the problems in the present research, see the data used are very basic, this is probably due to the underlying infrastructure development of data services to. We are looking forward to discuss and study the formation of valuation based on the data of the deeper dimensions.

In addition to the study of encryption currency valuations, there are also some researchers to conduct research and Analysis on encryption currency bubble, such as the use of Phillips et al. (2011, 2013) of the GSADF detection of Bitcoin foam.

Because of the characteristics of the blockchain, so we can get some other areas it is difficult to get the data, it not only for the analysis of value chain blocks, but also has the reference significance for other financial field. At the same time, behind these data reflect the behavior, psychology and game, very interesting.

Since 5. since the market has been in the crypto currency, volatility, and manipulation (the masses) emotionally driven, it is understandable to a new asset category. In your opinion, what time are we in the (encrypted currency) value can see some degree of stability? In the (encrypted currency) value before the real life scenes using digital assets are logical?

(Wang Guan) a: Thank you for your questions, the first question,

Limited to the existing infrastructure is very limited and landing scenarios, many digital asset prices still depend on the vision and consensus of the majority of the participants, this will inevitably lead to market information by the establishment and continuous periodic burst size. At the same time, the world currency itself has its own liquidity cycle, the superposition of these cycles, resulting in the high fluctuation of digital assets relative to the yuan.

  • Here we exclude legal currency in the world real assets pledge “stable currency and get some kind of” stability “”. Block chain asset volatility model of the marked slowdown, there are several aspects can be considered:
    1. as the value carrier behind the token application scene really began to produce a “value”, in other words, the service block chain technology represented by token through the “productivity” to replace our existing technical standards and solutions.

    2. of the general population for cognitive block chain technology ability gradually catch up with the mass, expectations of new things to eliminate information asymmetry.

    3. of course, between each other encryption currency is not the same, great individual differences, can not be generalized, some token are not “stable” students.

(Wang Guan) a: for the second question, if you are referring to the typical currency world payment scenarios, is not logical. So, most of the time we don’t use encryption currency, unless there are other special reasons, cross-border payments, privacy considerations etc….

Answer: (Daniel) with copycat coins into extinction time, stable currency (STO) will provide better supervision and stability under supervision of the global market.

Now you only a few countries in the world and very limited scenarios using BTC, but it will be better. You can look at the application like Wirex.

6. Hello, in your opinion, legal tender must collapse to make money and the encryption block chain landing (by mass adoption)? Related to this, these projects need to motivate cryptocurrencies (fuse) to become the mainstream?

(Essam) a: legal tender is not doomed to collapse, because there will be new people to understand the blockchain every day. Like Greece, countries such as Venezuela has proved that we accept digital currency much faster, but no matter whether the legal currency fails, digital currency will become mainstream in the future.

(Xu Yiji) a: Yes, when we say that the encryption or currency bitcoin first into the public view, it has some relationship with the financial crisis in 2012, but it was just a coincidence, it is hard to say whether there is a correlation between the two. Block chain has its own vision, block chain technology widely used will improve the block chain depends on the underlying infrastructure and how many users can enter the industry chain block.

(Wang Guan) a: as mentioned earlier, when regarded as the value carrier “token” began to produce “real value”. In other words, the service token represented by block chain technology “improve productivity when we replaced the existing technical standards and solutions.

7. what is the index looks not worth mentioning, but in the currency prices plummeted in fact is the key factor? That is to say what data or the crash factors and there was significant correlation between?

(Daniel) a: This is in any of the tech bubble, caused by people’s greed and herd mentality + Stockholm syndrome. We can see that the technology bubble in history. Tulip bubble and the Internet bubble, the Internet bubble era as has happened before, now, block chain industry will inevitably produce some similar problems or problems.

