Killed bitcoin, not killing NVIDIA

These days around coins all the friends looked at their faces with explosion, green look, turned down his stock account, learn the spirit of Ah Q: there as many people and I lose, don’t go back tonight to kneel washboard.

Think of last year is the same point in time, bitcoin price of $9000. When someone asked me, how many bitcoin value? Fundamental to what is good? In fact, this is a difficult question to answer, after all, we are unable to evaluate a something that does not exist. It was immediately refused to discuss bitcoin, turned on the recommendation of the NVIDIA shares. Now, I and both of them are fellow sufferers.

3 – the first lesson from this thing I don’t chat with his wife, bitcoin, easily beaten; article two, do not recommend the stock to the mother-in-law, do not eat chopsticks also uncomfortable; Article three, do not say to their family members on the investment, they will think you have IQ problems.

One

Seeing his dinner guests, he saw the building collapsed

But a year ago, the two stars are not the scene.

Last year, bitcoin soared into the stage, directly from 1000 soared to $20000, 1 times in 20 years, darling, making the rich faster than the deep North of Guangzhou demolition. Especially in the 9 to December, 3 months or 8 times, is crazy.

Source: English for Finance

On the value of speed in the bitcoin bubble, in front of 10 Chinese market in one block is also just 0.05 combat slag.

But for the mining of this, I don’t know much, bitcoin price trend metaphysics is to understand, we can only stay away. But this thing I still know, after all, computing power must have basic equipment, did not appear before a specific currency special machine, most used is NVIDIA’s GPU. So for me this timid, afraid to make digital currency lively, last year saw a digital currency so fire, the first thought is to pay attention to buy NVIDIA shares.

Now, I am always through the observation of side phenomenon to stock selection, so the consumer companies understand, just for NVIDIA, on time or late, when I saw the already high valuation. The first concern of NVIDIA also not because of digital currency, but the game.

3 the beginning of the month last year, the “Jedi survival” suddenly popular game to eat chicken. The end of the tour, often playing friends should also know that the end of the tour, on a global hit is the league, but the League general game player does not need too good GPU graphics card. The “survival” of the large Jedi 3D game modeling real-time data, computing power requirements is very high; and the blue hole (development company) for the optimization of “survival” is also the Jedi general, resulting in “Jedi survival” requirements for the GPU overall than a league high grade. The same as the online games, “Jedi survival” minimum configuration must also be in the high-end graphics card, and the hero alliance entry-level graphics can be, the gap is too big.

(source: Steam, WeGame)

Last April I saw around the Internet cafes because GPU upgrade for a large number of host replacement, also have a lot of friends in order to play the “survival” and the host computer to the Jedi are changed, in order to find a better graphics card, then I feel not miss British weida.

(the “survival” heat source: Baidu index)

The fact that this logic is only half of the game, the game continued to heat wave to the first half of the 2018 years. NVIDIA from the beginning of 2017, the 6 consecutive quarter of the game business performance is very good, but also slow to rise in prices over the same period. But the actual valuation and game business itself may have little relationship.

The three quarter of this year, NVIDIA two months the price cut directly, once back to 1 years ago, as the crash.

If bitcoin fell this thing, in addition to their own bubble, and bitcoin is bifurcation, war, but the technology I don’t understand these things. Just two from the market point of view, as if I were a later bought into the people, how to ensure my profit? Intended profit probability * = odds, just think about this question, I will not touch the bitcoin, because I have two advantages.

But NVIDIA’s board game I was able to understand, the performance has been put in here. And this is my NVIDIA wave fell from the year, obviously felt the chicken fever has subsided, in June 6 home line of rural town to visit relatives, found that Internet cafes host GPU update to GTX 1060 of the high-end graphics card. Think, this wave of card replacement permeability estimation almost at the top, go ahead.

Just did not expect this month NVIDIA fell up A rout is like a landslide., living conditions is completely beyond my expectations. 3 years 10 times the big bull stock, was also showed the fragile when abandoned.

Two

3 years 10 times the NVIDIA

NVIDIA is 2013~2017 years in the whole world the best performance of the stock market, you can look at the investigation report of Boston.

Only on price, this wave of the bull market stocks dot.com shares contributed too much, or top of a stack of technology companies, FAANG in 2018 before the trend is unstoppable, and NVIDIA is high in this pile of dot.com shares up again. U.S. stocks is a mature market, may not like bitcoin is completely zero and game, so to go for cattle certainly need the support of the fundamentals, but want to win the market share rose first, also need to have emotional resonance, that is to enhance the valuation.

NVIDIA in addition to the PC end of the game the cash cow business valuation, elasticity of other core business in what?

