First conclusions, everything is normal, but is good and bad market alternate market, market performance from cattle to bear. But most of the people, is expected to the end of the market are lower than expected. We will analyze from the market cycle and the psychological level, bitcoin nearly a year of market value, in the end how to look at.
The relationship between good and bad market prices
In theory, bitcoin bear market began in the end of 17, early 18, also is the good end of the market, the market began to bad. What this means is that when the market is good, the media and individuals will expand his influence naturally or half unconsciously, let any social circle of people to contact and understand bitcoin, which is a positive spiral, so when the price reached a high point, usually the highest point of heat exposure. Means that all bitcoin interest outside the capital has all the basic approach, the mood began to reverse.
At this time, a small sell-off will usually bring more panic and sell-off, as a media and ordinary people, this time the mentality is to reduce shrinkage, stop recommended exposure, increased negative news also exacerbate panic, more people began to sell in exchange for cash. This is a negative spiral, so the premise of no improvement in the overall market, the market is usually not a new game player admission and incremental funding, which is why only a few lucky people, can be in when a downturn in the market just bought.
The hunters and the money is what to do? One part is made of a bull market, is left to stop. You have to believe that the vast majority of people are not possible to precisely fled the top hunters, so these people usually give up a part of the top and bottom income, this part of us can be counted as a rational investor, these people may fall again when buying in batches, or the adjustment of these funds, is now in the market active capital.
So logical, if the money does not buy, liquidity will become worse, the price will further decline in the market, and these funds are usually high in time or high cash funds, therefore usually more than leave the flesh chip number, only when the smart money back to the venue, the venue of floating chips less, there are a small amount of money comes into play, the market will appear at the bottom of lift.
This situation may appear at what time? Most people think that when the venue of the market rebound. How to find the reversal point?
The following contents are combined with psychological, technical and market cycle of personal point of view, does not constitute investment advice.
Reasonable expectations of market groups based on behavior
Any news about the market reaction is usually in the bear market are ineffective, so the cycle judgment should be collective behavior more rational market participants on the basis of the current relatively is determined by the following factors.
Half 1. bitcoin’s next output (scarcity promotion)
Cycle 2. of the market price (market cycle)
3. changes in psychological expectations of more mature markets (investment)
The first point is not to say, it is expected that in April 2020 about bitcoin mining output by half, the scarcity of ascension is the most intuitive market incentives, and there is a lot of evidence that the previous bull market are related to it, for the convenience of analysis, there will be two times before the half time to write, respectively in November 2012 and July 2016.
We focus on the second and third points, second points in that any market prices are cyclical fluctuations, the amplitude of the swing while random, but the cycle is relatively higher, while the influence of bitcoin by 4 years to halve the fixed output factors, the market cycle basically keeps stable, as follows figure.
Early price fluctuations do not have much reference value, so we only see from the beginning of 12 market cycle. We believe that the 09 birth bitcoin, 13 years in the market to start time for 9 months 13 years (personal opinion, for the approximate time, 2) for 17 years 3 months, consistent with the previously mentioned a period of 4 years, here is in advance, we will in the following article the third point mentioned, so here can have a general judgment is 3 17 years less than 4 years later, will be the next cycle coming around early 2021. There is a point of view is not yet verified, except for a small period of 4 years or so, bitcoin may have a period of 10 years, two will overlay form the market, we are in the period of recession, so this may lower the bull bear market low, high point cannot be reached before high.
The third point is in a relatively mature market, changes in mental state will each of the participants, because history will repeat itself, but it is not a simple repeat. When all people have the same expectations and ahead of the layout, the market will be ignited in advance, all people did not feel the bottom will be lower when the end. This is why the novice from chasing the high, master died of hunters, because the bull bear hunters layout easy, difficult, group behavior will change after the accumulation of experience, so according to this expectation, the starting time will advance.
Forecast of macro market
Due to the use of bitcoin value has not been fully universal, objective principle, we should assume that after this factor did not improve or worsen, then the market will not have a huge amount of new funds special admission, under such conditions, the market behavior will usually meet the mature market psychological expectations, it is difficult to break through the previous highs because, the smart money will learn from previous experience, at the high point before lighten leave by watching the history, currency and price changes, combined with the psychological correction, we can have the following judgment.
The market by the bears turn cattle usually occurs in the bitcoin half expected six months to a year, half a day to temporary in the market has absorbed the change, so the price will fall.
The bull market started later than half time is usually about half a year, with the market cycle, the next bull market start is probably at the beginning of 2021.
Assume the market no incremental funding, because of funding is expected to top the correction, combined with the average daily fluctuations bitcoin 20% the next bull market top should be revised down about 20%, a reasonable point is about 15000.
In summary, if bitcoin does not realize the value leap, other chain does not appear large-scale outbreak, so:
1) market sentiment will be in the 2019 year 10 month by the bears turn cattle, low is expected to appear in the same year 7 month, this is the first time layout.
2) 2020 years 4 months or so bitcoin prices will halve the callback, this is the first admission opportunity.
3 2020 to 2021) at the end of the bull market coming at the beginning of the year, this is the last chance of admission, the market price will reach a reasonable point 15000, consider this time out or lighten up.
I think this is a reasonable and neutral market speculation, neither optimistic nor pessimistic. Incidentally, this bear market is estimated using this algorithm, the bottom is roughly 3000-3100, the bull market after a reasonable point is to continue to mad cow market or the correction is unable to determine how much depends on the amount of new money, can only leave later. On the other, and the amount of money people agree on the judgment of the larger, all the date mentioned above will be more likely to advance, but the above conclusion is wave cycle theory and Kang agree without prior without previous consultation, more than.
First here today, thank you.