(Wang Guan) a: I guess not such a key index, the current digital assets transaction form, the influence factors of the extensive, can be described as a “super disorder”, or digital asset exchange worldwide through a global, high market liquidity has resulted in a common “game” or “collaboration”, then a game like, if there really is a “parameters” by the public in the moment of discovery, immediately failure. But for the whole industry, there are still the center of a large number of nodes and asymmetric information to a certain extent will exist

8. Hello, this is for the nebula team’s question, but there is no direct relationship between the market crash. It is mainly aimed at the Yellow book. I have been reading Chapter 3 – economic model and try to understand the details, because I am not economics, so can not seem to understand many of the elements.

I have been reading about in the recent token (tokens) and appreciate over time meaning, basically and the supply and demand increase, we also read that, in the long run, economic models such as currency inflation Nebula (quantity) each year up 3-4%, will prevent the token of appreciation.

Another problem is to understand the velocity of money. I hope you or anyone can share the relevant assets and how to influence the speed of digital asset value for more information and opinions. I have been reading, appreciation of the growth rate for the future NAS is very unfavorable, unless there is a mechanism of its inflation is better than that of the powerful staking model (token holding?) Or, as a token of combustion mechanism to create scarcity to increase the pressure of appreciation. I hope… Token Nebula team able to share more information in a simple and understandable way. I want to know whether PoD participants need to hold tokens in order to create scarcity in the network to promote digital asset appreciation.

I can see that in the third chapter, it is a little star cloud is seeking to create a slow growth or stable prices to avoid the fluctuation of tokens, and prevent it from rising. If the following can be explained from the book: “on the other hand, should control the price level increase speed, to prevent users from long time holds encryption currency, thereby reducing the speed of currency circulation.” Unless I missed something, or else that prevent price growth will become the target, taking into account the digital assets or any currency value growth may be negative. If (I view) are correct, it will damage the interests of investors. Thank you very much for your explanation. Thank you for your time.

(Tang Zaiyang) a: Hi, hello. I was one of the authors of the book. Thank you for reading. I try to answer your question.

When we talk about the “token”, it is usually used to refer to the utility and security token token. In the book, we do not take into account the differences. It is clear that this encryption currency was initially supposed to play basic role of money. According to Humes on the classical monetary quantity theory, will adjust the total price level, monetary long-term supply and demand equal. Usually, the currency (or encryption currency) rate should remain stable in healthy ecosystems. On the other hand, we do not say the token price (e.g., NAS) should be as stable as speed. As shown in equation eighth page book, the price level and the quantity of money and the total economic output (defined as GDP), which is in the ideal case.

9. price volatility shows that the overall market size and liquidity may be overestimated. Market cap as the market scale to measure the shortcomings often discussed. If you found a measure of liquidity and market price fluctuation tendency index coins better?

(also) answer: first of all, we look at the current project of the basic idea of value, you need to determine whether the project has intrinsic value. It has a technology or business model? It will succeed in business? Investment blockchain people tend to focus on technology and the nature of the business is not a specific project, we think this is a mistake. When I buy a token, I think the same important business model. You cannot avoid facing the encryption monetary business cycle. If you often deal, you may lose to the market, so it is best to buy and hold. The liquidity of assets is shrinking, but it is not just in the encryption market for many stock markets, liquidity assets worldwide are shrinking, so we think it is not overvalued. The encryption is a market in the stock market, and it than the NASDAQ and the New York stock exchange and other traditional stock market greater risk. So we see more liquid assets out of the market.

10. for PCTA, in order to maximize the interests of all members in the group, need to share what is the most important data point and cooperation?

(Xu Yiji) a: the most important part of PCTA is open, especially for public chain projects, public chain should be inclusive. From the beginning of this year, we saw almost no public chain enterprises especially for DApps developers and competition, they hope that the developers and the public chain “marriage”, only in their own development chain. But this is definitely not the best choice for developers, they want the user, so they will turn to the ecological system pursues the most users and the most active.