The data and AI, but also the future of automatic driving.

Three

The core logic of inve

NVIDIA GPU market is a perennial leader, while machine learning these years of rapid popularity, one reason is to enhance the ability of GPU computing. GPU graphics processor (Graphics Processing unit) multi core parallel processing ability of multidimensional data and geometry data is very strong, so it is widely used in graphics processing. The general consumer contact NVIDIA also because his GPU, especially for large-scale 3D games, for computing graphics demanding, so the business driving force can be inferred by the popularity of 3D games.

(NVIDIA GTX 1080Ti graphics source: NVIDIA website)

But in fact the parallel computing characteristics of GPU also can be widely used in all data parallel applications, such as large data processing.

The application of every kind of artificial intelligence, but the most important is the underlying data, algorithms and provide computing power chips (such as GPU). The essence of the development of parallel computing and cloud computing, is the central premise of the popularity of artificial intelligence of a lot of training, and the amount of training data distributed application; the lack of deep learning will make itself less efficient than human engineer algorithm. So huge amounts of data, and deep learning GPU can be said to be three pushes the prosperity of the artificial intelligence.

Each company needs massive data processing and data center, the data center on the computing power provided by GPU. NVIDIA data center business in recent years to grow very well, is now NVIDIA second business, but is able to see the annual revenue growth in slow decline, this quarter data center revenue growth of 58.1%, the lowest growth rate in recent years. This game and the growth rate also hit a two-year low, revenue growth of only 13%. In addition to NVIDIA and a logic, if the car if to the autopilot, the ability of dealing with data must be very strong, but the business volume is too small, the revenue accounted for 5%, Q3 growth rate is only 19%,

The first big business and second business at the same time, growth is less than expected, in addition to the automatic driving business growth power still looks a bit weak, so it is no way to maintain live stock.

Q3 telephone conference, NVIDIA said, because GPU can be used in digital currency mining, the two encryption currency frenzy, NVIDIA card game makes the price rise, so last year the NVIDIA GPU chip can be said that the volume of price. And this year the same logic, but in the opposite direction, for mining down crypto currency GPU product demand, the company from personal computer manufacturer revenue dropped almost 40%. Now the NVIDIA GPU channel distributors and retailers inventory is estimated to have a quarter to return to normal level.

In fact, in August before citron a NVIDIA’s short report, to the target price also fell to 200, when NVIDIA’s share price was 250, so the 20% fall did not make me too concerned about the report. 10 points and I turned citron’s report, the core logic is that NVIDIA’s valuation is too expensive, the other logic can only hint at potential risk points.

But now it seems that the report made by the time is very interesting, it should be after a considerable consideration. But after the recent NVIDIA cut, citron in turn started to do more, so essentially for citron NVIDIA also only dare to say valuations and the industry cycle, temporarily have no actual evidence to prove too much of the deterioration of the core competitiveness of NVIDIA, only by the prompt risk.

But in addition to the impact of their business factors, now there is a bigger problem in front of NVIDIA: a trade war.

Recently, the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of industry and security (Departmentof Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security, BIS) introduced according to a key emerging and basic technology and related products export control framework (AI), artificial intelligence and machine learning technology, microprocessor technology impressively.

If the introduction of further measures, fear will affect Intel, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, TI all American semiconductor on behalf of the company in the overseas business.

From the company perspective, no people and interests can not go, NVIDIA 75% revenue from the Asia Pacific China, such a big market, all the chip companies will not take the initiative to give up. But this policy belongs to the dimensionality reduction attack, chip stocks poor also affect trade war is expected, but the subsequent effects cannot be analyzed completely now.

If the impact of eliminating trade war, NVIDIA now fall is still very worthy of attention.

After all, in the game, NVIDIA is absolutely leading graphics card, AI and automatic driving prospects are the stars of the sea bottom support, two businesses are computing ability, and NVIDIA is on behalf of general computing power now, Google TPU and other ASIC for the substitution effect of GPU in the end how strong. Still have to go step by step. The inventory problem will slowly cleared before, no other clear computing alternatives, NVIDIA did have unlimited imagination.

Four

epilogue

These years about the capital market to God, just like last year’s Tencent, NVIDIA, FAANG, and completely cannot read bitcoin. But people who founded the company, still have to accept the valuation of human.

If bitcoin prices plummeted let me see the human nature, Na Ying Knowlton Davies double play, and let me want to understand another thing.

In peacetime, the enthusiasm for technology companies, like similar weapons of war and fanaticism, fans and watch sports games are different approaches but equally satisfactory results. The wave of technology stocks and the bubble will always exist at the same time, the human nature, can not be avoided.

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