This is one reason why we want to start PCTA. The union of data sharing, in fact the public data chain is open to all, but when we want to develop an open ecosystem and prepare for more users, each chain between the data needs to be compatible with. Therefore, one thing is PCTA study is to share our views on the current block chain technology, and issued to each other’s advantages for the formation of a compatible ecological system, developers can easily play, users can easily move data between various chain according to the same criteria.

11. the current block chain ecosystem is in the initial stage, although there are some Dapps and games, but honestly, they are not very good. What is the creation of the first killer Dapp? You guess the function of what is possible? For you, let this killer Dapp establish how important in your block chain rather than rival [block] chain?

(Essam) answer: in most cases, you can connect with the game system 20 years ago, with the demand of the people with money are always moving, the recent Activision will inject 16 million block chain game – – free and strong and myth game series / -16M-A, the absolute associated with the game, the game is one of the blocks the fastest growing industry chain. This is the most important to our ecosystem, it will bring more users to the platform.

12. block chain in the world what kind of data is most in need of value ranking? Other members of the PCTA are included in the NAS plan value ranking algorithm, to improve their own blockchain availability and seekability? If so, the real world is what?

(Xu Yiji) a: the basic unit block chain should be. The value of Google as “PageRank” for each “page” ranking, we believe that the address value ranking is very important for the blockchain world.

PCTA is an open alliance, alliance members will share the view, showing each other in the blockchain technicalstrength, common development exploration block chain technology.

The value of NAS is a case, but certainly beyond the scope. In addition, the value of the NAS ranking algorithm is not only suitable for PCTA partners. We have the NR algorithm of open source, and open the API community and NAS partners. In the upcoming nebula NOVA, we will use the chain algorithm and running NR chain developers based on Incentive protocol (DIP), please look forward to!

13. add a view from the Daniel:

(Daniel) a: Hey everybody, this is Daniel, I am an encrypted currency area, since the beginning of 2015 in London, Credits Blockchain, and then co founded the INK project, and then Angel Plus VC, is now a partner of @Liquidity Capital, the joint venture is Tokenmania Group. We are one of the world’s largest provider of liquidity, accounting for two market trading volume 3%.

I think the theme and the market share some of my views. I really believe that the basis of technology, but after seeing the twisted side and block chain industry ecosystem how ridiculous, I tell people how to use the block chain to do more interested in real cases.

Basically, the blockchain fairy tale like the etheric Fang and EOS are very rare, and rebellious punk have their fun, but because of the nature of the block chain ecosystem is a business, this is a sad reality, so the basic revolution will not happen overnight. Before talking about the blockchain application, you need to find a business logic to earn profits and customer satisfaction.

If you do not have a valid business case, it is likely that your project will end like most block chain project, withered in this winter.

Blockchain construction of a breakthrough in the Internet environment, the financial system has a powerful, comparable with the traditional Internet environment. Some students graduating from college, Zuckerberg and Gates disguised himself as such a group of entrepreneurial heroes; fanatics to pay bills through investment projects. The above two groups constitute the majority of market participants, the manufacturer / distributor and user / buyers.

In addition to the exchange and purse, whether there is a real business case block chain application by the public use? Blockchain really can meet your needs? It will make the world better, contribute to air pollution, traffic congestion, health standards in rural areas, poverty or anything in real life? If your answer is negative, so that to solve air pollution, traffic congestion, hygienic standard for rural poverty, block chain project is a direct answer, the answer is effective effective answers?

Many of you think this is a technology with great potential to do all these, but I don’t agree. Block chain is a valuable technology, but now, people need not directly answer.

Because of the serious lack of effective business scenarios and application of large-scale use of (currency exchange, encryption, wallet and gambling applications in this case, the block chain calculation) data and market collapse has nothing to do, although there is a large amount of personal wealth into the block chain project, but the ongoing collapse and bad market which directly reflects the lack of our greed and the actual value of support.

There is no free lunch in the world.

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